Abstract: We use the law of total variance to generate multiple expansions for the posterior predictive variance. These expansions are sums of terms involving conditional expectations and conditional variances and provide a quantification of the sources of predictive uncertainty. Since the posterior predictive variance is fixed given the model, it represents a constant quantity that is conserved over these expansions. The terms in the expansions can be assessed in absolute or relative sense to understand the main contributors to the length of prediction intervals. We quantify the term-wise uncertainty across expansions varying in the number of terms and the order of conditionates. In particular, given that a specific term in one expansion is small or zero, we identify the other terms in other expansions that must also be small or zero. We illustrate this approach to predictive model assessment in several well-known models. The Setting and Intuition Everyone uses prediction intervals (PI's) but few examine their structure or more precisely how they should be interpreted in the context of a model with multiple components. Often PI's seem overconfident (too narrow) or useless (too wide). Both frequentist and Bayesian practitioners routinely report PI's.

We propose a new framework for formulating optimal transport distances between Markov chains. Previously known formulations studied couplings between the entire joint distribution induced by the chains, and derived solutions via a reduction to dynamic programming (DP) in an appropriately defined Markov decision process. This formulation has, however, not led to particularly efficient algorithms so far, since computing the associated DP operators requires fully solving a static optimal transport problem, and these operators need to be applied numerous times during the overall optimization process. In this work, we develop an alternative perspective by considering couplings between a ``flattened'' version of the joint distributions that we call discounted occupancy couplings, and show that calculating optimal transport distances in the full space of joint distributions can be equivalently formulated as solving a linear program (LP) in this reduced space. This LP formulation formulation allows us to port several algorithmic ideas from other areas of optimal transport theory. In particular, our formulation makes it possible to introduce an appropriate notion of entropy regularization into the optimization problem, which in turn enables us to directly calculate optimal transport distances via a Sinkhorn-like method we call Sinkhorn Value Iteration (SVI). We show both theoretically and empirically that this method converges quickly to an optimal coupling, essentially at the same computational cost of running vanilla Sinkhorn in each pair of states. Along the way, we point out that our optimal transport distance exactly matches the common notion of bisimulation metrics between Markov chains, and thus our results also apply to computing such metrics, and in fact our algorithm turns out to be significantly more efficient than the best known methods developed so far for this purpose.

Neural population activity often exhibits distinct dynamical features across time, which may correspond to distinct internal processes or behavior. Linear methods and variations thereof, such as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS), are often employed to identify discrete states with evolving neural dynamics. However, these techniques may not be able to capture the underlying nonlinear dynamics associated with neural propagation. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are commonly used to model neural dynamics thanks to their nonlinear characteristics. In our work, we develop Switching Recurrent Neural Networks (SRNN), RNNs with weights that switch across time, to reconstruct switching dynamics of neural time-series data. We apply these models to simulated data as well as cortical neural activity across mice and monkeys, which allows us to automatically detect discrete states that lead to the identification of varying neural dynamics. In a monkey reaching dataset with electrophysiology recordings, a mouse self-initiated lever pull dataset with widefield calcium recordings, and a mouse self-initiated decision making dataset with widefield calcium recording, SRNNs are able to automatically identify discrete states with distinct nonlinear neural dynamics. The inferred switches are aligned with the behavior, and the reconstructions show that the recovered neural dynamics are distinct across different stages of the behavior. We show that the neural dynamics have behaviorally-relevant switches across time and we are able to use SRNNs to successfully capture these switches and the corresponding dynamical features.

Despite the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) on various tasks following human instructions, controlling model generation to follow strict constraints at inference time poses a persistent challenge. In this paper, we introduce Ctrl-G, a neuro-symbolic framework that enables tractable and adaptable control of LLM generation to follow logical constraints reliably. Ctrl-G combines any production-ready LLM with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), guiding LLM outputs to adhere to logical constraints represented as deterministic finite automata. We show that Ctrl-G, when a TULU2-7B model is coupled with a 2B-parameter HMM, outperforms GPT4 in text editing: on the task of generating text insertions/continuations following logical constraints, our approach achieves over 30% higher satisfaction rate in human evaluation. When applied to medium-size language models (e.g., GPT2-large), Ctrl-G also beats its counterparts on standard benchmarks by large margins. Additionally, as a proof-of-concept study, we use Ctrl-G to assist LLM reasoning on the GSM benchmark, foreshadowing the application of Ctrl-G, as well as other constrained generation approaches, beyond traditional language generation tasks.

