This paper introduces timeline trees, which are partial models of partially observable environments. Timeline trees are given some specific predictions to make and learn a decision tree over history. The main idea of timeline trees is to use temporally abstract features to identify and split on features of key events, spread arbitrarily far apart in the past (whereas previous decision-tree-based methods have been limited to a finite suffix of history). Experiments demonstrate that timeline trees can learn to make high quality predictions in complex, partially observable environments with high-dimensional observations (e.g. an arcade game).

We describe the tradeoff between the performance in a visual recognition problem and the control authority that the agent can exercise on the sensing process. We focus on the problem of "visual search" of an object in an otherwise known and static scene, propose a measure of control authority, and relate it to the expected risk and its proxy (conditional entropy of the posterior density). We show this analytically, as well as empirically by simulation using the simplest known model that captures the phenomenology of image formation, including scaling and occlusions. We show that a "passive" agent given a training set can provide no guarantees on performance beyond what is afforded by the priors, and that an "omnipotent" agent, capable of infinite control authority, can achieve arbitrarily good performance (asymptotically). In between these limiting cases, the tradeoff can be characterized empirically.

Kernel-based stochastic factorization (KBSF) is an algorithm for solving reinforcement learning tasks with continuous state spaces which builds a Markov decision process (MDP) based on a set of sample transitions. What sets KBSF apart from other kernel-based approaches is the fact that the size of its MDP is independent of the number of transitions, which makes it possible to control the trade-off between the quality of the resulting approximation and the associated computational cost. However, KBSF's memory usage grows linearly with the number of transitions, precluding its application in scenarios where a large amount of data must be processed. In this paper we show that it is possible to construct KBSF's MDP in a fully incremental way, thus freeing the space complexity of this algorithm from its dependence on the number of sample transitions. The incremental version of KBSF is able to process an arbitrary amount of data, which results in a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm that can be used to solve continuous MDPs in both off-line and on-line regimes. We present theoretical results showing that KBSF can approximate the value function that would be computed by conventional kernel-based learning with arbitrary precision. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in the challenging threepole balancing task, in which the ability to process a large number of transitions is crucial for success.

Parametric policy search algorithms are one of the methods of choice for the optimisation of Markov Decision Processes, with Expectation Maximisation and natural gradient ascent being popular methods in this field. In this article we provide a unifying perspective of these two algorithms by showing that their searchdirections in the parameter space are closely related to the search-direction of an approximate Newton method. This analysis leads naturally to the consideration of this approximate Newton method as an alternative optimisation method for Markov Decision Processes. We are able to show that the algorithm has numerous desirable properties, absent in the naive application of Newton's method, that make it a viable alternative to either Expectation Maximisation or natural gradient ascent. Empirical results suggest that the algorithm has excellent convergence and robustness properties, performing strongly in comparison to both Expectation Maximisation and natural gradient ascent.

Undirected graphical models, also known as Markov networks, enjoy popularity in a variety of applications. The popular instances of these models such as Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRFs), Ising models, and multinomial discrete models, however do not capture the characteristics of data in many settings. We introduce a new class of graphical models based on generalized linear models (GLMs) by assuming that node-wise conditional distributions arise from exponential families. Our models allow one to estimate multivariate Markov networks given any univariate exponential distribution, such as Poisson, negative binomial, and exponential, by fitting penalized GLMs to select the neighborhood for each node. A major contribution of this paper is the rigorous statistical analysis showing that with high probability, the neighborhood of our graphical models can be recovered exactly. We also provide examples of non-Gaussian high-throughput genomic networks learned via our GLM graphical models.

In a large visual multi-class detection framework, the timeliness of results can be crucial. Our method for timely multi-class detection aims to give the best possible performance at any single point after a start time; it is terminated at a deadline time. Toward this goal, we formulate a dynamic, closed-loop policy that infers the contents of the image in order to decide which detector to deploy next. In contrast to previous work, our method significantly diverges from the predominant greedy strategies, and is able to learn to take actions with deferred values. We evaluate our method with a novel timeliness measure, computed as the area under an Average Precision vs.

Accurate and detailed models of neurodegenerative disease progression are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination of effective treatments. We introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer's disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer's progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed event ordering, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer's patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

This paper addresses the problem of online planning in Markov decision processes using a randomized simulator, under a budget constraint. We propose a new algorithm which is based on the construction of a forest of planning trees, where each tree corresponds to a random realization of the stochastic environment. The trees are constructed using a "safe" optimistic planning strategy combining the optimistic principle (in order to explore the most promising part of the search space first) with a safety principle (which guarantees a certain amount of uniform exploration). In the decision-making step of the algorithm, the individual trees are aggregated and an immediate action is recommended. We provide a finite-sample analysis and discuss the trade-off between the principles of optimism and safety. We also report numerical results on a benchmark problem. Our algorithm performs as well as state-of-the-art optimistic planning algorithms, and better than a related algorithm which additionally assumes the knowledge of all transition distributions.

Many powerful Monte Carlo techniques for estimating partition functions, such as annealed importance sampling (AIS), are based on sampling from a sequence of intermediate distributions which interpolate between a tractable initial distribution and the intractable target distribution. The near-universal practice is to use geometric averages of the initial and target distributions, but alternative paths can perform substantially better. We present a novel sequence of intermediate distributions for exponential families defined by averaging the moments of the initial and target distributions. We analyze the asymptotic performance of both the geometric and moment averages paths and derive an asymptotically optimal piecewise linear schedule. AIS with moment averaging performs well empirically at estimating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs), which form the building blocks of many deep learning models.

We propose an approximate inference algorithm for continuous time Gaussian Markov process models with both discrete and continuous time likelihoods. We show that the continuous time limit of the expectation propagation algorithm exists and results in a hybrid fixed point iteration consisting of (1) expectation propagation updates for discrete time terms and (2) variational updates for the continuous time term. We introduce postinference corrections methods that improve on the marginals of the approximation. This approach extends the classical Kalman-Bucy smoothing procedure to non-Gaussian observations, enabling continuous-time inference in a variety of models, including spiking neuronal models (state-space models with point process observations) and box likelihood models. Experimental results on real and simulated data demonstrate high distributional accuracy and significant computational savings compared to discrete-time approaches in a neural application.