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 Markov Models


Edge Caching Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning and Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the escalating challenge of redundant data transmission in networks. The surge in traffic has strained backhaul links and backbone networks, prompting the exploration of caching solutions at the edge router. Existing work primarily relies on Markov Decision Processes (MDP) for caching issues, assuming fixed-time interval decisions; however, real-world scenarios involve random request arrivals, and despite the critical role of various file characteristics in determining an optimal caching policy, none of the related existing work considers all these file characteristics in forming a caching policy. In this paper, first, we formulate the caching problem using a semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) to accommodate the continuous-time nature of real-world scenarios allowing for caching decisions at random times upon file requests. Then, we propose a double deep Q-learning-based caching approach that comprehensively accounts for file features such as lifetime, size, and importance. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to a recent Deep Reinforcement Learning-based method. Furthermore, we extend our work to include a Transfer Learning (TL) approach to account for changes in file request rates in the SMDP framework. The proposed TL approach exhibits fast convergence, even in scenarios with increased differences in request rates between source and target domains, presenting a promising solution to the dynamic challenges of caching in real-world environments. HE rapid growth of mobile device applications has led to a significant increase in redundant data transmission, problems, this information is not available beforehand. as many users inquire about contents from a data center. This Here, model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) schemes come surge in traffic has placed a heavy burden on backhaul links into the picture. An agent exploiting an RL-based scheme is and backbone networks [1].


Scaling up Dynamic Edge Partition Models via Stochastic Gradient MCMC

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The edge partition model (EPM) is a generative model for extracting an overlapping community structure from static graph-structured data. In the EPM, the gamma process (GaP) prior is adopted to infer the appropriate number of latent communities, and each vertex is endowed with a gamma distributed positive memberships vector. Despite having many attractive properties, inference in the EPM is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that prevent it from being applied to massive network data. In this paper, we generalize the EPM to account for dynamic enviroment by representing each vertex with a positive memberships vector constructed using Dirichlet prior specification, and capturing the time-evolving behaviour of vertices via a Dirichlet Markov chain construction. A simple-to-implement Gibbs sampler is proposed to perform posterior computation using Negative- Binomial augmentation technique. For large network data, we propose a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithm for scalable inference in the proposed model. The experimental results show that the novel methods achieve competitive performance in terms of link prediction, while being much faster.


Learning Logic Specifications for Policy Guidance in POMDPs: an Inductive Logic Programming Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are a powerful framework for planning under uncertainty. They allow to model state uncertainty as a belief probability distribution. Approximate solvers based on Monte Carlo sampling show great success to relax the computational demand and perform online planning. However, scaling to complex realistic domains with many actions and long planning horizons is still a major challenge, and a key point to achieve good performance is guiding the action-selection process with domain-dependent policy heuristics which are tailored for the specific application domain. We propose to learn high-quality heuristics from POMDP traces of executions generated by any solver. We convert the belief-action pairs to a logical semantics, and exploit data- and time-efficient Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) to generate interpretable belief-based policy specifications, which are then used as online heuristics. We evaluate thoroughly our methodology on two notoriously challenging POMDP problems, involving large action spaces and long planning horizons, namely, rocksample and pocman. Considering different state-of-the-art online POMDP solvers, including POMCP, DESPOT and AdaOPS, we show that learned heuristics expressed in Answer Set Programming (ASP) yield performance superior to neural networks and similar to optimal handcrafted task-specific heuristics within lower computational time. Moreover, they well generalize to more challenging scenarios not experienced in the training phase (e.g., increasing rocks and grid size in rocksample, incrementing the size of the map and the aggressivity of ghosts in pocman).


Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Processes for Heterogeneous Overdispersed Count Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture the expressive latent transition structure and bursty dynamics behind count sequences. In particular, PGDSs demonstrate superior performance in terms of data imputation and prediction, compared with canonical linear dynamical system (LDS) based methods. Despite these advantages, PGDS cannot capture the heterogeneous overdispersed behaviours of the underlying dynamic processes. To mitigate this defect, we propose a negative-binomial-randomized gamma Markov process, which not only significantly improves the predictive performance of the proposed dynamical system, but also facilitates the fast convergence of the inference algorithm. Moreover, we develop methods to estimate both factor-structured and graph-structured transition dynamics, which enable us to infer more explainable latent structure, compared with PGDSs. Finally, we demonstrate the explainable latent structure learned by the proposed method, and show its superior performance in imputing missing data and forecasting future observations, compared with the related models.


