In probably approximately correct (PAC) reinforcement learning (RL), an agent is required to identify an \epsilon -optimal policy with probability 1-\delta . While minimax optimal algorithms exist for this problem, its instance-dependent complexity remains elusive in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose the first nearly matching (up to a horizon squared factor and logarithmic terms) upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity of PAC RL in deterministic episodic MDPs with finite state and action spaces. In particular, our bounds feature a new notion of sub-optimality gap for state-action pairs that we call the deterministic return gap. While our instance-dependent lower bound is written as a linear program, our algorithms are very simple and do not require solving such an optimization problem during learning.

Continuous hidden Markov models (HMMs) assume that observations are generated from a mixture of Gaussian densities, limiting their ability to model more complex distributions. In this work, we address this shortcoming and propose novel continuous HMM models, dubbed FlowHMMs, that enable learning general continuous observation densities without constraining them to follow a Gaussian distribution or their mixtures. To that end, we leverage deep flow-based architectures that model complex, non-Gaussian functions and propose two variants of training a FlowHMM model. The first one, based on gradient-based technique, can be applied directly to continuous multidimensional data, yet its application to larger data sequences remains computationally expensive. Therefore, we also present a second approach to training our FlowHMM that relies on the co-occurrence matrix of discretized observations and considers the joint distribution of pairs of co-observed values, hence rendering the training time independent of the training sequence length.

A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a poor approximation of the much more complex true data generating process, leading to suboptimal estimation. The subtleties of the generative process are however captured in the data itself and we can learn to infer'', that is, learn a direct mapping from observations to explanatory latent variables. In this work we propose a hybrid model that combines graphical inference with a learned inverse model, which we structure as in a graph neural network, while the iterative algorithm as a whole is formulated as a recurrent neural network. By using cross-validation we can automatically balance the amount of work performed by graphical inference versus learned inference.

Agents trained via deep reinforcement learning (RL) routinely fail to generalize to unseen environments, even when these share the same underlying dynamics as the training levels. Understanding the generalization properties of RL is one of the challenges of modern machine learning. Towards this goal, we analyze policy learning in the context of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and formalize the dynamics of training levels as instances. We prove that, independently of the exploration strategy, reusing instances introduces significant changes on the effective Markov dynamics the agent observes during training. Maximizing expected rewards impacts the learned belief state of the agent by inducing undesired instance-specific speed-running policies instead of generalizable ones, which are sub-optimal on the training set.

We study a constructive procedure that approximates Gateaux derivatives for statistical functionals by finite-differencing, with attention to causal inference functionals. We focus on the case where probability distributions are not known a priori but need also to be estimated from data, leading to empirical Gateaux derivatives, and study relationships between empirical, numerical, and analytical Gateaux derivatives. Starting with a case study of counterfactual mean estimation, we verify the exact relationship between finite-differences and the analytical Gateaux derivative. We then derive requirements on the rates of numerical approximation in perturbation and smoothing that preserve statistical benefits. We study more complicated functionals such as dynamic treatment regimes and the linear-programming formulation for policy optimization infinite-horizon Markov decision processes.

We study the following learning problem with dependent data: Given a trajectory of length n from a stationary Markov chain with k states, the goal is to predict the distribution of the next state. These nonparametric rates can be attributed to the memory in the data, as the spectral gap of the Markov chain can be arbitrarily small. To quantify the memory effect, we study irreducible reversible chains with a prescribed spectral gap. In addition to characterizing the optimal prediction risk for two states, we show that, as long as the spectral gap is not excessively small, the prediction risk in the Markov model is O(\frac{k 2}{n}), which coincides with that of an iid model with the same number of parameters.

This work introduces macro-action discovery using value-of-information (VoI) for robust and efficient planning in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). POMDPs are a powerful framework for planning under uncertainty. Previous approaches have used high-level macro-actions within POMDP policies to reduce planning complexity. However, macro-action design is often heuristic and rarely comes with performance guarantees. Here, we present a method for extracting belief-dependent, variable-length macro-actions directly from a low-level POMDP model. We construct macro-actions by chaining sequences of open-loop actions together when the task-specific value of information (VoI) --- the change in expected task performance caused by observations in the current planning iteration --- is low.

A fundamental goal of systems neuroscience is to understand the relationship between neural activity and behavior. Behavior has traditionally been characterized by low-dimensional, task-related variables such as movement speed or response times. More recently, there has been a growing interest in automated analysis of high-dimensional video data collected during experiments. Here we introduce a probabilistic framework for the analysis of behavioral video and neural activity. This framework provides tools for compression, segmentation, generation, and decoding of behavioral videos.

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show that non-sampling-based latent state inference used in HSMM's can be generalized to latent Continuous-Time semi-Markov Chains (CTSMC's). We formulate integro-differential forward and backward equations adjusted to the observation likelihood and introduce an exact integral equation for the Bayesian posterior marginals and a scalable Viterbi-type algorithm for posterior path estimates. The presented equations can be efficiently solved using well-known numerical methods.

We consider the problem of online reinforcement learning when several state representations (mapping histories to a discrete state space) are available to the learning agent. At least one of these representations is assumed to induce a Markov decision process (MDP), and the performance of the agent is measured in terms of cumulative regret against the optimal policy giving the highest average reward in this MDP representation. We propose an algorithm (UCB-MS) with O(sqrt(T)) regret in any communicating Markov decision process. The regret bound shows that UCB-MS automatically adapts to the Markov model. This improves over the currently known best results in the literature that gave regret bounds of order O(T (2/3)).