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 Markov Models


Value Iteration with Guessing for Markov Chains and Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two standard models for probabilistic systems are Markov chains (MCs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Classic objectives for such probabilistic models for control and planning problems are reachability and stochastic shortest path. The widely studied algorithmic approach for these problems is the Value Iteration (VI) algorithm which iteratively applies local updates called Bellman updates. There are many practical approaches for VI in the literature but they all require exponentially many Bellman updates for MCs in the worst case. A preprocessing step is an algorithm that is discrete, graph-theoretical, and requires linear space. An important open question is whether, after a polynomial-time preprocessing, VI can be achieved with sub-exponentially many Bellman updates. In this work, we present a new approach for VI based on guessing values. Our theoretical contributions are twofold. First, for MCs, we present an almost-linear-time preprocessing algorithm after which, along with guessing values, VI requires only subexponentially many Bellman updates. Second, we present an improved analysis of the speed of convergence of VI for MDPs. Finally, we present a practical algorithm for MDPs based on our new approach. Experimental results show that our approach provides a considerable improvement over existing VI-based approaches on several benchmark examples from the literature.


A Survey on Data-Driven Modeling of Human Drivers' Lane-Changing Decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Lane-changing (LC) behavior, a critical yet complex driving maneuver, significantly influences driving safety and traffic dynamics. Traditional analytical LC decision (LCD) models, while effective in specific environments, often oversimplify behavioral heterogeneity and complex interactions, limiting their capacity to capture real LCD. Data-driven approaches address these gaps by leveraging rich empirical data and machine learning to decode latent decision-making patterns, enabling adaptive LCD modeling in dynamic environments. In light of the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the demand for data-driven models oriented towards connected vehicles and autonomous vehicles, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of data-driven LCD models, with a particular focus on human drivers' LC decision-making. It systematically reviews the modeling framework, covering data sources and preprocessing, model inputs and outputs, objectives, structures, and validation methods. This survey further discusses the opportunities and challenges faced by data-driven LCD models, including driving safety, uncertainty, as well as the integration and improvement of technical frameworks. Compared to car-following (CF) behavior, LC behavior entails higher collision risks due to its dependency on holistic evaluations of traffic conditions in both the original and target lanes, requiring drivers to navigate multi-criteria decision-making processes. More specifically, safe LC execution necessitates gaps in the target lane to satisfy collision-avoidance criteria. Drivers must continuously monitor the real-time states of surrounding vehicles (e.g., velocity, acceleration) and adjust their LC maneuvers in response to unexpected behavioral changes (e.g., sudden deceleration, lane encroachment). Human drivers' irrational decision-making (e.g., sudden risk-preference shifts) in dynamic environments pose challenges to traditional LC models based on hypothesis of rational man. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72288101, 72171018, 72242102). D.-F Xie is with the School of Systems Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China (e-mail: dfxie@bjtu.edu.cn). L. Li is with the Department of Automation, BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. He is with Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, the United States (e-mail: he.zb@hotmail.com) This effort will provide critical support for trustworthy traffic simulations, dynamic traffic management, and LC decision-making of autonomous vehicles (A Vs).


UniCO: Towards a Unified Model for Combinatorial Optimization Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Combinatorial Optimization (CO) encompasses a wide range of problems that arise in many real-world scenarios. While significant progress has been made in developing learning-based methods for specialized CO problems, a unified model with a single architecture and parameter set for diverse CO problems remains elusive. Such a model would offer substantial advantages in terms of efficiency and convenience. In this paper, we introduce UniCO, a unified model for solving various CO problems. Inspired by the success of next-token prediction, we frame each problem-solving process as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), tokenize the corresponding sequential trajectory data, and train the model using a transformer backbone. To reduce token length in the trajectory data, we propose a CO-prefix design that aggregates static problem features. To address the heterogeneity of state and action tokens within the MDP, we employ a two-stage self-supervised learning approach. In this approach, a dynamic prediction model is first trained and then serves as a pre-trained model for subsequent policy generation. Experiments across 10 CO problems showcase the versatility of UniCO, emphasizing its ability to generalize to new, unseen problems with minimal fine-tuning, achieving even few-shot or zero-shot performance. Our framework offers a valuable complement to existing neural CO methods that focus on optimizing performance for individual problems.


