Markov Models
Jet Expansions of Residual Computation
Chen, Yihong, Xu, Xiangxiang, Lu, Yao, Stenetorp, Pontus, Franceschi, Luca
We introduce a framework for expanding residual computational graphs using jets, operators that generalize truncated Taylor series. Our method provides a systematic approach to disentangle contributions of different computational paths to model predictions. In contrast to existing techniques such as distillation, probing, or early decoding, our expansions rely solely on the model itself and requires no data, training, or sampling from the model. We demonstrate how our framework grounds and subsumes logit lens, reveals a (super-)exponential path structure in the recursive residual depth and opens up several applications. These include sketching a transformer large language model with n-gram statistics extracted from its computations, and indexing the models' levels of toxicity knowledge. Our approach enables data-free analysis of residual computation for model interpretability, development, and evaluation. The project website can be found here. Machine learning models, particularly large-scale foundation models, have become increasingly prevalent and impactful across a wide range of domains (Wei et al., 2021; Bommasani et al., 2023; Touvron et al., 2023b). While delivering strong results, their black-box nature has led to the development of techniques to assess their behavior and gain insights into their internal mechanisms. In this space, mechanistic interpretability (MI) (see e.g. Bereska & Gavves, 2024; Ferrando et al., 2024, for recent surverys) has emerged as an alternative to more classic local attribution methods such as SHAP (Lundberg, 2017) or integrated gradient (Sundararajan et al., 2017).
Heuristics for Partially Observable Stochastic Contingent Planning
Acting to complete tasks in stochastic partially observable domains is an important problem in artificial intelligence, and is often formulated as a goal-based POMDP. Goal-based POMDPs can be solved using the RTDP-BEL algorithm, that operates by running forward trajectories from the initial belief to the goal. These trajectories can be guided by a heuristic, and more accurate heuristics can result in significantly faster convergence. In this paper, we develop a heuristic function that leverages the structured representation of domain models. We compute, in a relaxed space, a plan to achieve the goal, while taking into account the value of information, as well as the stochastic effects. We provide experiments showing that while our heuristic is slower to compute, it requires an order of magnitude less trajectories before convergence. Overall, it thus speeds up RTDP-BEL, particularly in problems where significant information gathering is needed.
Effort Allocation for Deadline-Aware Task and Motion Planning: A Metareasoning Approach
Sung, Yoonchang, Shperberg, Shahaf S., Wang, Qi, Stone, Peter
Their approach involved modeling the problem using a set of processes, each dedicated to searching for a plan, akin to representing search nodes on an open list. Each process is characterized by a probabilistic performance profile, modeled by a random variable indicating the probability of successful termination given processing time, as well as a random variable modeling the deadline corresponding to each partial plan, which is only revealed after planning is concluded. The meta-level problem lies in finding an optimal schedule of processing time across all processes that maximizes the probability that any process delivers a plan before its deadline. A simplified version of this problem, known as "simplified allocating planning effort when actions expire," assumes discrete time intervals and has been proven to be NP-hard. However, under the condition of known deadlines, the problem becomes solvable in pseudo-polynomial time through dynamic programming. Later, this line of work was extended to consider interleaved planning and execution, where partial plans can be executed during the search [62, 63]. While this body of work bears relevance to our research, it primarily concentrates on deriving symbolic plans. In contrast, our focus lies in elaborating existing symbolic plans through motion-level reasoning to make them executable for a robot, optimizing the likelihood of meeting a pre-specified deadline.
Cooperative and Asynchronous Transformer-based Mission Planning for Heterogeneous Teams of Mobile Robots
Farjadnasab, Milad, Sirouspour, Shahin
Coordinating heterogeneous teams of mobile robots for tasks such as search and rescue is highly challenging. This is due to the complexities of perception, decision making and planning in such environments, with agents' non-synchronous operation, constrained communication, and limited computational resources. This paper presents the Cooperative and Asynchronous Transformer-based Mission Planning (CATMiP) framework, which leverages multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to effectively coordinate agents with heterogeneous sensing, motion, and actuation capabilities. The framework introduces a Class-based Macro-Action Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (CMD-POMDP) model to handle asynchronous decision-making among different agent classes via macro-actions. It also extends the Multi-Agent Transformer (MAT) architecture to facilitate distributed, ad hoc communication among the agents. CATMiP easily adapts to mission complexities and communication constraints, and scales to varying environment sizes and team compositions. Simulations demonstrate its scalability and ability to achieve cooperative mission objectives with two classes of explorer and rescuer agents, even under severe communication constraints. The code is available at https://github.com/mylad13/CATMiP.
