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 Markov Models


Learning Probabilistic Temporal Logic Specifications for Stochastic Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been substantial progress in the inference of formal behavioural specifications from sample trajectories, for example using Linear Temporal Logic (L TL). However, these techniques cannot handle specifications that correctly characterise systems with stochastic behaviour, which occur commonly in reinforcement learning and formal verification. We consider the passive learning problem of inferring a Boolean combination of probabilistic L TL (PL TL) formulas from a set of Markov chains, classified as either positive or negative. We propose a novel learning algorithm that infers concise PL TL specifications, leveraging grammar-based enumeration, search heuristics, probabilistic model checking and Boolean set-cover procedures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in two use cases: learning from policies induced by RL algorithms and learning from variants of a probabilistic model. In both cases, our method automatically and efficiently extracts PL TL specifications that succinctly characterize the temporal differences between the policies or model variants.


Adaptive Resolving Methods for Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) problems are fundamental in online decision-making and have been instrumental in finding an optimal policy for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Function approximations are usually deployed to handle large or infinite state-action space. In our work, we consider the RL problems with function approximation and we develop a new algorithm to solve it efficiently. Our algorithm is based on the linear programming (LP) reformulation and it resolves the LP at each iteration improved with new data arrival. Such a resolving scheme enables our algorithm to achieve an instance-dependent sample complexity guarantee, more precisely, when we have $N$ data, the output of our algorithm enjoys an instance-dependent $\tilde{O}(1/N)$ suboptimality gap. In comparison to the $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ worst-case guarantee established in the previous literature, our instance-dependent guarantee is tighter when the underlying instance is favorable, and the numerical experiments also reveal the efficient empirical performances of our algorithms.


Beyond Scalar Rewards: An Axiomatic Framework for Lexicographic MDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent work has formalized the reward hypothesis through the lens of expected utility theory, by interpreting reward as utility. Hausner's foundational work showed that dropping the continuity axiom leads to a generalization of expected utility theory where utilities are lexicographically ordered vectors of arbitrary dimension. In this paper, we extend this result by identifying a simple and practical condition under which preferences cannot be represented by scalar rewards, necessitating a 2-dimensional reward function. We provide a full characterization of such reward functions, as well as the general d-dimensional case, in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) under a memorylessness assumption on preferences. Furthermore, we show that optimal policies in this setting retain many desirable properties of their scalar-reward counterparts, while in the Constrained MDP (CMDP) setting -- another common multiobjective setting -- they do not.


The Gaussian-Multinoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine: A Potts Model Extension of the GRBM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many real-world tasks, from associative memory to symbolic reasoning, demand discrete, structured representations that standard continuous latent models struggle to express naturally. We introduce the Gaussian-Multinoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (GM-RBM), a generative energy-based model that extends the Gaussian-Bernoulli RBM (GB-RBM) by replacing binary hidden units with $q$-state Potts variables. This modification enables a combinatorially richer latent space and supports learning over multivalued, interpretable latent concepts. We formally derive GM-RBM's energy function, learning dynamics, and conditional distributions, showing that it preserves tractable inference and training through contrastive divergence. Empirically, we demonstrate that GM-RBMs model complex multimodal distributions more effectively than binary RBMs, outperforming them on tasks involving analogical recall and structured memory. Our results highlight GM-RBMs as a scalable framework for discrete latent inference with enhanced expressiveness and interoperability.


Learning to Play Like Humans: A Framework for LLM Adaptation in Interactive Fiction Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interactive Fiction games (IF games) are where players interact through natural language commands. While recent advances in Artificial Intelligence agents have reignited interest in IF games as a domain for studying decision-making, existing approaches prioritize task-specific performance metrics over human-like comprehension of narrative context and gameplay logic. This work presents a cognitively inspired framework that guides Large Language Models (LLMs) to learn and play IF games systematically. Our proposed **L**earning to **P**lay **L**ike **H**umans (LPLH) framework integrates three key components: (1) structured map building to capture spatial and narrative relationships, (2) action learning to identify context-appropriate commands, and (3) feedback-driven experience analysis to refine decision-making over time. By aligning LLMs-based agents' behavior with narrative intent and commonsense constraints, LPLH moves beyond purely exploratory strategies to deliver more interpretable, human-like performance. Crucially, this approach draws on cognitive science principles to more closely simulate how human players read, interpret, and respond within narrative worlds. As a result, LPLH reframes the IF games challenge as a learning problem for LLMs-based agents, offering a new path toward robust, context-aware gameplay in complex text-based environments.


When a Reinforcement Learning Agent Encounters Unknown Unknowns

arXiv.org Machine Learning

An AI agent might surprisingly find she has reached an unknown state which she has never been aware of -- an unknown unknown. We mathematically ground this scenario in reinforcement learning: an agent, after taking an action calculated from value functions $Q$ and $V$ defined on the {\it {aware domain}}, reaches a state out of the domain. To enable the agent to handle this scenario, we propose an {\it episodic Markov decision {process} with growing awareness} (EMDP-GA) model, taking a new {\it noninformative value expansion} (NIVE) approach to expand value functions to newly aware areas: when an agent arrives at an unknown unknown, value functions $Q$ and $V$ whereon are initialised by noninformative beliefs -- the averaged values on the aware domain. This design is out of respect for the complete absence of knowledge in the newly discovered state. The upper confidence bound momentum Q-learning is then adapted to the growing awareness for training the EMDP-GA model. We prove that (1) the regret of our approach is asymptotically consistent with the state of the art (SOTA) without exposure to unknown unknowns in an extremely uncertain environment, and (2) our computational complexity and space complexity are comparable with the SOTA -- these collectively suggest that though an unknown unknown is surprising, it will be asymptotically properly discovered with decent speed and an affordable cost.


