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Simplex Decomposition for Portfolio Allocation Constraints in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Portfolio optimization tasks describe sequential decision problems in which the investor's wealth is distributed across a set of assets. Allocation constraints are used to enforce minimal or maximal investments into particular subsets of assets to control for objectives such as limiting the portfolio's exposure to a certain sector due to environmental concerns. Although methods for constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) can optimize policies while considering allocation constraints, it can be observed that these general methods yield suboptimal results. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to handle allocation constraints based on a decomposition of the constraint action space into a set of unconstrained allocation problems. In particular, we examine this approach for the case of two constraints. For example, an investor may wish to invest at least a certain percentage of the portfolio into green technologies while limiting the investment in the fossil energy sector. We show that the action space of the task is equivalent to the decomposed action space, and introduce a new reinforcement learning (RL) approach CAOSD, which is built on top of the decomposition. The experimental evaluation on real-world Nasdaq-100 data demonstrates that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CRL benchmarks for portfolio optimization.


N-Agent Ad Hoc Teamwork

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current approaches to learning cooperative behaviors in multi-agent settings assume relatively restrictive settings. In standard fully cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, the learning algorithm controls \textit{all} agents in the scenario, while in ad hoc teamwork, the learning algorithm usually assumes control over only a $\textit{single}$ agent in the scenario. However, many cooperative settings in the real world are much less restrictive. For example, in an autonomous driving scenario, a company might train its cars with the same learning algorithm, yet once on the road, these cars must cooperate with cars from another company. Towards generalizing the class of scenarios that cooperative learning methods can address, we introduce $N$-agent ad hoc teamwork, in which a set of autonomous agents must interact and cooperate with dynamically varying numbers and types of teammates at evaluation time. This paper formalizes the problem, and proposes the $\textit{Policy Optimization with Agent Modelling}$ (POAM) algorithm. POAM is a policy gradient, multi-agent reinforcement learning approach to the NAHT problem, that enables adaptation to diverse teammate behaviors by learning representations of teammate behaviors. Empirical evaluation on StarCraft II tasks shows that POAM improves cooperative task returns compared to baseline approaches, and enables out-of-distribution generalization to unseen teammates.


COMBO: Compositional World Models for Embodied Multi-Agent Cooperation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate the problem of embodied multi-agent cooperation, where decentralized agents must cooperate given only partial egocentric views of the world. To effectively plan in this setting, in contrast to learning world dynamics in a single-agent scenario, we must simulate world dynamics conditioned on an arbitrary number of agents' actions given only partial egocentric visual observations of the world. To address this issue of partial observability, we first train generative models to estimate the overall world state given partial egocentric observations. To enable accurate simulation of multiple sets of actions on this world state, we then propose to learn a compositional world model for multi-agent cooperation by factorizing the naturally composable joint actions of multiple agents and compositionally generating the video. By leveraging this compositional world model, in combination with Vision Language Models to infer the actions of other agents, we can use a tree search procedure to integrate these modules and facilitate online cooperative planning. To evaluate the efficacy of our methods, we create two challenging embodied multi-agent long-horizon cooperation tasks using the ThreeDWorld simulator and conduct experiments with 2-4 agents. The results show our compositional world model is effective and the framework enables the embodied agents to cooperate efficiently with different agents across various tasks and an arbitrary number of agents, showing the promising future of our proposed framework. More videos can be found at https://vis-www.cs.umass.edu/combo/.


Efficient Parking Search using Shared Fleet Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Finding an available on-street parking spot is a relevant problem of day-to-day life. In recent years, cities such as Melbourne and San Francisco deployed sensors that provide real-time information about the occupation of parking spots. Finding a free parking spot in such a smart environment can be modeled and solved as a Markov decision process (MDP). The problem has to consider uncertainty as available parking spots might not remain available until arrival due to other vehicles also claiming spots in the meantime. Knowing the parking intention of every vehicle in the environment would eliminate this uncertainty. Unfortunately, it does currently not seem realistic to have such data from all vehicles. In contrast, acquiring data from a subset of vehicles or a vehicle fleet appears feasible and has the potential to reduce uncertainty. In this paper, we examine the question of how useful sharing data within a vehicle fleet might be for the search times of particular drivers. We use fleet data to better estimate the availability of parking spots at arrival. Since optimal solutions for large scenarios are infeasible, we base our method on approximate solutions, which have been shown to perform well in single-agent settings. Our experiments are conducted on a simulation using real-world and synthetic data from the city of Melbourne. The results indicate that fleet data can significantly reduce search times for an available parking spot.