Data-Dependent Hidden Markov Model with Off-Road State Determination and Real-Time Viterbi Algorithm for Lane Determination in Autonomous Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lane determination and lane sequence determination are important components for many Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) applications. Lane determination has been solved using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) among other methods. The existing HMM literature for lane sequence determination uses empirical definitions with user-modified parameters to calculate HMM probabilities. The probability definitions in the literature can cause breaks in the HMM due to the inability to directly calculate probabilities of off-road positions, requiring post-processing of data. This paper develops a time-varying HMM using the physical properties of the roadway and vehicle, and the stochastic properties of the sensors. This approach yields emission and transition probability models conditioned on the sensor data without parameter tuning. It also accounts for the probability that the vehicle is not in any roadway lane (e.g., on the shoulder or making a U-turn), which eliminates the need for post-processing to deal with breaks in the HMM processing. This approach requires adapting the Viterbi algorithm and the HMM to be conditioned on the sensor data, which are then used to generate the most-likely sequence of lanes the vehicle has traveled. The proposed approach achieves an average accuracy of 95.9%. Compared to the existing literature, this provides an average increase of 2.25% by implementing the proposed transition probability and an average increase of 5.1% by implementing both the proposed transition and emission probabilities.


Automated Machine Learning: A Case Study on Non-Intrusive Appliance Load Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel approach to enable Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) for Non-Intrusive Appliance Load Monitoring (NIALM), also known as Energy Disaggregation, through Bayesian Optimization. NIALM offers a cost-effective alternative to smart meters for measuring the energy consumption of electric devices and appliances. NIALM methods analyze the entire power consumption signal of a household and predict the type of appliances as well as their individual power consumption (i.e., their contributions to the aggregated signal). We enable NIALM domain experts and practitioners who typically have no deep data analytics or Machine Learning (ML) skills to benefit from state-of-the-art ML approaches to NIALM. Further, we conduct a survey and benchmarking of the state of the art and show that in many cases, simple and basic ML models and algorithms, such as Decision Trees, outperform the state of the art. Finally, we present our open-source tool, AutoML4NIALM, which will facilitate the exploitation of existing methods for NIALM in the industry.


Efficient Sensorimotor Learning for Open-world Robot Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This dissertation considers Open-world Robot Manipulation, a manipulation problem where a robot must generalize or quickly adapt to new objects, scenes, or tasks for which it has not been pre-programmed or pre-trained. This dissertation tackles the problem using a methodology of efficient sensorimotor learning. The key to enabling efficient sensorimotor learning lies in leveraging regular patterns that exist in limited amounts of demonstration data. These patterns, referred to as ``regularity,'' enable the data-efficient learning of generalizable manipulation skills. This dissertation offers a new perspective on formulating manipulation problems through the lens of regularity. Building upon this notion, we introduce three major contributions. First, we introduce methods that endow robots with object-centric priors, allowing them to learn generalizable, closed-loop sensorimotor policies from a small number of teleoperation demonstrations. Second, we introduce methods that constitute robots' spatial understanding, unlocking their ability to imitate manipulation skills from in-the-wild video observations. Last but not least, we introduce methods that enable robots to identify reusable skills from their past experiences, resulting in systems that can continually imitate multiple tasks in a sequential manner. Altogether, the contributions of this dissertation help lay the groundwork for building general-purpose personal robots that can quickly adapt to new situations or tasks with low-cost data collection and interact easily with humans. By enabling robots to learn and generalize from limited data, this dissertation takes a step toward realizing the vision of intelligent robotic assistants that can be seamlessly integrated into everyday scenarios.