Reviews: Data-Efficient Reinforcement Learning in Continuous State-Action Gaussian-POMDPs
This paper describes an extension to the PILCO algorithm (Probabilistic Inference and Learning for COntrol, a data-efficient reinforcement algorithm). The proposed algorithm applies a measurement filtering algorithm during the actual experiment and explicitly takes this measurement filtering algorithm into account during the policy learning step, which uses data from the experiment. This is an important practical extension addressing the fact that measurements are often very noisy. My intuitive explanation for this approach is that the proposed approach makes the overall feedback system more "repeatable" (noise is mostly filtered out) and therefore learning is faster (given that the filtering is effective, see last sentence of the conclusion). The paper presents detailed mathematical derivations and strong simulation results that highlight the properties of the proposed algorithm.
Reviews: Learning Unknown Markov Decision Processes: A Thompson Sampling Approach
The paper proposes TSDE, a posterior sampling algorithm for RL in the average reward infinite horizon setting. This algorithm uses dynamic episodes but unlike Lazy-PSRL avoids technical issues by not only terminating an episode when an observation count doubled but also terminating episodes when they become too long. This ensures that the episode length cannot grow faster than linear and ultimately a Bayesian regret bound of O(HS(AT) .5) is shown. Posterior sampling methods typically outperform UCB-type algorithms and therefore a posterior sampling algorithm for non-episodic RL with rigorous regret bounds is desirable. This paper proposes such an algorithm, which is of high interest.
Reviews: Entropy Rate Estimation for Markov Chains with Large State Space
The paper proposes an entropy estimate for Markov chains by reduction to optimal entropy estimation for i.i.d samples. Sample complexity analysis is provided for different mixing scenarios with a minimax rate established for a particular rate. The estimator is used to assess the capacity of language models. This is a very clear and well-written paper. I appreciate the efforts done by the authors to summarize the results.
Reviews: Modeling Dynamic Missingness of Implicit Feedback for Recommendation
This paper presents H4MF model (HMM MF for dynamic Missingness) for implicit feedback data. With implicit data, we only observe positive feedback and the missing entries (zeros) in the data can indicate either negative feedback or users are not exposed of the items. H4MF is based on the previous work on modeling user latent exposure (ExpoMF, Liang et al., Modeling user exposure in recommendation, 2016) -- the basic idea is that for each user-item pair, there is a latent binary variable to represent exposure; if it's 1, it means this user is exposed to the item thus 0 feedback mean true negative, while if it's 0, it means this user have not yet been exposed to this item yet. The difference in H4MF is that H4MF uses a hidden Markov model to capture the temporal dynamics in the user exposure (user intent in this paper). The basic idea is that whether or not a user is exposed to something can be dependent on some other items he/she has been exposed before.
Reviews: Robust and Efficient Transfer Learning with Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Processes
Summary: This paper presents a new transfer learning approach using Bayesian Neural Network in MDPs. They are building on the existing framework of Hidden Parameter MDPs, and replace the Gaussian process with BNNs, thereby also modeling the joint uncertainty in the latent weights and the state space. Overall, this proposed approach is sound, well developed and seems to help scale the inference. The authors have also shown that it works well by applying it to multiple domains. The paper is extremely well written.
Reviews: Policy-Conditioned Uncertainty Sets for Robust Markov Decision Processes
The authors consider distributionally robust finite MDPs over a finite horizon. The transition probabilities conditionally to a state-action pair should remain at L1-bounded distance from a base measure, which is feasible as being generated using a given reference policy. This is a nice idea. A few comments are mentioned next. Related to that question, why the requirement of staying "close" to this policy would be beneficial.