Markov Models
The Gaussian-Multinoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine: A Potts Model Extension of the GRBM
Kapasi, Nikhil, Whitehead, William, Theogarajan, Luke
Many real-world tasks, from associative memory to symbolic reasoning, demand discrete, structured representations that standard continuous latent models struggle to express naturally. We introduce the Gaussian-Multinoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (GM-RBM), a generative energy-based model that extends the Gaussian-Bernoulli RBM (GB-RBM) by replacing binary hidden units with $q$-state Potts variables. This modification enables a combinatorially richer latent space and supports learning over multivalued, interpretable latent concepts. We formally derive GM-RBM's energy function, learning dynamics, and conditional distributions, showing that it preserves tractable inference and training through contrastive divergence. Empirically, we demonstrate that GM-RBMs model complex multimodal distributions more effectively than binary RBMs, outperforming them on tasks involving analogical recall and structured memory. Our results highlight GM-RBMs as a scalable framework for discrete latent inference with enhanced expressiveness and interoperability.
Learning to Play Like Humans: A Framework for LLM Adaptation in Interactive Fiction Games
Interactive Fiction games (IF games) are where players interact through natural language commands. While recent advances in Artificial Intelligence agents have reignited interest in IF games as a domain for studying decision-making, existing approaches prioritize task-specific performance metrics over human-like comprehension of narrative context and gameplay logic. This work presents a cognitively inspired framework that guides Large Language Models (LLMs) to learn and play IF games systematically. Our proposed **L**earning to **P**lay **L**ike **H**umans (LPLH) framework integrates three key components: (1) structured map building to capture spatial and narrative relationships, (2) action learning to identify context-appropriate commands, and (3) feedback-driven experience analysis to refine decision-making over time. By aligning LLMs-based agents' behavior with narrative intent and commonsense constraints, LPLH moves beyond purely exploratory strategies to deliver more interpretable, human-like performance. Crucially, this approach draws on cognitive science principles to more closely simulate how human players read, interpret, and respond within narrative worlds. As a result, LPLH reframes the IF games challenge as a learning problem for LLMs-based agents, offering a new path toward robust, context-aware gameplay in complex text-based environments.
When a Reinforcement Learning Agent Encounters Unknown Unknowns
Zhu, Juntian, de Carvalho, Miguel, Yang, Zhouwang, He, Fengxiang
An AI agent might surprisingly find she has reached an unknown state which she has never been aware of -- an unknown unknown. We mathematically ground this scenario in reinforcement learning: an agent, after taking an action calculated from value functions $Q$ and $V$ defined on the {\it {aware domain}}, reaches a state out of the domain. To enable the agent to handle this scenario, we propose an {\it episodic Markov decision {process} with growing awareness} (EMDP-GA) model, taking a new {\it noninformative value expansion} (NIVE) approach to expand value functions to newly aware areas: when an agent arrives at an unknown unknown, value functions $Q$ and $V$ whereon are initialised by noninformative beliefs -- the averaged values on the aware domain. This design is out of respect for the complete absence of knowledge in the newly discovered state. The upper confidence bound momentum Q-learning is then adapted to the growing awareness for training the EMDP-GA model. We prove that (1) the regret of our approach is asymptotically consistent with the state of the art (SOTA) without exposure to unknown unknowns in an extremely uncertain environment, and (2) our computational complexity and space complexity are comparable with the SOTA -- these collectively suggest that though an unknown unknown is surprising, it will be asymptotically properly discovered with decent speed and an affordable cost.
CLT and Edgeworth Expansion for m-out-of-n Bootstrap Estimators of The Studentized Median
Banerjee, Imon, Chakrabarty, Sayak
The m-out-of-n bootstrap, originally proposed by Bickel, Gotze, and Zwet (1992), approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing m subsamples (with m much smaller than n) without replacement from an original sample of size n. It is now routinely used for robust inference with heavy-tailed data, bandwidth selection, and other large-sample applications. Despite its broad applicability across econometrics, biostatistics, and machine learning, rigorous parameter-free guarantees for the soundness of the m-out-of-n bootstrap when estimating sample quantiles have remained elusive. This paper establishes such guarantees by analyzing the estimator of sample quantiles obtained from m-out-of-n resampling of a dataset of size n. We first prove a central limit theorem for a fully data-driven version of the estimator that holds under a mild moment condition and involves no unknown nuisance parameters. We then show that the moment assumption is essentially tight by constructing a counter-example in which the CLT fails. Strengthening the assumptions slightly, we derive an Edgeworth expansion that provides exact convergence rates and, as a corollary, a Berry Esseen bound on the bootstrap approximation error. Finally, we illustrate the scope of our results by deriving parameter-free asymptotic distributions for practical statistics, including the quantiles for random walk Metropolis-Hastings and the rewards of ergodic Markov decision processes, thereby demonstrating the usefulness of our theory in modern estimation and learning tasks.
Synthesis of Communication Policies for Multi-Agent Systems Robust to Communication Restrictions
Soudijani, Saleh, Dimitrova, Rayna
We study stochastic multi-agent systems in which agents must cooperate to maximize the probability of achieving a common reach-avoid objective. In many applications, during the execution of the system, the communication between the agents can be constrained by restrictions on the bandwidth currently available for exchanging local-state information between the agents. In this paper, we propose a method for computing joint action and communication policies for the group of agents that aim to satisfy the communication restrictions as much as possible while achieving the optimal reach-avoid probability when communication is unconstrained. Our method synthesizes a pair of action and communication policies robust to restrictions on the number of agents allowed to communicate. To this end, we introduce a novel cost function that measures the amount of information exchanged beyond what the communication policy allows. We evaluate our approach experimentally on a range of benchmarks and demonstrate that it is capable of computing pairs of action and communication policies that satisfy the communication restrictions, if such exist.
