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 Markov Models


von Mises Quasi-Processes for Bayesian Circular Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The need for regression models to predict circular values arises in many scientific fields. In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions related to Gaussian processes targeting two Euclidean dimensions conditioned on the unit circle. The resulting probability model has connections with continuous spin models in statistical physics. Moreover, its density is very simple and has maximum-entropy, unlike previous Gaussian process-based approaches, which use wrapping or radial marginalization. For posterior inference, we introduce a new Stratonovich-like augmentation that lends itself to fast Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We argue that transductive learning in these models favors a Bayesian approach to the parameters. We present experiments applying this model to the prediction of (i) wind directions and (ii) the percentage of the running gait cycle as a function of joint angles.


Visually Robust Adversarial Imitation Learning from Videos with Contrastive Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose C-LAIfO, a computationally efficient algorithm designed for imitation learning from videos, even in the presence of visual mismatch between agent and expert domains. We analyze the problem of imitation from expert videos with visual discrepancies, and introduce a solution for robust latent space estimation using contrastive learning and data augmentation. Provided a visually robust latent space, our algorithm performs imitation entirely within this space using off-policy adversarial imitation learning. We conduct a thorough ablation study to justify our design choices and test C-LAIfO on high-dimensional continuous robotic tasks. Additionally, we demonstrate how C-LAIfO can be combined with other reward signals to facilitate learning on a set of challenging hand manipulation tasks with sparse rewards. Our experiments show improved performance compared to baseline methods, highlighting the effectiveness and versatility of C-LAIfO. To ensure reproducibility, we provide open access to our code.


Memory Sequence Length of Data Sampling Impacts the Adaptation of Meta-Reinforcement Learning Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fast adaptation to new tasks is extremely important for embodied agents in the real world. Meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) has emerged as an effective method to enable fast adaptation in unknown environments. Compared to on-policy meta-RL algorithms, off-policy algorithms rely heavily on efficient data sampling strategies to extract and represent the historical trajectories. However, little is known about how different data sampling methods impact the ability of meta-RL agents to represent unknown environments. Here, we investigate the impact of data sampling strategies on the exploration and adaptability of meta-RL agents. Specifically, we conducted experiments with two types of off-policy meta-RL algorithms based on Thompson sampling and Bayes-optimality theories in continuous control tasks within the MuJoCo environment and sparse reward navigation tasks. Our analysis revealed the long-memory and short-memory sequence sampling strategies affect the representation and adaptive capabilities of meta-RL agents. We found that the algorithm based on Bayes-optimality theory exhibited more robust and better adaptability than the algorithm based on Thompson sampling, highlighting the importance of appropriate data sampling strategies for the agent's representation of an unknown environment, especially in the case of sparse rewards.


The Limits of Pure Exploration in POMDPs: When the Observation Entropy is Enough

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The problem of pure exploration in Markov decision processes has been cast as maximizing the entropy over the state distribution induced by the agent's policy, an objective that has been extensively studied. However, little attention has been dedicated to state entropy maximization under partial observability, despite the latter being ubiquitous in applications, e.g., finance and robotics, in which the agent only receives noisy observations of the true state governing the system's dynamics. How can we address state entropy maximization in those domains? In this paper, we study the simple approach of maximizing the entropy over observations in place of true latent states. First, we provide lower and upper bounds to the approximation of the true state entropy that only depends on some properties of the observation function. Then, we show how knowledge of the latter can be exploited to compute a principled regularization of the observation entropy to improve performance. With this work, we provide both a flexible approach to bring advances in state entropy maximization to the POMDP setting and a theoretical characterization of its intrinsic limits.


Model-free Legibility: Enhancing Human-Robot Interactions through Implicit Communication and Influence Modulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It is widely recognised that communication is key to successful interaction. Humans communicate with each other through both explicit (direct, deliberate communication over an established channel with clear intent to reach a defined recipient [1]) and implicit channels. Implicit communication is a subtle, indirect mode of conveying information, often relying on context, nonverbal cues, and shared understanding between communicators to convey meaning without explicit verbalization [2]. Implicit communication is particularly crucial for human-robot interaction as it enhances a robot's ability to proactively understand and respond to human needs, emotions, and intentions, thereby facilitating more natural and effective communication and collaboration between humans and robots. Unfortunately, most current human-robot interaction (HRI) studies focusing on implicit communication explicitly model the intention of human participants [3] [4], or rely on existing intention knowledge [5].


