POMDP planning faces two major computational challenges: large state spaces and long planning horizons. The recently introduced Monte Carlo Value Iteration (MCVI) can tackle POMDPs with very large discrete state spaces or continuous state spaces, but its performance degrades when faced with long planning horizons. This paper presents Macro-MCVI, which extends MCVI by exploiting macro-actions for temporal abstraction. We provide sufficient conditions for Macro-MCVI to inherit the good theoretical properties of MCVI. Macro-MCVI does not require explicit construction of probabilistic models for macro-actions and is thus easy to apply in practice. Experiments show that Macro-MCVI substantially improves the performance of MCVI with suitable macro-actions.

Most existing Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithms assume data instances and/or data bags are independently and identically distributed. But there often exists rich additional dependency/structure information between instances/bags within many applications of MIL. Ignoring this structure information limits the performance of existing MIL algorithms. This paper explores the research problem as multiple instance learning on structured data (MILSD) and formulates a novel framework that considers additional structure information. In particular, an effective and efficient optimization algorithm has been proposed to solve the original non-convex optimization problem by using a combination of Concave-Convex Constraint Programming (CCCP) method and an adapted Cutting Plane method, which deals with two sets of constraints caused by learning on instances within individual bags and learning on structured data. Our method has the nice convergence property, with specified precision on each set of constraints. Experimental results on three different applications, i.e., webpage classification, market targeting, and protein fold identification, clearly demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over state-of-the-art methods.

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for continuous-time multi-stable stochastic systems which can change both their diffusion and drift parameters at discrete times. We propose exact inference and sampling methodologies for two specific cases where the discontinuous dynamics is given by a Poisson process and a two-state Markovian switch. We test the methodology on simulated data, and apply it to two real data sets in finance and systems biology. Our experimental results show that the approach leads to valid inferences and non-trivial insights.

The performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is often sensitive to the scaling and correlations between the random variables of interest. An important source of information about the local correlation and scale is given by the Hessian matrix of the target distribution, but this is often either computationally expensive or infeasible. In this paper we propose MCMC samplers that make use of quasi-Newton approximations, which approximate the Hessian of the target distribution from previous samples and gradients generated by the sampler. A key issue is that MCMC samplers that depend on the history of previous states are in general not valid. We address this problem by using limited memory quasi-Newton methods, which depend only on a fixed window of previous samples. On several real world datasets, we show that the quasi-Newton sampler is more effective than standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo at a fraction of the cost of MCMC methods that require higher-order derivatives.

Factored Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (Dec-POMDPs) form a powerful framework for multiagent planning under uncertainty, but optimal solutions require a rigid history-based policy representation. In this paper we allow inter-agent communication which turns the problem in a centralized Multiagent POMDP (MPOMDP). We map belief distributions over state factors to an agent's local actions by exploiting structure in the joint MPOMDP policy. The key point is that when sparse dependencies between the agents' decisions exist, often the belief over its local state factors is sufficient for an agent to unequivocally identify the optimal action, and communication can be avoided. We formalize these notions by casting the problem into convex optimization form, and present experimental results illustrating the savings in communication that we can obtain.

Focusing on short term trend prediction in a financial context, we consider the problem of selective prediction whereby the predictor can abstain from prediction in order to improve performance. We examine two types of selective mechanisms for HMM predictors. The first is a rejection in the spirit of Chow's well-known ambiguity principle. The second is a specialized mechanism for HMMs that identifies low quality HMM states and abstain from prediction in those states. We call this model selective HMM (sHMM). In both approaches we can trade-off prediction coverage to gain better accuracy in a controlled manner. We compare performance of the ambiguity-based rejection technique with that of the sHMM approach. Our results indicate that both methods are effective, and that the sHMM model is superior.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven to be a powerful, generic planning technique for decision-making in single-agent and adversarial environments. The stochastic nature of the Monte-Carlo simulations introduces errors in the value estimates, both in terms of bias and variance. Whilst reducing bias (typically through the addition of domain knowledge) has been studied in the MCTS literature, comparatively little effort has focused on reducing variance. This is somewhat surprising, since variance reduction techniques are a well-studied area in classical statistics. In this paper, we examine the application of some standard techniques for variance reduction in MCTS, including common random numbers, antithetic variates and control variates. We demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to MCTS and explore their efficacy on three different stochastic, single-agent settings: Pig, Can't Stop and Dominion.

We present a type of Temporal Restricted Boltzmann Machine that defines a probability distribution over an output sequence conditional on an input sequence. It shares the desirable properties of RBMs: efficient exact inference, an exponentially more expressive latent state than HMMs, and the ability to model nonlinear structure and dynamics. We apply our model to a challenging real-world graphics problem: facial expression transfer. Our results demonstrate improved performance over several baselines modeling high-dimensional 2D and 3D data.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy.

Kernel-based reinforcement-learning (KBRL) is a method for learning a decision policy from a set of sample transitions which stands out for its strong theoretical guarantees. However, the size of the approximator grows with the number of transitions, which makes the approach impractical for large problems. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm to improve the scalability of KBRL. We resort to a special decomposition of a transition matrix, called stochastic factorization, to fix the size of the approximator while at the same time incorporating all the information contained in the data. The resulting algorithm, kernel-based stochastic factorization (KBSF), is much faster but still converges to a unique solution. We derive a theoretical upper bound for the distance between the value functions computed by KBRL and KBSF. The effectiveness of our method is illustrated with computational experiments on four reinforcement-learning problems, including a difficult task in which the goal is to learn a neurostimulation policy to suppress the occurrence of seizures in epileptic rat brains. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to compress the information contained in KBRL's model. Also, on the tasks studied, KBSF outperforms two of the most prominent reinforcement-learning algorithms, namely least-squares policy iteration and fitted Q-iteration.