CLT and Edgeworth Expansion for m-out-of-n Bootstrap Estimators of The Studentized Median

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The m-out-of-n bootstrap, originally proposed by Bickel, Gotze, and Zwet (1992), approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing m subsamples (with m much smaller than n) without replacement from an original sample of size n. It is now routinely used for robust inference with heavy-tailed data, bandwidth selection, and other large-sample applications. Despite its broad applicability across econometrics, biostatistics, and machine learning, rigorous parameter-free guarantees for the soundness of the m-out-of-n bootstrap when estimating sample quantiles have remained elusive. This paper establishes such guarantees by analyzing the estimator of sample quantiles obtained from m-out-of-n resampling of a dataset of size n. We first prove a central limit theorem for a fully data-driven version of the estimator that holds under a mild moment condition and involves no unknown nuisance parameters. We then show that the moment assumption is essentially tight by constructing a counter-example in which the CLT fails. Strengthening the assumptions slightly, we derive an Edgeworth expansion that provides exact convergence rates and, as a corollary, a Berry Esseen bound on the bootstrap approximation error. Finally, we illustrate the scope of our results by deriving parameter-free asymptotic distributions for practical statistics, including the quantiles for random walk Metropolis-Hastings and the rewards of ergodic Markov decision processes, thereby demonstrating the usefulness of our theory in modern estimation and learning tasks.


Synthesis of Communication Policies for Multi-Agent Systems Robust to Communication Restrictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study stochastic multi-agent systems in which agents must cooperate to maximize the probability of achieving a common reach-avoid objective. In many applications, during the execution of the system, the communication between the agents can be constrained by restrictions on the bandwidth currently available for exchanging local-state information between the agents. In this paper, we propose a method for computing joint action and communication policies for the group of agents that aim to satisfy the communication restrictions as much as possible while achieving the optimal reach-avoid probability when communication is unconstrained. Our method synthesizes a pair of action and communication policies robust to restrictions on the number of agents allowed to communicate. To this end, we introduce a novel cost function that measures the amount of information exchanged beyond what the communication policy allows. We evaluate our approach experimentally on a range of benchmarks and demonstrate that it is capable of computing pairs of action and communication policies that satisfy the communication restrictions, if such exist.


Enhancing LLMs for Time Series Forecasting via Structure-Guided Cross-Modal Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The emerging paradigm of leveraging pretrained large language models (LLMs) for time series forecasting has predominantly employed linguistic-temporal modality alignment strategies through token-level or layer-wise feature mapping. However, these approaches fundamentally neglect a critical insight: the core competency of LLMs resides not merely in processing localized token features but in their inherent capacity to model holistic sequence structures. This paper posits that effective cross-modal alignment necessitates structural consistency at the sequence level. We propose the Structure-Guided Cross-Modal Alignment (SGCMA), a framework that fully exploits and aligns the state-transition graph structures shared by time-series and linguistic data as sequential modalities, thereby endowing time series with language-like properties and delivering stronger generalization after modality alignment. SGCMA consists of two key components, namely Structure Alignment and Semantic Alignment. In Structure Alignment, a state transition matrix is learned from text data through Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and a shallow transformer-based Maximum Entropy Markov Model (MEMM) receives the hot-start transition matrix and annotates each temporal patch into state probability, ensuring that the temporal representation sequence inherits language-like sequential dynamics. In Semantic Alignment, cross-attention is applied between temporal patches and the top-k tokens within each state, and the ultimate temporal embeddings are derived by the expected value of these embeddings using a weighted average based on state probabilities. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that SGCMA achieves state-of-the-art performance, offering a novel approach to cross-modal alignment in time series forecasting.


SNAPE-PM: Building and Utilizing Dynamic Partner Models for Adaptive Explanation Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adapting to the addressee is crucial for successful explanations, yet poses significant challenges for dialogsystems. We adopt the approach of treating explanation generation as a non-stationary decision process, where the optimal strategy varies according to changing beliefs about the explainee and the interaction context. In this paper we address the questions of (1) how to track the interaction context and the relevant listener features in a formally defined computational partner model, and (2) how to utilize this model in the dynamically adjusted, rational decision process that determines the currently best explanation strategy. We propose a Bayesian inference-based approach to continuously update the partner model based on user feedback, and a non-stationary Markov Decision Process to adjust decision-making based on the partner model values. We evaluate an implementation of this framework with five simulated interlocutors, demonstrating its effectiveness in adapting to different partners with constant and even changing feedback behavior. The results show high adaptivity with distinct explanation strategies emerging for different partners, highlighting the potential of our approach to improve explainable AI systems and dialogsystems in general.