Statistical analysis of social networks and other relational data is becoming an increasingly important problem as the scope and availability of network data increases. Network data--such as the friendships in a social network--is often dynamic in a sense that relations between entities rise and decay over time. A fundamental problem in the analysis of such dynamic network data is to extract a summary of the common structure and the dynamics of the underlying relations between entities. Accurate models of structure and dynamics of network data have many applications. They allow us to predict missing relationships [20, 21, 23], recommend potential new relations [2], identify clusters and groups of nodes [1, 29], forecast future links [4, 9, 11, 24], and even predict group growth and longevity [15]. Here we present a new approach to modeling network dynamics by considering time-evolving interactions between groups of nodes as well as the arrival and departure dynamics of individual nodes to these groups. We develop a dynamic network model, Dynamic Multi-group Membership Graph Model, that identifies the birth and death of individual groups as well as the dynamics of node joining and leaving groups in order to explain changes in the underlying network linking structure. Our nonparametric model considers an infinite number of latent groups, where each node can belong to multiple groups simultaneously. We capture the evolution of individual node group memberships via a Factorial Hidden Markov model.

Latent variable prediction models, such as multi-layer networks, impose auxiliary latent variables between inputs and outputs to allow automatic inference of implicit features useful for prediction. Unfortunately, such models are difficult to train because inference over latent variables must be performed concurrently with parameter optimization--creating a highly non-convex problem. Instead of proposing another local training method, we develop a convex relaxation of hidden-layer conditional models that admits global training. Our approach extends current convex modeling approaches to handle two nested nonlinearities separated by a non-trivial adaptive latent layer. The resulting methods are able to acquire two-layer models that cannot be represented by any single-layer model over the same features, while improving training quality over local heuristics.

Small-variance asymptotics provide an emerging technique for obtaining scalable combinatorial algorithms from rich probabilistic models. We present a smallvariance asymptotic analysis of the Hidden Markov Model and its infinite-state Bayesian nonparametric extension. Starting with the standard HMM, we first derive a "hard" inference algorithm analogous to k-means that arises when particular variances in the model tend to zero. This analysis is then extended to the Bayesian nonparametric case, yielding a simple, scalable, and flexible algorithm for discrete-state sequence data with a non-fixed number of states. We also derive the corresponding combinatorial objective functions arising from our analysis, which involve a k-means-like term along with penalties based on state transitions and the number of states. A key property of such algorithms is that-- particularly in the nonparametric setting--standard probabilistic inference algorithms lack scalability and are heavily dependent on good initialization. A number of results on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework.

We consider the sensor selection problem on multivariate Gaussian distributions where only a subset of latent variables is of inferential interest. For pairs of vertices connected by a unique path in the graph, we show that there exist decompositions of nonlocal mutual information into local information measures that can be computed efficiently from the output of message passing algorithms. We integrate these decompositions into a computationally efficient greedy selector where the computational expense of quantification can be distributed across nodes in the network. Experimental results demonstrate the comparative efficiency of our algorithms for sensor selection in high-dimensional distributions. We additionally derive an online-computable performance bound based on augmentations of the relevant latent variable set that, when such a valid augmentation exists, is applicable for any distribution with nuisances.

Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) has been drawing great interest in recent years for planning and learning under uncertainty. One of the key challenges is the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. To address this, we present a novel approach for MCTS using Bayesian mixture modeling and inference based Thompson sampling and apply it to the problem of online planning in MDPs. Our algorithm, named Dirichlet-NormalGamma MCTS (DNG-MCTS), models the uncertainty of the accumulated reward for actions in the search tree as a mixture of Normal distributions. We perform inferences on the mixture in Bayesian settings by choosing conjugate priors in the form of combinations of Dirichlet and NormalGamma distributions and select the best action at each decision node using Thompson sampling. Experimental results confirm that our algorithm advances the state-of-the-art UCT approach with better values on several benchmark problems.

We demonstrate that there is significant redundancy in the parameterization of several deep learning models. Given only a few weight values for each feature it is possible to accurately predict the remaining values. Moreover, we show that not only can the parameter values be predicted, but many of them need not be learned at all. We train several different architectures by learning only a small number of weights and predicting the rest. In the best case we are able to predict more than 95% of the weights of a network without any drop in accuracy.

This paper examines the question: What kinds of distributions can be efficiently represented by Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs)? We characterize the RBM's unnormalized log-likelihood function as a type of neural network, and through a series of simulation results relate these networks to ones whose representational properties are better understood. We show the surprising result that RBMs can efficiently capture any distribution whose density depends on the number of 1's in their input. We also provide the first known example of a particular type of distribution that provably cannot be efficiently represented by an RBM, assuming a realistic exponential upper bound on the weights. By formally demonstrating that a relatively simple distribution cannot be represented efficiently by an RBM our results provide a new rigorous justification for the use of potentially more expressive generative models, such as deeper ones.

Most provably-efficient reinforcement learning algorithms introduce optimism about poorly-understood states and actions to encourage exploration. We study an alternative approach for efficient exploration: posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL). This algorithm proceeds in repeated episodes of known duration. At the start of each episode, PSRL updates a prior distribution over Markov decision processes and takes one sample from this posterior. PSRL then follows the policy that is optimal for this sample during the episode. The algorithm is conceptually simple, computationally efficient and allows an agent to encode prior knowledge in a natural way. We establish an Õ(τS AT) bound on expected regret, where T is time, τ is the episode length and S and A are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. This bound is one of the first for an algorithm not based on optimism, and close to the state of the art for any reinforcement learning algorithm. We show through simulation that PSRL significantly outperforms existing algorithms with similar regret bounds.

We study the problem of online learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) where the loss function is allowed to change between episodes. The natural performance measure in this learning problem is the regret defined as the difference between the total loss of the best stationary policy and the total loss suffered by the learner. We assume that the learner is given access to a finite action space A and the state space X has a layered structure with L layers, so that state transitions are only possible between consecutive layers. We describe a variant of the recently proposed Relative Entropy Policy Search algorithm and show that its regret after T episodes is 2 L|X ||A|T log(|X ||A|/L) in the bandit setting and 2L T log(|X ||A|/L) in the full information setting, given that the learner has perfect knowledge of the transition probabilities of the underlying MDP. These guarantees largely improve previously known results under much milder assumptions and cannot be significantly improved under general assumptions.

We consider how to transfer knowledge from previous tasks (MDPs) to a current task in long-lived and bounded agents that must solve a sequence of tasks over a finite lifetime. A novel aspect of our transfer approach is that we reuse reward functions. While this may seem counterintuitive, we build on the insight of recent work on the optimal rewards problem that guiding an agent's behavior with reward functions other than the task-specifying reward function can help overcome computational bounds of the agent. Specifically, we use good guidance reward functions learned on previous tasks in the sequence to incrementally train a reward mapping function that maps task-specifying reward functions into good initial guidance reward functions for subsequent tasks. We demonstrate that our approach can substantially improve the agent's performance relative to other approaches, including an approach that transfers policies.