General state-space models (SSMs) are widely used in statistical machine learning and are among the most classical generative models for sequential time-series data. SSMs, comprising latent Markovian states, can be subjected to variational inference (VI), but standard VI methods like the importance-weighted autoencoder (IWAE) lack functionality for streaming data. To enable online VI in SSMs when the observations are received in real time, we propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function, rather than the standard IWAE ELBO, using stochastic approximation. Unlike the recursive maximum likelihood method, which directly maximises the asymptotic contrast, our approach, called online sequential IWAE (OSIWAE), allows for online learning of both model parameters and a Markovian recognition model for inferring latent states. By approximating filter state posteriors and their derivatives using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, we create a particle-based framework for online VI in SSMs. This approach is more theoretically well-founded than recently proposed online variational SMC methods. We provide rigorous theoretical results on the learning objective and a numerical study demonstrating the method's efficiency in learning model parameters and particle proposal kernels.

Recent work has demonstrated that a promising strategy for teaching robots a wide range of complex skills is by training them on a curriculum of progressively more challenging environments. However, developing an effective curriculum of environment distributions currently requires significant expertise, which must be repeated for every new domain. Our key insight is that environments are often naturally represented as code. Thus, we probe whether effective environment curriculum design can be achieved and automated via code generation by large language models (LLM). In this paper, we introduce Eurekaverse, an unsupervised environment design algorithm that uses LLMs to sample progressively more challenging, diverse, and learnable environments for skill training. We validate Eurekaverse's effectiveness in the domain of quadrupedal parkour learning, in which a quadruped robot must traverse through a variety of obstacle courses. The automatic curriculum designed by Eurekaverse enables gradual learning of complex parkour skills in simulation and can successfully transfer to the real-world, outperforming manual training courses designed by humans.

Effective communication is an essential component in collaborative multi-agent systems. Situations where explicit messaging is not feasible have been common in human society throughout history, which motivate the study of implicit communication. Previous works on learning implicit communication mostly rely on theory of mind (ToM), where agents infer the mental states and intentions of others by interpreting their actions. However, ToM-based methods become less effective in making accurate inferences in complex tasks. In this work, we propose the Implicit Channel Protocol (ICP) framework, which allows agents to construct implicit communication channels similar to the explicit ones. ICP leverages a subset of actions, denoted as the scouting actions, and a mapping between information and these scouting actions that encodes and decodes the messages. We propose training algorithms for agents to message and act, including learning with a randomly initialized information map and with a delayed information map. The efficacy of ICP has been tested on the tasks of Guessing Number, Revealing Goals, and Hanabi, where ICP significantly outperforms baseline methods through more efficient information transmission.

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the conformity or nonconformity between predictions and true labels. However, conducting conformal inference for hidden states under hidden Markov models (HMMs) presents a significant challenge, as the hidden state data is unavailable, resulting in the absence of a true label set to serve as a conformal calibration set. This paper proposes an adaptive conformal inference framework that leverages a particle filtering approach to address this issue. Rather than directly focusing on the unobservable hidden state, we innovatively use weighted particles as an approximation of the actual posterior distribution of the hidden state. Our goal is to produce prediction sets that encompass these particles to achieve a specific aggregate weight sum, referred to as the aggregated coverage level. The proposed framework can adapt online to the time-varying distribution of data and achieve the defined marginal aggregated coverage level in both one-step and multi-step inference over the long term. We verify the effectiveness of this approach through a real-time target localization simulation study.

Developing foundational world models is a key research direction for embodied intelligence, with the ability to adapt to non-stationary environments being a crucial criterion. In this work, we introduce a new formalism, Hidden Parameter-POMDP, designed for control with adaptive world models. We demonstrate that this approach enables learning robust behaviors across a variety of non-stationary RL benchmarks. Additionally, this formalism effectively learns task abstractions in an unsupervised manner, resulting in structured, task-aware latent spaces.

This paper develops theory and algorithms for interacting large language model agents (LLMAs) using methods from statistical signal processing and microeconomics. While both fields are mature, their application to decision-making by interacting LLMAs remains unexplored. Motivated by Bayesian sentiment analysis on online platforms, we construct interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms that enable LLMAs to interact and perform Bayesian inference. Because interacting LLMAs learn from prior decisions and external inputs, they exhibit bias and herding behavior. Thus, developing interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms is essential to understand and mitigate these behaviors. This paper has three main results. First, we show using Bayesian revealed preferences from microeconomics that an individual LLMA satisfies the sufficient conditions for rationally inattentive (bounded rationality) utility maximization and, given an observation, the LLMA chooses an action that maximizes a regularized utility. Second, we utilize Bayesian social learning to construct interpretable models for LLMAs that interact sequentially with each other and the environment while performing Bayesian inference. Our models capture the herding behavior exhibited by interacting LLMAs. Third, we propose a stochastic control framework to delay herding and improve state estimation accuracy under two settings: (a) centrally controlled LLMAs and (b) autonomous LLMAs with incentives. Throughout the paper, we demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on real datasets for hate speech classification and product quality assessment, using open-source models like Mistral and closed-source models like ChatGPT. The main takeaway of this paper, based on substantial empirical analysis and mathematical formalism, is that LLMAs act as rationally bounded Bayesian agents that exhibit social learning when interacting.

