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 Markov Models


Provable Policy Gradient Methods for Average-Reward Markov Potential Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study Markov potential games under the infinite horizon average reward criterion. Most previous studies have been for discounted rewards. We prove that both algorithms based on independent policy gradient and independent natural policy gradient converge globally to a Nash equilibrium for the average reward criterion. To set the stage for gradient-based methods, we first establish that the average reward is a smooth function of policies and provide sensitivity bounds for the differential value functions, under certain conditions on ergodicity and the second largest eigenvalue of the underlying Markov decision process (MDP). We prove that three algorithms, policy gradient, proximal-Q, and natural policy gradient (NPG), converge to an $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium with time complexity $O(\frac{1}{\epsilon^2})$, given a gradient/differential Q function oracle. When policy gradients have to be estimated, we propose an algorithm with $\tilde{O}(\frac{1}{\min_{s,a}\pi(a|s)\delta})$ sample complexity to achieve $\delta$ approximation error w.r.t~the $\ell_2$ norm. Equipped with the estimator, we derive the first sample complexity analysis for a policy gradient ascent algorithm, featuring a sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(1/\epsilon^5)$. Simulation studies are presented.


Safe Merging in Mixed Traffic with Confidence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this letter, we present an approach for learning human driving behavior, without relying on specific model structures or prior distributions, in a mixed-traffic environment where connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) coexist with human-driven vehicles (HDVs). We employ conformal prediction to obtain theoretical safety guarantees and use real-world traffic data to validate our approach. Then, we design a controller that ensures effective merging of CAVs with HDVs with safety guarantees. We provide numerical simulations to illustrate the efficacy of the control approach.


CEASE: Collision-Evaluation-based Active Sense System for Collaborative Robotic Arms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Collision detection via visual fences can significantly enhance the safety of collaborative robotic arms. Existing work typically performs such detection based on pre-deployed stationary cameras outside the robotic arm's workspace. These stationary cameras can only provide a restricted detection range and constrain the mobility of the robotic system. To cope with this issue, we propose an active sense method enabling a wide range of collision risk evaluation in dynamic scenarios. First, an active vision mechanism is implemented by equipping cameras with additional degrees of rotation. Considering the uncertainty in the active sense, we design a state confidence envelope to uniformly characterize both known and potential dynamic obstacles. Subsequently, using the observation-based uncertainty evolution, collision risk is evaluated by the prediction of obstacle envelopes. On this basis, a Markov decision process was employed to search for an optimal observation sequence of the active sense system, which enlarges the field of observation and reduces uncertainties in the state estimation of surrounding obstacles. Simulation and real-world experiments consistently demonstrate a 168% increase in the observation time coverage of typical dynamic humanoid obstacles compared to the method using stationary cameras, which underscores our system's effectiveness in collision risk tracking and enhancing the safety of robotic arms.


Mastering Memory Tasks with World Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents struggle with long-term dependencies. This limits their ability to effectively solve tasks involving extended time gaps between actions and outcomes, or tasks demanding the recalling of distant observations to inform current actions. To improve temporal coherence, we integrate a new family of state space models (SSMs) in world models of MBRL agents to present a new method, Recall to Imagine (R2I). This integration aims to enhance both long-term memory and long-horizon credit assignment. Through a diverse set of illustrative tasks, we systematically demonstrate that R2I not only establishes a new state-of-the-art for challenging memory and credit assignment RL tasks, such as BSuite and POPGym, but also showcases superhuman performance in the complex memory domain of Memory Maze. At the same time, it upholds comparable performance in classic RL tasks, such as Atari and DMC, suggesting the generality of our method. We also show that R2I is faster than the state-of-the-art MBRL method, DreamerV3, resulting in faster wall-time convergence.


RL-CFR: Improving Action Abstraction for Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games with Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective action abstraction is crucial in tackling challenges associated with large action spaces in Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games (IIEFGs). However, due to the vast state space and computational complexity in IIEFGs, existing methods often rely on fixed abstractions, resulting in sub-optimal performance. In response, we introduce RL-CFR, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) approach for dynamic action abstraction. RL-CFR builds upon our innovative Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation, with states corresponding to public information and actions represented as feature vectors indicating specific action abstractions. The reward is defined as the expected payoff difference between the selected and default action abstractions. RL-CFR constructs a game tree with RL-guided action abstractions and utilizes counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) for strategy derivation. Impressively, it can be trained from scratch, achieving higher expected payoff without increased CFR solving time. In experiments on Heads-up No-limit Texas Hold'em, RL-CFR outperforms ReBeL's replication and Slumbot, demonstrating significant win-rate margins of $64\pm 11$ and $84\pm 17$ mbb/hand, respectively.