Diffusion-based models have achieved notable empirical successes in reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex distributions. Despite existing methods being promising, the key challenge of extending existing methods for broader real-world applications lies in the computational cost at inference time, i.e., sampling from a diffusion model is considerably slow as it often requires tens to hundreds of iterations to generate even one sample. To circumvent this issue, we propose to leverage the flexibility of diffusion models for RL from a representation learning perspective. In particular, by exploiting the connection between diffusion models and energy-based models, we develop Diffusion Spectral Representation (Diff-SR), a coherent algorithm framework that enables extracting sufficient representations for value functions in Markov decision processes (MDP) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). We further demonstrate how Diff-SR facilitates efficient policy optimization and practical algorithms while explicitly bypassing the difficulty and inference cost of sampling from the diffusion model. Finally, we provide comprehensive empirical studies to verify the benefits of Diff-SR in delivering robust and advantageous performance across various benchmarks with both fully and partially observable settings.

Generating simulations to train intelligent agents in game-playing and robotics from natural language input, user input, or task documentation remains an open-ended challenge. Existing approaches focus on parts of this challenge, such as generating reward functions or task hyperparameters. Unlike previous work, we introduce FACTORSIM that generates full simulations in code from language input that can be used to train agents. Exploiting the structural modularity specific to coded simulations, we propose to use a factored partially observable Markov decision process representation that allows us to reduce context dependence during each step of the generation. For evaluation, we introduce a generative simulation benchmark that assesses the generated simulation code's accuracy and effectiveness in facilitating zero-shot transfers in reinforcement learning settings. We show that FACTORSIM outperforms existing methods in generating simulations regarding prompt alignment (i.e., accuracy), zero-shot transfer abilities, and human evaluation. We also demonstrate its effectiveness in generating robotic tasks.

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) in $H$-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the linear $q^\pi$-realizability assumption, where the action-value function of every policy is linear with respect to a given $d$-dimensional feature function. The hope in this setting is that learning a good policy will be possible without requiring a sample size that scales with the number of states in the MDP. Foster et al. [2021] have shown this to be impossible even under $\text{\textit{concentrability}}$, a data coverage assumption where a coefficient $C_\text{conc}$ bounds the extent to which the state-action distribution of any policy can veer off the data distribution. However, the data in this previous work was in the form of a sequence of individual transitions. This leaves open the question of whether the negative result mentioned could be overcome if the data was composed of sequences of full trajectories.

Partial observability of the underlying states generally presents significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In practice, certain, e.g., the access to states from simulators, has been exploited in training and achieved prominent empirical successes. To better understand the benefits of privileged information, we revisit and examine several simple and practically used paradigms in this setting, with both computation and sample efficiency analyses. Specifically, we first formalize the empirical paradigm of (also known as learning), demonstrating its pitfall in finding near-optimal policies. We then identify a condition of the partially observable environment, the deterministic filter condition, under which expert distillation achieves sample and computational complexities that are polynomial. Furthermore, we investigate another successful empirical paradigm of, and focus on the more challenging setting of observable partially observable Markov decision processes. We develop a belief-weighted optimistic asymmetric actor-critic algorithm with polynomial sample and quasi-polynomial computational complexities, where one key component is a new provable oracle for learning belief states that preserve under a misspecified model, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we also investigate the provable efficiency of partially observable multi-agent RL (MARL) with privileged information.

The standard approach for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is to convert them to a fully observed belief-state MDP. However, the belief state depends on the system model and is therefore not viable in reinforcement learning (RL) settings. A widely used alternative is to use an agent state, which is a model-free, recursively updateable function of the observation history. Examples include frame stacking and recurrent neural networks. Since the agent state is model-free, it is used to adapt standard RL algorithms to POMDPs. However, standard RL algorithms like Q-learning learn a stationary policy.

Planning in real-world settings often entails addressing partial observability while aligning with users' requirements. We present a novel framework for expressing users' constraints and preferences about agent behavior in a partially observable setting using parameterized belief-state query (BSQ) policies in the setting of goal-oriented partially observable Markov decision processes (gPOMDPs). We present the first formal analysis of such constraints and prove that while the expected cost function of a parameterized BSQ policy w.r.t its parameters is not convex, it is piecewise constant and yields an implicit discrete parameter search space that is finite for finite horizons. This theoretical result leads to novel algorithms that optimize gPOMDP agent behavior with guaranteed user alignment. Analysis proves that our algorithms converge to the optimal user-aligned behavior in the limit. Empirical results show that parameterized BSQ policies provide a computationally feasible approach for user-aligned planning in partially observable settings.