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 Markov Models


KnowGraph: Knowledge-Enabled Anomaly Detection via Logical Reasoning on Graph Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph-based anomaly detection is pivotal in diverse security applications, such as fraud detection in transaction networks and intrusion detection for network traffic. Standard approaches, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), often struggle to generalize across shifting data distributions. Meanwhile, real-world domain knowledge is more stable and a common existing component of real-world detection strategies. To explicitly integrate such knowledge into data-driven models such as GCNs, we propose KnowGraph, which integrates domain knowledge with data-driven learning for enhanced graph-based anomaly detection. KnowGraph comprises two principal components: (1) a statistical learning component that utilizes a main model for the overarching detection task, augmented by multiple specialized knowledge models that predict domain-specific semantic entities; (2) a reasoning component that employs probabilistic graphical models to execute logical inferences based on model outputs, encoding domain knowledge through weighted first-order logic formulas. Extensive experiments on these large-scale real-world datasets show that KnowGraph consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both transductive and inductive settings, achieving substantial gains in average precision when generalizing to completely unseen test graphs. Further ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed reasoning component in improving detection performance, especially under extreme class imbalance. These results highlight the potential of integrating domain knowledge into data-driven models for high-stakes, graph-based security applications.


A Gentle Introduction and Tutorial on Deep Generative Models in Transportation Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) have rapidly advanced in recent years, becoming essential tools in various fields due to their ability to learn complex data distributions and generate synthetic data. Their importance in transportation research is increasingly recognized, particularly for applications like traffic data generation, prediction, and feature extraction. This paper offers a comprehensive introduction and tutorial on DGMs, with a focus on their applications in transportation. It begins with an overview of generative models, followed by detailed explanations of fundamental models, a systematic review of the literature, and practical tutorial code to aid implementation. The paper also discusses current challenges and opportunities, highlighting how these models can be effectively utilized and further developed in transportation research. This paper serves as a valuable reference, guiding researchers and practitioners from foundational knowledge to advanced applications of DGMs in transportation research.


A phase transition in sampling from Restricted Boltzmann Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are a class of undirected graphical models that play a key role in deep learning and unsupervised learning. In this study, we prove a phase transition phenomenon in the mixing time of the Gibbs sampler for a one-parameter Restricted Boltzmann Machine. Specifically, the mixing time varies logarithmically, polynomially, and exponentially with the number of vertices depending on whether the parameter $c$ is above, equal to, or below a critical value $c_\star\approx-5.87$. A key insight from our analysis is the link between the Gibbs sampler and a dynamical system, which we utilize to quantify the former based on the behavior of the latter. To study the critical case $c= c_\star$, we develop a new isoperimetric inequality for the sampler's stationary distribution by showing that the distribution is nearly log-concave.


Offline Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning via Inverse Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical policies enable strong performance in many sequential decision-making problems, such as those with high-dimensional action spaces, those requiring long-horizon planning, and settings with sparse rewards. However, learning hierarchical policies from static offline datasets presents a significant challenge. Crucially, actions taken by higher-level policies may not be directly observable within hierarchical controllers, and the offline dataset might have been generated using a different policy structure, hindering the use of standard offline learning algorithms. In this work, we propose OHIO: a framework for offline reinforcement learning (RL) of hierarchical policies. Our framework leverages knowledge of the policy structure to solve the inverse problem, recovering the unobservable high-level actions that likely generated the observed data under our hierarchical policy. This approach constructs a dataset suitable for off-the-shelf offline training. We demonstrate our framework on robotic and network optimization problems and show that it substantially outperforms end-to-end RL methods and improves robustness. We investigate a variety of instantiations of our framework, both in direct deployment of policies trained offline and when online fine-tuning is performed.


The Plug-in Approach for Average-Reward and Discounted MDPs: Optimal Sample Complexity Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the sample complexity of the plug-in approach for learning $\varepsilon$-optimal policies in average-reward Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a generative model. The plug-in approach constructs a model estimate then computes an average-reward optimal policy in the estimated model. Despite representing arguably the simplest algorithm for this problem, the plug-in approach has never been theoretically analyzed. Unlike the more well-studied discounted MDP reduction method, the plug-in approach requires no prior problem information or parameter tuning. Our results fill this gap and address the limitations of prior approaches, as we show that the plug-in approach is optimal in several well-studied settings without using prior knowledge. Specifically it achieves the optimal diameter- and mixing-based sample complexities of $\widetilde{O}\left(SA \frac{D}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ and $\widetilde{O}\left(SA \frac{\tau_{\mathrm{unif}}}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$, respectively, without knowledge of the diameter $D$ or uniform mixing time $\tau_{\mathrm{unif}}$. We also obtain span-based bounds for the plug-in approach, and complement them with algorithm-specific lower bounds suggesting that they are unimprovable. Our results require novel techniques for analyzing long-horizon problems which may be broadly useful and which also improve results for the discounted plug-in approach, removing effective-horizon-related sample size restrictions and obtaining the first optimal complexity bounds for the full range of sample sizes without reward perturbation.