Cooperative Bayesian Optimization for Imperfect Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a cooperative Bayesian optimization problem for optimizing black-box functions of two variables where two agents choose together at which points to query the function but have only control over one variable each. This setting is inspired by human-AI teamwork, where an AI-assistant helps its human user solve a problem, in this simplest case, collaborative optimization. We formulate the solution as sequential decision-making, where the agent we control models the user as a computationally rational agent with prior knowledge about the function. We show that strategic planning of the queries enables better identification of the global maximum of the function as long as the user avoids excessive exploration. This planning is made possible by using Bayes Adaptive Monte Carlo planning and by endowing the agent with a user model that accounts for conservative belief updates and exploratory sampling of the points to query.


Real-Time Planning Under Uncertainty for AUVs Using Virtual Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reliable localization is an essential capability for marine robots navigating in GPS-denied environments. SLAM, commonly used to mitigate dead reckoning errors, still fails in feature-sparse environments or with limited-range sensors. Pose estimation can be improved by incorporating the uncertainty prediction of future poses into the planning process and choosing actions that reduce uncertainty. However, performing belief propagation is computationally costly, especially when operating in large-scale environments. This work proposes a computationally efficient planning under uncertainty frame-work suitable for large-scale, feature-sparse environments. Our strategy leverages SLAM graph and occupancy map data obtained from a prior exploration phase to create a virtual map, describing the uncertainty of each map cell using a multivariate Gaussian. The virtual map is then used as a cost map in the planning phase, and performing belief propagation at each step is avoided. A receding horizon planning strategy is implemented, managing a goal-reaching and uncertainty-reduction tradeoff. Simulation experiments in a realistic underwater environment validate this approach. Experimental comparisons against a full belief propagation approach and a standard shortest-distance approach are conducted.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Algorithm Selection: A Proof-of-Principle Study on Differential Evolution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Evolutionary algorithms, such as Differential Evolution, excel in solving real-parameter optimization challenges. However, the effectiveness of a single algorithm varies across different problem instances, necessitating considerable efforts in algorithm selection or configuration. This paper aims to address the limitation by leveraging the complementary strengths of a group of algorithms and dynamically scheduling them throughout the optimization progress for specific problems. We propose a deep reinforcement learning-based dynamic algorithm selection framework to accomplish this task. Our approach models the dynamic algorithm selection a Markov Decision Process, training an agent in a policy gradient manner to select the most suitable algorithm according to the features observed during the optimization process. To empower the agent with the necessary information, our framework incorporates a thoughtful design of landscape and algorithmic features. Meanwhile, we employ a sophisticated deep neural network model to infer the optimal action, ensuring informed algorithm selections. Additionally, an algorithm context restoration mechanism is embedded to facilitate smooth switching among different algorithms. These mechanisms together enable our framework to seamlessly select and switch algorithms in a dynamic online fashion. Notably, the proposed framework is simple and generic, offering potential improvements across a broad spectrum of evolutionary algorithms. As a proof-of-principle study, we apply this framework to a group of Differential Evolution algorithms. The experimental results showcase the remarkable effectiveness of the proposed framework, not only enhancing the overall optimization performance but also demonstrating favorable generalization ability across different problem classes.


Efficient Episodic Memory Utilization of Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), agents aim to achieve a common goal, such as defeating enemies or scoring a goal. Existing MARL algorithms are effective but still require significant learning time and often get trapped in local optima by complex tasks, subsequently failing to discover a goal-reaching policy. To address this, we introduce Efficient episodic Memory Utilization (EMU) for MARL, with two primary objectives: (a) accelerating reinforcement learning by leveraging semantically coherent memory from an episodic buffer and (b) selectively promoting desirable transitions to prevent local convergence. To achieve (a), EMU incorporates a trainable encoder/decoder structure alongside MARL, creating coherent memory embeddings that facilitate exploratory memory recall. To achieve (b), EMU introduces a novel reward structure called episodic incentive based on the desirability of states. This reward improves the TD target in Q-learning and acts as an additional incentive for desirable transitions. We provide theoretical support for the proposed incentive and demonstrate the effectiveness of EMU compared to conventional episodic control. The proposed method is evaluated in StarCraft II and Google Research Football, and empirical results indicate further performance improvement over state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/HyunghoNa/EMU.


Regularized DeepIV with Model Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. While recent advancements in machine learning have introduced flexible methods for IV estimation, they often encounter one or more of the following limitations: (1) restricting the IV regression to be uniquely identified; (2) requiring minimax computation oracle, which is highly unstable in practice; (3) absence of model selection procedure. In this paper, we present the first method and analysis that can avoid all three limitations, while still enabling general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a minimax-oracle-free method called Regularized DeepIV (RDIV) regression that can converge to the least-norm IV solution. Our method consists of two stages: first, we learn the conditional distribution of covariates, and by utilizing the learned distribution, we learn the estimator by minimizing a Tikhonov-regularized loss function. We further show that our method allows model selection procedures that can achieve the oracle rates in the misspecified regime. When extended to an iterative estimator, our method matches the current state-of-the-art convergence rate. Our method is a Tikhonov regularized variant of the popular DeepIV method with a non-parametric MLE first-stage estimator, and our results provide the first rigorous guarantees for this empirically used method, showcasing the importance of regularization which was absent from the original work.