Real-world decision-making tasks are usually partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), where the state is not fully observable. Recent progress has demonstrated that recurrent reinforcement learning (RL), which consists of a context encoder based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for unobservable state prediction and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) policy for decision making, can mitigate partial observability and serve as a robust baseline for POMDP tasks. However, prior recurrent RL algorithms have faced issues with training instability. In this paper, we find that this instability stems from the autoregressive nature of RNNs, which causes even small changes in RNN parameters to produce large output variations over long trajectories.

Intensive algorithmic efforts have been made to enable the rapid improvements of certificated robustness for complex ML models recently. However, current robustness certification methods are only able to certify under a limited perturbation radius. Given that existing pure data-driven statistical approaches have reached a bottleneck, in this paper, we propose to integrate statistical ML models with knowledge (expressed as logical rules) as a reasoning component using Markov logic networks (MLN), so as to further improve the overall certified robustness. This opens new research questions about certifying the robustness of such a paradigm, especially the reasoning component (e.g., MLN). As the first step towards understanding these questions, we first prove that the computational complexity of certifying the robustness of MLN is #P-hard. Guided by this hardness result, we then derive the first certified robustness bound for MLN by carefully analyzing different model regimes. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on five datasets including both high-dimensional images and natural language texts, and we show that the certified robustness with knowledge-based logical reasoning indeed significantly outperforms that of the state-of-the-arts.

We study the following learning problem with dependent data: Given a trajectory of length $n$ from a stationary Markov chain with $k$ states, the goal is to predict the distribution of the next state.

This paper studies first-order policy optimization for robust average cost Markov decision processes (MDPs). Specifically, we focus on ergodic Markov chains. For robust average cost MDPs, the goal is to optimize the worst-case average cost over an uncertainty set of transition kernels. We first develop a sub-gradient of the robust average cost. Based on the sub-gradient, a robust policy mirror descent approach is further proposed. To characterize its iteration complexity, we develop a lower bound on the difference of robust average cost between two policies and further show that the robust average cost satisfies the PL-condition. We then show that with increasing step size, our robust policy mirror descent achieves a linear convergence rate in the optimality gap, and with constant step size, our algorithm converges to an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with an iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon)$. The convergence rate of our algorithm matches with the best convergence rate of policy-based algorithms for robust MDPs. Moreover, our algorithm is the first algorithm that converges to the global optimum with general uncertainty sets for robust average cost MDPs. We provide simulation results to demonstrate the performance of our algorithm.

Memory models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Transformers address Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) by mapping trajectories to latent Markov states. Neither model scales particularly well to long sequences, especially compared to an emerging class of memory models called Linear Recurrent Models. We discover that the recurrent update of these models resembles a monoid, leading us to reformulate existing models using a novel monoid-based framework that we call memoroids. We revisit the traditional approach to batching in recurrent reinforcement learning, highlighting theoretical and empirical deficiencies. We leverage memoroids to propose a batching method that improves sample efficiency, increases the return, and simplifies the implementation of recurrent loss functions in reinforcement learning.

Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.

We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning method for continuous state-action systems under significant observation noise. Data-efficient solutions under small noise exist, such as PILCO which learns the cartpole swing-up task in 30s. PILCO evaluates policies by planning state-trajectories using a dynamics model. However, PILCO applies policies to the observed state, therefore planning in observation space. We extend PILCO with filtering to instead plan in belief space, consistent with partially observable Markov decisions process (POMDP) planning. This enables data-efficient learning under significant observation noise, outperforming more naive methods such as post-hoc application of a filter to policies optimised by the original (unfiltered) PILCO algorithm. We test our method on the cartpole swing-up task, which involves nonlinear dynamics and requires nonlinear control.

Count-based exploration algorithms are known to perform near-optimally when used in conjunction with tabular reinforcement learning (RL) methods for solving small discrete Markov decision processes (MDPs). It is generally thought that count-based methods cannot be applied in high-dimensional state spaces, since most states will only occur once. Recent deep RL exploration strategies are able to deal with high-dimensional continuous state spaces through complex heuristics, often relying on optimism in the face of uncertainty or intrinsic motivation. In this work, we describe a surprising finding: a simple generalization of the classic count-based approach can reach near state-of-the-art performance on various high-dimensional and/or continuous deep RL benchmarks. States are mapped to hash codes, which allows to count their occurrences with a hash table.

This paper considers a number of related inverse filtering problems for hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, given a sequence of state posteriors and the system dynamics; i) estimate the corresponding sequence of observations, ii) estimate the observation likelihoods, and iii) jointly estimate the observation likelihoods and the observation sequence. We show how to avoid a computationally expensive mixed integer linear program (MILP) by exploiting the algebraic structure of the HMM filter using simple linear algebra operations, and provide conditions for when the quantities can be uniquely reconstructed. We also propose a solution to the more general case where the posteriors are noisily observed. Finally, the proposed inverse filtering algorithms are evaluated on real-world polysomnographic data used for automatic sleep segmentation.

As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale, particularly in online domains, there is an increasing need for choice models flexible enough to handle data that violate traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, or Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume these traditional axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, which can be viewed as a weaker version of Luce's axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model in prediction tasks on two empirical data sets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.