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Recent Trends in Modelling the Continuous Time Series using Deep Learning: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous-time series is essential for different modern application areas, e.g. healthcare, automobile, energy, finance, Internet of things (IoT) and other related areas. Different application needs to process as well as analyse a massive amount of data in time series structure in order to determine the data-driven result, for example, financial trend prediction, potential probability of the occurrence of a particular event occurrence identification, patient health record processing and so many more. However, modeling real-time data using a continuous-time series is challenging since the dynamical systems behind the data could be a differential equation. Several research works have tried to solve the challenges of modelling the continuous-time series using different neural network models and approaches for data processing and learning. The existing deep learning models are not free from challenges and limitations due to diversity among different attributes, behaviour, duration of steps, energy, and data sampling rate. This paper has described the general problem domain of time series and reviewed the challenges of modelling the continuous time series. We have presented a comparative analysis of recent developments in deep learning models and their contribution to solving different difficulties of modelling the continuous time series. We have also identified the limitations of the existing neural network model and open issues. The main goal of this review is to understand the recent trend of neural network models used in a different real-world application with continuous-time data.


Windows Agent Arena: Evaluating Multi-Modal OS Agents at Scale

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable potential to act as computer agents, enhancing human productivity and software accessibility in multi-modal tasks that require planning and reasoning. However, measuring agent performance in realistic environments remains a challenge since: (i) most benchmarks are limited to specific modalities or domains (e.g. text-only, web navigation, Q&A, coding) and (ii) full benchmark evaluations are slow (on order of magnitude of days) given the multi-step sequential nature of tasks. To address these challenges, we introduce the Windows Agent Arena: a reproducible, general environment focusing exclusively on the Windows operating system (OS) where agents can operate freely within a real Windows OS and use the same wide range of applications, tools, and web browsers available to human users when solving tasks. We adapt the OSWorld framework (Xie et al., 2024) to create 150+ diverse Windows tasks across representative domains that require agent abilities in planning, screen understanding, and tool usage. Our benchmark is scalable and can be seamlessly parallelized in Azure for a full benchmark evaluation in as little as 20 minutes. To demonstrate Windows Agent Arena's capabilities, we also introduce a new multi-modal agent, Navi. Our agent achieves a success rate of 19.5% in the Windows domain, compared to 74.5% performance of an unassisted human. Navi also demonstrates strong performance on another popular web-based benchmark, Mind2Web. We offer extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of Navi's performance, and provide insights into the opportunities for future research in agent development and data generation using Windows Agent Arena. Webpage: https://microsoft.github.io/WindowsAgentArena Code: https://github.com/microsoft/WindowsAgentArena


HOLA-Drone: Hypergraphic Open-ended Learning for Zero-Shot Multi-Drone Cooperative Pursuit

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Zero-shot coordination (ZSC) is a significant challenge in multi-agent collaboration, aiming to develop agents that can coordinate with unseen partners they have not encountered before. Recent cutting-edge ZSC methods have primarily focused on two-player video games such as OverCooked!2 and Hanabi. In this paper, we extend the scope of ZSC research to the multi-drone cooperative pursuit scenario, exploring how to construct a drone agent capable of coordinating with multiple unseen partners to capture multiple evaders. We propose a novel Hypergraphic Open-ended Learning Algorithm (HOLA-Drone) that continuously adapts the learning objective based on our hypergraphic-form game modeling, aiming to improve cooperative abilities with multiple unknown drone teammates. To empirically verify the effectiveness of HOLA-Drone, we build two different unseen drone teammate pools to evaluate their performance in coordination with various unseen partners. The experimental results demonstrate that HOLA-Drone outperforms the baseline methods in coordination with unseen drone teammates. Furthermore, real-world experiments validate the feasibility of HOLA-Drone in physical systems. Videos can be found on the project homepage~\url{https://sites.google.com/view/hola-drone}.


Affective Computing Has Changed: The Foundation Model Disruption

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The dawn of Foundation Models has on the one hand revolutionised a wide range of research problems, and, on the other hand, democratised the access and use of AI-based tools by the general public. We even observe an incursion of these models into disciplines related to human psychology, such as the Affective Computing domain, suggesting their affective, emerging capabilities. In this work, we aim to raise awareness of the power of Foundation Models in the field of Affective Computing by synthetically generating and analysing multimodal affective data, focusing on vision, linguistics, and speech (acoustics). We also discuss some fundamental problems, such as ethical issues and regulatory aspects, related to the use of Foundation Models in this research area.


Federated One-Shot Ensemble Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Cluster analysis across multiple institutions poses significant challenges due to data-sharing restrictions. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Federated One-shot Ensemble Clustering (FONT) algorithm, a novel solution tailored for multi-site analyses under such constraints. FONT requires only a single round of communication between sites and ensures privacy by exchanging only fitted model parameters and class labels. The algorithm combines locally fitted clustering models into a data-adaptive ensemble, making it broadly applicable to various clustering techniques and robust to differences in cluster proportions across sites. Our theoretical analysis validates the effectiveness of the data-adaptive weights learned by FONT, and simulation studies demonstrate its superior performance compared to existing benchmark methods. We applied FONT to identify subgroups of patients with rheumatoid arthritis across two health systems, revealing improved consistency of patient clusters across sites, while locally fitted clusters proved less transferable. FONT is particularly well-suited for real-world applications with stringent communication and privacy constraints, offering a scalable and practical solution for multi-site clustering.