Equilibrium and non-Equilibrium regimes in the learning of Restricted Boltzmann Machines

Neural Information Processing Systems

Training Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) has been challenging for a long time due to the difficulty of computing precisely the log-likelihood gradient. Over the past decades, many works have proposed more or less successful recipes but without studying systematically the crucial quantity of the problem: the mixing time i.e. the number of MCMC iterations needed to sample completely new configurations from a model. In this work, we show that this mixing time plays a crucial role in the behavior and stability of the trained model, and that RBMs operate in two well-defined distinct regimes, namely equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium, depending on the interplay between this mixing time of the model and the number of MCMC steps, k, used to approximate the gradient. We further show empirically that this mixing time increases along the learning, which often implies a transition from one regime to another as soon as k becomes smaller than this time.In particular, we show that using the popular k (persistent) contrastive divergence approaches, with k small, the dynamics of the fitted model are extremely slow and often dominated by strong out-of-equilibrium effects. On the contrary, RBMs trained in equilibrium display much faster dynamics, and a smooth convergence to dataset-like configurations during the sampling.Finally, we discuss how to exploit in practice both regimes depending on the task one aims to fulfill: (i) short k s can be used to generate convincing samples in short learning times, (ii) large k (or increasingly large) must be used to learn the correct equilibrium distribution of the RBM.


Regime Switching Bandits

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a multi-armed bandit problem where the rewards exhibit regime switching. Specifically, the distributions of the random rewards generated from all arms are modulated by a common underlying state modeled as a finite-state Markov chain. The agent does not observe the underlying state and has to learn the transition matrix and the reward distributions. We propose a learning algorithm for this problem, building on spectral method-of-moments estimations for hidden Markov models, belief error control in partially observable Markov decision processes and upper-confidence-bound methods for online learning. We also establish an upper bound O(T {2/3}\sqrt{\log T}) for the proposed learning algorithm where T is the learning horizon. Finally, we conduct proof-of-concept experiments to illustrate the performance of the learning algorithm.


Towards Instance-Optimal Offline Reinforcement Learning with Pessimism

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the \emph{offline reinforcement learning} (offline RL) problem, where the goal is to learn a reward-maximizing policy in an unknown \emph{Markov Decision Process} (MDP) using the data coming from a policy \mu . In particular, we consider the sample complexity problems of offline RL for the finite horizon MDPs. Prior works derive the information-theoretical lower bounds based on different data-coverage assumptions and their upper bounds are expressed by the covering coefficients which lack the explicit characterization of system quantities. Here \pi \star is a optimal policy, \mu is the behavior policy and d(s_h,a_h) is the marginal state-action probability. We call this adaptive bound the \emph{intrinsic offline reinforcement learning bound} since it directly implies all the existing optimal results: minimax rate under uniform data-coverage assumption, horizon-free setting, single policy concentrability, and the tight problem-dependent results.


Integrating Markov processes with structural causal modeling enables counterfactual inference in complex systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference. In contrast, structural causal models support counterfactual inference, but do not identify the mechanisms. We define the structural causal models in terms of the parameters and the equilibrium dynamics of the Markov process models, and counterfactual inference flows from these settings. The proposed approach alleviates the identifiability drawback of the structural causal models, in that the counterfactual inference is consistent with the counterfactual trajectories simulated from the Markov process model.


Stateful Posted Pricing with Vanishing Regret via Dynamic Deterministic Markov Decision Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, a rather general online problem called \emph{dynamic resource allocation with capacity constraints (DRACC)} is introduced and studied in the realm of posted price mechanisms. This problem subsumes several applications of stateful pricing, including but not limited to posted prices for online job scheduling and matching over a dynamic bipartite graph. As the existing online learning techniques do not yield vanishing-regret mechanisms for this problem, we develop a novel online learning framework defined over deterministic Markov decision processes with \emph{dynamic} state transition and reward functions. We then prove that if the Markov decision process is guaranteed to admit an oracle that can simulate any given policy from any initial state with bounded loss --- a condition that is satisfied in the DRACC problem --- then the online learning problem can be solved with vanishing regret. Our proof technique is based on a reduction to online learning with \emph{switching cost}, in which an online decision maker incurs an extra cost every time she switches from one arm to another.