Settling Constant Regrets in Linear Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the constant regret guarantees in reinforcement learning (RL). Our objective is to design an algorithm that incurs only finite regret over infinite episodes with high probability. We introduce an algorithm, Cert-LSVI-UCB, for misspecified linear Markov decision processes (MDPs) where both the transition kernel and the reward function can be approximated by some linear function up to misspecification level $\zeta$. At the core of Cert-LSVI-UCB is an innovative certified estimator, which facilitates a fine-grained concentration analysis for multi-phase value-targeted regression, enabling us to establish an instance-dependent regret bound that is constant w.r.t. the number of episodes. Specifically, we demonstrate that for an MDP characterized by a minimal suboptimality gap $\Delta$, Cert-LSVI-UCB has a cumulative regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^3H^5/\Delta)$ with high probability, provided that the misspecification level $\zeta$ is below $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\Delta / (\sqrt{d}H^2))$. Remarkably, this regret bound remains constant relative to the number of episodes $K$. To the best of our knowledge, Cert-LSVI-UCB is the first algorithm to achieve a constant, instance-dependent, high-probability regret bound in RL with linear function approximation for infinite runs without relying on prior distribution assumptions. This not only highlights the robustness of Cert-LSVI-UCB to model misspecification but also introduces novel algorithmic designs and analytical techniques of independent interest.


Data-driven subgrouping of patient trajectories with chronic diseases: Evidence from low back pain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clinical data informs the personalization of health care with a potential for more effective disease management. In practice, this is achieved by subgrouping, whereby clusters with similar patient characteristics are identified and then receive customized treatment plans with the goal of targeting subgroup-specific disease dynamics. In this paper, we propose a novel mixture hidden Markov model for subgrouping patient trajectories from chronic diseases. Our model is probabilistic and carefully designed to capture different trajectory phases of chronic diseases (i.e., "severe", "moderate", and "mild") through tailored latent states. We demonstrate our subgrouping framework based on a longitudinal study across 847 patients with non-specific low back pain. Here, our subgrouping framework identifies 8 subgroups. Further, we show that our subgrouping framework outperforms common baselines in terms of cluster validity indices. Finally, we discuss the applicability of the model to other chronic and long-lasting diseases.


Reward Learning from Suboptimal Demonstrations with Applications in Surgical Electrocautery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automating robotic surgery via learning from demonstration (LfD) techniques is extremely challenging. This is because surgical tasks often involve sequential decision-making processes with complex interactions of physical objects and have low tolerance for mistakes. Prior works assume that all demonstrations are fully observable and optimal, which might not be practical in the real world. This paper introduces a sample-efficient method that learns a robust reward function from a limited amount of ranked suboptimal demonstrations consisting of partial-view point cloud observations. The method then learns a policy by optimizing the learned reward function using reinforcement learning (RL). We show that using a learned reward function to obtain a policy is more robust than pure imitation learning. We apply our approach on a physical surgical electrocautery task and demonstrate that our method can perform well even when the provided demonstrations are suboptimal and the observations are high-dimensional point clouds. Code and videos available here: https://sites.google.com/view/lfdinelectrocautery


Modeling the Lane-Change Reactions to Merging Vehicles for Highway On-Ramp Simulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Enhancing simulation environments to replicate real-world driver behavior is essential for developing Autonomous Vehicle technology. While some previous works have studied the yielding reaction of lag vehicles in response to a merging car at highway on-ramps, the possible lane-change reaction of the lag car has not been widely studied. In this work we aim to improve the simulation of the highway merge scenario by including the lane-change reaction in addition to yielding behavior of main-lane lag vehicles, and we evaluate two different models for their ability to capture this reactive lane-change behavior. To tune the payoff functions of these models, a novel naturalistic dataset was collected on U.S. highways that provided several hours of merge-specific data to learn the lane change behavior of U.S. drivers. To make sure that we are collecting a representative set of different U.S. highway geometries in our data, we surveyed 50,000 U.S. highway on-ramps and then selected eight representative sites. The data were collected using roadside-mounted lidar sensors to capture various merge driver interactions. The models were demonstrated to be configurable for both keep-straight and lane-change behavior. The models were finally integrated into a high-fidelity simulation environment and confirmed to have adequate computation time efficiency for use in large-scale simulations to support autonomous vehicle development.


Empowering Embodied Visual Tracking with Visual Foundation Models and Offline RL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Embodied visual tracking is to follow a target object in dynamic 3D environments using an agent's egocentric vision. This is a vital and challenging skill for embodied agents. However, existing methods suffer from inefficient training and poor generalization. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that combines visual foundation models (VFM) and offline reinforcement learning (offline RL) to empower embodied visual tracking. We use a pre-trained VFM, such as ``Tracking Anything", to extract semantic segmentation masks with text prompts. We then train a recurrent policy network with offline RL, e.g., Conservative Q-Learning, to learn from the collected demonstrations without online agent-environment interactions. To further improve the robustness and generalization of the policy network, we also introduce a mask re-targeting mechanism and a multi-level data collection strategy. In this way, we can train a robust tracker within an hour on a consumer-level GPU, e.g., Nvidia RTX 3090. Such efficiency is unprecedented for RL-based visual tracking methods. We evaluate our tracker on several high-fidelity environments with challenging situations, such as distraction and occlusion. The results show that our agent outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of sample efficiency, robustness to distractors, and generalization to unseen scenarios and targets. We also demonstrate the transferability of the learned tracker from the virtual world to real-world scenarios.


All-in-one simulation-based inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method -- the Simformer -- which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.