Financial AI empowers sophisticated approaches to financial market forecasting, portfolio optimization, and automated trading. This survey provides a systematic analysis of these developments across three primary dimensions: predictive models that capture complex market dynamics, decision-making frameworks that optimize trading and investment strategies, and knowledge augmentation systems that leverage unstructured financial information. We examine significant innovations including foundation models for financial time series, graph-based architectures for market relationship modeling, and hierarchical frameworks for portfolio optimization. Analysis reveals crucial trade-offs between model sophistication and practical constraints, particularly in high-frequency trading applications. We identify critical gaps and open challenges between theoretical advances and industrial implementation, outlining open challenges and opportunities for improving both model performance and practical applicability.

Recent years have witnessed the rapid development of Neuro-Symbolic (NeSy) AI systems, which integrate symbolic reasoning into deep neural networks. However, most of the existing benchmarks for NeSy AI fail to provide long-horizon reasoning tasks with complex multi-agent interactions. Furthermore, they are usually constrained by fixed and simplistic logical rules over limited entities, making them far from real-world complexities. To address these crucial gaps, we introduce LogiCity, the first simulator based on customizable first-order logic (FOL) for an urban-like environment with multiple dynamic agents. LogiCity models diverse urban elements using semantic and spatial concepts, such as IsAmbulance(X) and IsClose(X, Y). These concepts are used to define FOL rules that govern the behavior of various agents. Since the concepts and rules are abstractions, they can be universally applied to cities with any agent compositions, facilitating the instantiation of diverse scenarios. Besides, a key feature of LogiCity is its support for user-configurable abstractions, enabling customizable simulation complexities for logical reasoning. To explore various aspects of NeSy AI, LogiCity introduces two tasks, one features long-horizon sequential decision-making, and the other focuses on one-step visual reasoning, varying in difficulty and agent behaviors. Our extensive evaluation reveals the advantage of NeSy frameworks in abstract reasoning. Moreover, we highlight the significant challenges of handling more complex abstractions in long-horizon multi-agent scenarios or under high-dimensional, imbalanced data. With its flexible design, various features, and newly raised challenges, we believe LogiCity represents a pivotal step forward in advancing the next generation of NeSy AI. All the code and data are open-sourced at our website.

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed many scientific fields, with microbiology and microbiome research now experiencing significant breakthroughs through machine learning and deep learning applications. This review provides a comprehensive overview of AI-driven approaches tailored for microbiology and microbiome studies, emphasizing both technical advancements and biological insights. We begin with an introduction to foundational AI techniques, including primary machine learning paradigms and various deep learning architectures, and offer guidance on choosing between machine learning and deep learning methods based on specific research goals. The primary section on application scenarios spans diverse research areas, from taxonomic profiling, functional annotation & prediction, microbe-X interactions, microbial ecology, metabolic modeling, precision nutrition, clinical microbiology, to prevention & therapeutics. Finally, we discuss challenges unique to this field, including the balance between interpretability and complexity, the "small n, large p" problem, and the critical need for standardized benchmarking datasets to validate and compare models. Together, this review underscores AI's transformative role in microbiology and microbiome research, paving the way for innovative methodologies and applications that enhance our understanding of microbial life and its impact on our planet and our health.

In the context of autonomous driving, learning-based methods have been promising for the development of planning modules. During the training process of planning modules, directly minimizing the discrepancy between expert-driving logs and planning output is widely deployed. In general, driving logs consist of suddenly appearing obstacles or swiftly changing traffic signals, which typically necessitate swift and nuanced adjustments in driving maneuvers. Concurrently, future trajectories of the vehicles exhibit their long-term decisions, such as adhering to a reference lane or circumventing stationary obstacles. Due to the unpredictable influence of future events in driving logs, reasoning bias could be naturally introduced to learning based planning modules, which leads to a possible degradation of driving performance. To address this issue, we identify the decisions and their corresponding time horizons, and characterize a so-called decision scope by retaining decisions within derivable horizons only, to mitigate the effect of irrational behaviors caused by unpredictable events. This framework employs wavelet transformation based log preprocessing with an effective loss computation approach, rendering the planning model only sensitive to valuable decisions at the current state. Since frequency domain characteristics are extracted in conjunction with time domain features by wavelets, decision information across various frequency bands within the corresponding time horizon can be suitably captured. Furthermore, to achieve valuable decision learning, this framework leverages a transformer based decoder that incrementally generates the detailed profiles of future decisions over multiple steps. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines in terms of driving scores with closed-loop evaluations on the nuPlan dataset.