Recently there has been substantial interest in spectral methods for learning dynamical systems. These methods are popular since they often offer a good tradeoff between computational and statistical efficiency. Unfortunately, they can be difficult to use and extend in practice: e.g., they can make it difficult to incorporate prior information such as sparsity or structure.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal can lead to arbitrarily inaccurate estimates of the target distribution. This paper presents a new method for automatically adapting the proposal using an approximation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the proposal distribution. The method is very flexible, applicable to any parameterized proposal distribution and it supports online and batch variants. We use the new framework to adapt powerful proposal distributions with rich parameterizations based upon neural networks leading to Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (NASMC). Experiments indicate that NASMC significantly improves inference in a non-linear state space model outperforming adaptive proposal methods including the Extended Kalman and Unscented Particle Filters. Experiments also indicate that improved inference translates into improved parameter learning when NASMC is used as a subroutine of Particle Marginal Metropolis Hastings. Finally we show that NASMC is able to train a latent variable recurrent neural network (LV-RNN) achieving results that compete with the state-of-the-art for polymorphic music modelling. NASMC can be seen as bridging the gap between adaptive SMC methods and the recent work in scalable, black-box variational inference.

The interval is computed from a single finite-length sample path from the Markov chain, and does not require the knowledge of any parameters of the chain. This stands in contrast to previous approaches, which either only provide point estimates, or require a reset mechanism, or additional prior knowledge.

Symmetry breaking is a technique for speeding up propositional satisfiability testing by adding constraints to the theory that restrict the search space while preserving satisfiability. In this work, we extend symmetry breaking to the problem of model finding in weighted and unweighted relational theories, a class of problems that includes MAP inference in Markov Logic and similar statistical-relational languages. We introduce term symmetries, which are induced by an evidence set and extend to symmetries over a relational theory. We provide the important special case of term equivalent symmetries, showing that such symmetries can be found in low-degree polynomial time. We show how to break an exponential number of these symmetries with added constraints whose number is linear in the size of the domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques through experiments in two relational domains. We also discuss the connections between relational symmetry breaking and work on lifted inference in statistical-relational reasoning.

Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian posterior inference is a common approach used in machine learning. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures that are used are often discrete-time analogues of associated stochastic differential equations (SDEs). These SDEs are guaranteed to leave invariant the required posterior distribution. An area of current research addresses the computational benefits of stochastic gradient methods in this setting. Existing techniques rely on estimating the variance or covariance of the subsampling error, and typically assume constant variance. In this article, we propose a covariance-controlled adaptive Langevin thermostat that can effectively dissipate parameter-dependent noise while maintaining a desired target distribution. The proposed method achieves a substantial speedup over popular alternative schemes for large-scale machine learning applications.

To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness creates new challenges for sampler and parameter selection, since standard measures of sample quality like effective sample size do not account for asymptotic bias. To address these challenges, we introduce a new computable quality measure based on Stein's method that bounds the discrepancy between sample and target expectations over a large class of test functions. We use our tool to compare exact, biased, and deterministic sample sequences and illustrate applications to hyperparameter selection, convergence rate assessment, and quantifying bias-variance tradeoffs in posterior inference.

Markov networks are probabilistic graphical models that employ undirected graphs to depict conditional independence relationships among variables. Our focus lies in constraint-based structure learning, which entails learning the undirected graph from data through the execution of conditional independence tests. We establish theoretical limits concerning two critical aspects of constraint-based learning of Markov networks: the number of tests and the sizes of the conditioning sets. These bounds uncover an exciting interplay between the structural properties of the graph and the amount of tests required to learn a Markov network. The starting point of our work is that the graph parameter maximum pairwise connectivity, $\kappa$, that is, the maximum number of vertex-disjoint paths connecting a pair of vertices in the graph, is responsible for the sizes of independence tests required to learn the graph. On one hand, we show that at least one test with the size of the conditioning set at least $\kappa$ is always necessary. On the other hand, we prove that any graph can be learned by performing tests of size at most $\kappa$. This completely resolves the question of the minimum size of conditioning sets required to learn the graph. When it comes to the number of tests, our upper bound on the sizes of conditioning sets implies that every $n$-vertex graph can be learned by at most $n^{\kappa}$ tests with conditioning sets of sizes at most $\kappa$. We show that for any upper bound $q$ on the sizes of the conditioning sets, there exist graphs with $O(n q)$ vertices that require at least $n^{\Omega(\kappa)}$ tests to learn. This lower bound holds even when the treewidth and the maximum degree of the graph are at most $\kappa+2$. On the positive side, we prove that every graph of bounded treewidth can be learned by a polynomial number of tests with conditioning sets of sizes at most $2\kappa$.

Recently, there has been growing interest in lifting MAP inference algorithms for Markov logic networks (MLNs). A key advantage of these lifted algorithms is that they have much smaller computational complexity than propositional algorithms when symmetries are present in the MLN and these symmetries can be detected using lifted inference rules. Unfortunately, lifted inference rules are sound but not complete and can often miss many symmetries. This is problematic because when symmetries cannot be exploited, lifted inference algorithms ground the MLN, and search for solutions in the much larger propositional space. In this paper, we present a novel approach, which cleverly introduces new symmetries at the time of grounding.

In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) objective, as opposed to a standard risk-neutral expectation. We refer to such problem as CVaR MDP. Our first contribution is to show that a CVaR objective, besides capturing risk sensitivity, has an alternative interpretation as expected cost under worst-case modeling errors, for a given error budget. This result, which is of independent interest, motivates CVaR MDPs as a unifying framework for risk-sensitive and robust decision making. Our second contribution is to present an approximate value-iteration algorithm for CVaR MDPs and analyze its convergence rate. To our knowledge, this is the first solution algorithm for CVaR MDPs that enjoys error guarantees. Finally, we present results from numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings and show the practicality of our approach.

Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the transition dynamics, performing inference in the iHMM is difficult. In this paper, we present an infinite-state Particle Gibbs (PG) algorithm to resample state trajectories for the iHMM. The proposed algorithm uses an efficient proposal optimized for iHMMs and leverages ancestor sampling to improve the mixing of the standard PG algorithm. Our algorithm demonstrates significant convergence improvements on synthetic and real world data sets.