Learning Power Control Protocol for In-Factory 6G Subnetworks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-X Subnetworks are envisioned to meet the stringent demands of short-range communication in diverse 6G use cases. In the context of In-Factory scenarios, effective power control is critical to mitigating the impact of interference resulting from potentially high subnetwork density. Existing approaches to power control in this domain have predominantly emphasized the data plane, often overlooking the impact of signaling overhead. Furthermore, prior work has typically adopted a network-centric perspective, relying on the assumption of complete and up-to-date channel state information (CSI) being readily available at the central controller. This paper introduces a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework designed to enable access points to autonomously learn both signaling and power control protocols in an In-Factory Subnetwork environment. By formulating the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and leveraging multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO), the proposed approach achieves significant advantages. The simulation results demonstrate that the learning-based method reduces signaling overhead by a factor of 8 while maintaining a buffer flush rate that lags the ideal "Genie" approach by only 5%.


Automated Learning of Semantic Embedding Representations for Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative models capture the true distribution of data, yielding semantically rich representations. Denoising diffusion models (DDMs) exhibit superior generative capabilities, though efficient representation learning for them are lacking. In this work, we employ a multi-level denoising autoencoder framework to expand the representation capacity of DDMs, which introduces sequentially consistent Diffusion Transformers and an additional timestep-dependent encoder to acquire embedding representations on the denoising Markov chain through self-conditional diffusion learning. Intuitively, the encoder, conditioned on the entire diffusion process, compresses high-dimensional data into directional vectors in latent under different noise levels, facilitating the learning of image embeddings across all timesteps. To verify the semantic adequacy of embeddings generated through this approach, extensive experiments are conducted on various datasets, demonstrating that optimally learned embeddings by DDMs surpass state-of-the-art self-supervised representation learning methods in most cases, achieving remarkable discriminative semantic representation quality. Our work justifies that DDMs are not only suitable for generative tasks, but also potentially advantageous for general-purpose deep learning applications.


Comparative Study of Generative Models for Early Detection of Failures in Medical Devices

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The medical device industry has significantly advanced by integrating sophisticated electronics like microchips and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) to enhance the safety and usability of life-saving devices. These complex electro-mechanical systems, however, introduce challenging failure modes that are not easily detectable with conventional methods. Effective fault detection and mitigation become vital as reliance on such electronics grows. This paper explores three generative machine learning-based approaches for fault detection in medical devices, leveraging sensor data from surgical staplers,a class 2 medical device. Historically considered low-risk, these devices have recently been linked to an increasing number of injuries and fatalities. The study evaluates the performance and data requirements of these machine-learning approaches, highlighting their potential to enhance device safety.


Active Sampling for MRI-based Sequential Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the superior diagnostic capability of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), its use as a Point-of-Care (PoC) device remains limited by high cost and complexity. To enable such a future by reducing the magnetic field strength, one key approach will be to improve sampling strategies. Previous work has shown that it is possible to make diagnostic decisions directly from k-space with fewer samples. Such work shows that single diagnostic decisions can be made, but if we aspire to see MRI as a true PoC, multiple and sequential decisions are necessary while minimizing the number of samples acquired. We present a novel multi-objective reinforcement learning framework enabling comprehensive, sequential, diagnostic evaluation from undersampled k-space data. Our approach during inference actively adapts to sequential decisions to optimally sample. To achieve this, we introduce a training methodology that identifies the samples that contribute the best to each diagnostic objective using a step-wise weighting reward function. We evaluate our approach in two sequential knee pathology assessment tasks: ACL sprain detection and cartilage thickness loss assessment. Our framework achieves diagnostic performance competitive with various policy-based benchmarks on disease detection, severity quantification, and overall sequential diagnosis, while substantially saving k-space samples. Our approach paves the way for the future of MRI as a comprehensive and affordable PoC device. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/vios-s/MRI_Sequential_Active_Sampling