Adaptive Mean Estimation in the Hidden Markov sub-Gaussian Mixture Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the problem of center estimation in the high dimensional binary sub-Gaussian Mixture Model with Hidden Markov structure on the labels. We first study the limitations of existing results in the high dimensional setting and then propose a minimax optimal procedure for the problem of center estimation. Among other findings, we show that our procedure reaches the optimal rate that is of order $\sqrt{\delta d/n} + d/n$ instead of $\sqrt{d/n} + d/n$ where $\delta \in(0,1)$ is a dependence parameter between labels. Along the way, we also develop an adaptive variant of our procedure that is globally minimax optimal. In order to do so, we rely on a more refined and localized analysis of the estimation risk. Overall, leveraging the hidden Markovian dependence between the labels, we show that it is possible to get a strict improvement of the rates adaptively at almost no cost.


More Efficient Randomized Exploration for Reinforcement Learning via Approximate Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Thompson sampling (TS) is one of the most popular exploration techniques in reinforcement learning (RL). However, most TS algorithms with theoretical guarantees are difficult to implement and not generalizable to Deep RL. While the emerging approximate sampling-based exploration schemes are promising, most existing algorithms are specific to linear Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with suboptimal regret bounds, or only use the most basic samplers such as Langevin Monte Carlo. In this work, we propose an algorithmic framework that incorporates different approximate sampling methods with the recently proposed Feel-Good Thompson Sampling (FGTS) approach (Zhang, 2022; Dann et al., 2021), which was previously known to be computationally intractable in general. When applied to linear MDPs, our regret analysis yields the best known dependency of regret on dimensionality, surpassing existing randomized algorithms. Additionally, we provide explicit sampling complexity for each employed sampler. Empirically, we show that in tasks where deep exploration is necessary, our proposed algorithms that combine FGTS and approximate sampling perform significantly better compared to other strong baselines. On several challenging games from the Atari 57 suite, our algorithms achieve performance that is either better than or on par with other strong baselines from the deep RL literature.


Generalisation to unseen topologies: Towards control of biological neural network activity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This would allow for applications in the investigation of activity propagation, and for diagnosis and treatment of pathological behaviour. Due to the partially observable characteristics of activity propagation, through networks in which edges can not be observed, and the dynamic nature of neuronal systems, there is a need for adaptive, generalisable control. In this paper, we introduce an environment that procedurally generates neuronal networks with different topologies to investigate this generalisation problem. Additionally, an existing transformer-based architecture is adjusted to evaluate the generalisation performance of a deep RL agent in the presented partially observable environment. The agent demonstrates the capability to generalise control from a limited number of training networks to unseen test networks.


CLST: Cold-Start Mitigation in Knowledge Tracing by Aligning a Generative Language Model as a Students' Knowledge Tracer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge tracing (KT), wherein students' problem-solving histories are used to estimate their current levels of knowledge, has attracted significant interest from researchers. However, most existing KT models were developed with an ID-based paradigm, which exhibits limitations in cold-start performance. These limitations can be mitigated by leveraging the vast quantities of external knowledge possessed by generative large language models (LLMs). In this study, we propose cold-start mitigation in knowledge tracing by aligning a generative language model as a students' knowledge tracer (CLST) as a framework that utilizes a generative LLM as a knowledge tracer. Upon collecting data from math, social studies, and science subjects, we framed the KT task as a natural language processing task, wherein problem-solving data are expressed in natural language, and fine-tuned the generative LLM using the formatted KT dataset. Subsequently, we evaluated the performance of the CLST in situations of data scarcity using various baseline models for comparison. The results indicate that the CLST significantly enhanced performance with a dataset of fewer than 100 students in terms of prediction, reliability, and cross-domain generalization. Keywords: intelligent tutoring system knowledge tracing (KT) personalized learning.


$\tau$-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing benchmarks do not test language agents on their interaction with human users or ability to follow domain-specific rules, both of which are vital for deploying them in real world applications. We propose $\tau$-bench, a benchmark emulating dynamic conversations between a user (simulated by language models) and a language agent provided with domain-specific API tools and policy guidelines. We employ an efficient and faithful evaluation process that compares the database state at the end of a conversation with the annotated goal state. We also propose a new metric (pass^k) to evaluate the reliability of agent behavior over multiple trials. Our experiments show that even state-of-the-art function calling agents (like gpt-4o) succeed on <50% of the tasks, and are quite inconsistent (pass^8 <25% in retail). Our findings point to the need for methods that can improve the ability of agents to act consistently and follow rules reliably.