Games for AI Control: Models of Safety Evaluations of AI Deployment Protocols

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To evaluate the safety and usefulness of deployment protocols for untrusted AIs, AI Control uses a red-teaming exercise played between a protocol designer and an adversary. This paper introduces AI-Control Games, a formal decision-making model of the red-teaming exercise as a multi-objective, partially observable, stochastic game. We also introduce methods for finding optimal protocols in AI-Control Games, by reducing them to a set of zero-sum partially observable stochastic games. We apply our formalism to model, evaluate and synthesise protocols for deploying untrusted language models as programming assistants, focusing on Trusted Monitoring protocols, which use weaker language models and limited human assistance. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our formalism by showcasing improvements over empirical studies in existing settings, evaluating protocols in new settings, and analysing how modelling assumptions affect the safety and usefulness of protocols.


An Intent Modeling and Inference Framework for Autonomous and Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An intent modelling and inference framework is presented to assist the defense planning for protecting a geo-fence against unauthorized flights. First, a novel mathematical definition for the intent of an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) is presented. The concepts of critical waypoints and critical waypoint patterns are introduced and associated with a motion process to fully characterize an intent. This modelling framework consists of representations of a UAS mission planner, used to plan the aircraft's motion sequence, as well as a defense planner, defined to protect the geo-fence. It is applicable to autonomous, semi-autonomous, and piloted systems in 2D and 3D environments with obstacles. The framework is illustrated by defining a library of intents for a security application. Detection and tracking of the target are presumed for formulating the intent inference problem. Multiple formulations of the decision maker's objective are discussed as part of a deep-learning-based methodology. Further, a multi-modal dynamic model for characterizing the UAS flight is discussed. This is later utilized to extract features using the interacting multiple model (IMM) filter for training the intent classifier. Finally, as part of the simulation study, an attention-based bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network for intent inference is presented. The simulation experiments illustrate various aspects of the framework, including trajectory generation, radar measurement simulation, etc., in 2D and 3D environments.


Reinforcement Learning Discovers Efficient Decentralized Graph Path Search Strategies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph path search is a classic computer science problem that has been recently approached with Reinforcement Learning (RL) due to its potential to outperform prior methods. Existing RL techniques typically assume a global view of the network, which is not suitable for large-scale, dynamic, and privacy-sensitive settings. An area of particular interest is search in social networks due to its numerous applications. Inspired by seminal work in experimental sociology, which showed that decentralized yet efficient search is possible in social networks, we frame the problem as a collaborative task between multiple agents equipped with a limited local view of the network. We propose a multi-agent approach for graph path search that successfully leverages both homophily and structural heterogeneity. Our experiments, carried out over synthetic and real-world social networks, demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms learned and heuristic baselines. Furthermore, our results show that meaningful embeddings for graph navigation can be constructed using reward-driven learning.


Multi-Robot Coordination Induced in Hazardous Environments through an Adversarial Graph-Traversal Game

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a game theoretic formulation of a graph traversal problem, with applications to robots moving through hazardous environments in the presence of an adversary, as in military and security applications. The blue team of robots moves in an environment modeled by a time-varying graph, attempting to reach some goal with minimum cost, while the red team controls how the graph changes to maximize the cost. The problem is formulated as a stochastic game, so that Nash equilibrium strategies can be computed numerically. Bounds are provided for the game value, with a guarantee that it solves the original problem. Numerical simulations demonstrate the results and the effectiveness of this method, particularly showing the benefit of mixing actions for both players, as well as beneficial coordinated behavior, where blue robots split up and/or synchronize to traverse risky edges.


Ensemble Methods for Sequence Classification with Hidden Markov Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a lightweight approach to sequence classification using Ensemble Methods for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). HMMs offer significant advantages in scenarios with imbalanced or smaller datasets due to their simplicity, interpretability, and efficiency. These models are particularly effective in domains such as finance and biology, where traditional methods struggle with high feature dimensionality and varied sequence lengths. Our ensemble-based scoring method enables the comparison of sequences of any length and improves performance on imbalanced datasets. This study focuses on the binary classification problem, particularly in scenarios with data imbalance, where the negative class is the majority (e.g., normal data) and the positive class is the minority (e.g., anomalous data), often with extreme distribution skews. We propose a novel training approach for HMM Ensembles that generalizes to multi-class problems and supports classification and anomaly detection. Our method fits class-specific groups of diverse models using random data subsets, and compares likelihoods across classes to produce composite scores, achieving high average precisions and AUCs. In addition, we compare our approach with neural network-based methods such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), highlighting the efficiency and robustness of HMMs in data-scarce environments. Motivated by real-world use cases, our method demonstrates robust performance across various benchmarks, offering a flexible framework for diverse applications.