Solving Multi-Entity Robotic Problems Using Permutation Invariant Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Challenges in real-world robotic applications often stem from managing multiple, dynamically varying entities such as neighboring robots, manipulable objects, and navigation goals. Existing multi-agent control strategies face scalability limitations, struggling to handle arbitrary numbers of entities. Additionally, they often rely on engineered heuristics for assigning entities among agents. We propose a data driven approach to address these limitations by introducing a decentralized control system using neural network policies trained in simulation. Leveraging permutation invariant neural network architectures and modelfree reinforcement learning, our approach allows control agents to autonomously determine the relative importance of different entities without being biased by ordering or limited by a fixed capacity. We prove the effectiveness of our architectural choice through experiments with three exemplary multi-entity problems. Our analysis underscores the pivotal role of the end-to-end trained permutation invariant encoders in achieving scalability and improving the task performance in multi-object manipulation or multi-goal navigation problems. Multi-entity problems studied in this work. For example, human workers collaborate with problem where robots are given multiple navigation goals, co-workers to construct structures, or a group of friends Figure 1B illustrates box packing problem where robots have splits up to find various products in a grocery store.


Provably Efficient Partially Observable Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Hindsight Observation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work pioneers regret analysis of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in partially observable environments with hindsight observation, addressing a gap in theoretical exploration. We introduce a novel formulation that integrates hindsight observations into a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework, where the goal is to optimize accumulated reward under the entropic risk measure. We develop the first provably efficient RL algorithm tailored for this setting. We also prove by rigorous analysis that our algorithm achieves polynomial regret $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{e^{|{\gamma}|H}-1}{|{\gamma}|H}H^2\sqrt{KHS^2OA}\right)$, which outperforms or matches existing upper bounds when the model degenerates to risk-neutral or fully observable settings. We adopt the method of change-of-measure and develop a novel analytical tool of beta vectors to streamline mathematical derivations. These techniques are of particular interest to the theoretical study of reinforcement learning.


Advancing sleep detection by modelling weak label sets: A novel weakly supervised learning approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding sleep and activity patterns plays a crucial role in physical and mental health. This study introduces a novel approach for sleep detection using weakly supervised learning for scenarios where reliable ground truth labels are unavailable. The proposed method relies on a set of weak labels, derived from the predictions generated by conventional sleep detection algorithms. Introducing a novel approach, we suggest a novel generalised non-linear statistical model in which the number of weak sleep labels is modelled as outcome of a binomial distribution. The probability of sleep in the binomial distribution is linked to the outcomes of neural networks trained to detect sleep based on actigraphy. We show that maximizing the likelihood function of the model, is equivalent to minimizing the soft cross-entropy loss. Additionally, we explored the use of the Brier score as a loss function for weak labels. The efficacy of the suggested modelling framework was demonstrated using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis dataset. A \gls{lstm} trained on the soft cross-entropy outperformed conventional sleep detection algorithms, other neural network architectures and loss functions in accuracy and model calibration. This research not only advances sleep detection techniques in scenarios where ground truth data is scarce but also contributes to the broader field of weakly supervised learning by introducing innovative approach in modelling sets of weak labels.


Markovletics: Methods and A Novel Application for Learning Continuous-Time Markov Chain Mixtures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sequential data naturally arises from user engagement on digital platforms like social media, music streaming services, and web navigation, encapsulating evolving user preferences and behaviors through continuous information streams. A notable unresolved query in stochastic processes is learning mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). While there is progress in learning mixtures of discrete-time Markov chains with recovery guarantees [GKV16,ST23,KTT2023], the continuous scenario uncovers unique unexplored challenges. The intrigue in CTMC mixtures stems from their potential to model intricate continuous-time stochastic processes prevalent in various fields including social media, finance, and biology. In this study, we introduce a novel framework for exploring CTMCs, emphasizing the influence of observed trails' length and mixture parameters on problem regimes, which demands specific algorithms. Through thorough experimentation, we examine the impact of discretizing continuous-time trails on the learnability of the continuous-time mixture, given that these processes are often observed via discrete, resource-demanding observations. Our comparative analysis with leading methods explores sample complexity and the trade-off between the number of trails and their lengths, offering crucial insights for method selection in different problem instances. We apply our algorithms on an extensive collection of Lastfm's user-generated trails spanning three years, demonstrating the capability of our algorithms to differentiate diverse user preferences. We pioneer the use of CTMC mixtures on a basketball passing dataset to unveil intricate offensive tactics of NBA teams. This underscores the pragmatic utility and versatility of our proposed framework. All results presented in this study are replicable, and we provide the implementations to facilitate reproducibility.


A Dynamical View of the Question of Why

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.


A Review of Data Mining in Personalized Education: Current Trends and Future Prospects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personalized education, tailored to individual student needs, leverages educational technology and artificial intelligence (AI) in the digital age to enhance learning effectiveness. The integration of AI in educational platforms provides insights into academic performance, learning preferences, and behaviors, optimizing the personal learning process. Driven by data mining techniques, it not only benefits students but also provides educators and institutions with tools to craft customized learning experiences. To offer a comprehensive review of recent advancements in personalized educational data mining, this paper focuses on four primary scenarios: educational recommendation, cognitive diagnosis, knowledge tracing, and learning analysis. This paper presents a structured taxonomy for each area, compiles commonly used datasets, and identifies future research directions, emphasizing the role of data mining in enhancing personalized education and paving the way for future exploration and innovation.