Enhancing LLMs for Time Series Forecasting via Structure-Guided Cross-Modal Alignment
Sun, Siming, Zhang, Kai, Jiang, Xuejun, Meng, Wenchao, Yang, Qinmin
The emerging paradigm of leveraging pretrained large language models (LLMs) for time series forecasting has predominantly employed linguistic-temporal modality alignment strategies through token-level or layer-wise feature mapping. However, these approaches fundamentally neglect a critical insight: the core competency of LLMs resides not merely in processing localized token features but in their inherent capacity to model holistic sequence structures. This paper posits that effective cross-modal alignment necessitates structural consistency at the sequence level. We propose the Structure-Guided Cross-Modal Alignment (SGCMA), a framework that fully exploits and aligns the state-transition graph structures shared by time-series and linguistic data as sequential modalities, thereby endowing time series with language-like properties and delivering stronger generalization after modality alignment. SGCMA consists of two key components, namely Structure Alignment and Semantic Alignment. In Structure Alignment, a state transition matrix is learned from text data through Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and a shallow transformer-based Maximum Entropy Markov Model (MEMM) receives the hot-start transition matrix and annotates each temporal patch into state probability, ensuring that the temporal representation sequence inherits language-like sequential dynamics. In Semantic Alignment, cross-attention is applied between temporal patches and the top-k tokens within each state, and the ultimate temporal embeddings are derived by the expected value of these embeddings using a weighted average based on state probabilities. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that SGCMA achieves state-of-the-art performance, offering a novel approach to cross-modal alignment in time series forecasting.
SNAPE-PM: Building and Utilizing Dynamic Partner Models for Adaptive Explanation Generation
Robrecht, Amelie S., Kowalski, Christoph R., Kopp, Stefan
Adapting to the addressee is crucial for successful explanations, yet poses significant challenges for dialogsystems. We adopt the approach of treating explanation generation as a non-stationary decision process, where the optimal strategy varies according to changing beliefs about the explainee and the interaction context. In this paper we address the questions of (1) how to track the interaction context and the relevant listener features in a formally defined computational partner model, and (2) how to utilize this model in the dynamically adjusted, rational decision process that determines the currently best explanation strategy. We propose a Bayesian inference-based approach to continuously update the partner model based on user feedback, and a non-stationary Markov Decision Process to adjust decision-making based on the partner model values. We evaluate an implementation of this framework with five simulated interlocutors, demonstrating its effectiveness in adapting to different partners with constant and even changing feedback behavior. The results show high adaptivity with distinct explanation strategies emerging for different partners, highlighting the potential of our approach to improve explainable AI systems and dialogsystems in general.
Self-Generated In-Context Examples Improve LLM Agents for Sequential Decision-Making Tasks
Sarukkai, Vishnu, Xie, Zhiqiang, Fatahalian, Kayvon
Improving Large Language Model (LLM) agents for sequential decision-making tasks typically requires extensive task-specific knowledge engineering--custom prompts, curated examples, and specialized observation/action spaces. We investigate a different approach where agents automatically improve by learning from their own successful experiences without human intervention. Our method constructs and refines a database of self-generated trajectories that serve as in-context examples for future tasks. Even naive accumulation of successful trajectories yields substantial performance gains across three diverse benchmarks: ALFWorld (73% to 89%), Wordcraft (55% to 64%), and InterCode-SQL (75% to 79%). These improvements exceed those achieved by upgrading from gpt-4o-mini to gpt-4o and match the performance of allowing multiple attempts per task. We further enhance this approach with two innovations: database-level curation using population-based training to propagate high-performing example collections, and exemplar-level curation that selectively retains trajectories based on their empirical utility as in-context examples. With these enhancements, our method achieves 93% success on ALFWorld--surpassing approaches that use more powerful LLMs and hand-crafted components. Our trajectory bootstrapping technique demonstrates that agents can autonomously improve through experience, offering a scalable alternative to labor-intensive knowledge engineering.
Toward Evaluative Thinking: Meta Policy Optimization with Evolving Reward Models
Kim, Zae Myung, Park, Chanwoo, Raheja, Vipul, Kim, Suin, Kang, Dongyeop
Reward-based alignment methods for large language models (LLMs) face two key limitations: vulnerability to reward hacking, where models exploit flaws in the reward signal; and reliance on brittle, labor-intensive prompt engineering when LLMs are used as reward models. We introduce Meta Policy Optimization (MPO), a framework that addresses these challenges by integrating a meta-reward model that dynamically refines the reward model's prompt throughout training. In MPO, the meta-reward model monitors the evolving training context and continuously adjusts the reward model's prompt to maintain high alignment, providing an adaptive reward signal that resists exploitation by the policy. This meta-learning approach promotes a more stable policy optimization, and greatly reduces the need for manual reward prompt design. It yields performance on par with or better than models guided by extensively hand-crafted reward prompts. Furthermore, we show that MPO maintains its effectiveness across diverse tasks, from essay writing to mathematical reasoning, without requiring specialized reward designs. Beyond standard RLAIF, MPO's meta-learning formulation is readily extensible to higher-level alignment frameworks. Overall, this method addresses theoretical and practical challenges in reward-based RL alignment for LLMs, paving the way for more robust and adaptable alignment strategies. The code and data can be accessed at: https://github.com/minnesotanlp/mpo
Tree-based Focused Web Crawling with Reinforcement Learning
Kontogiannis, Andreas, Kelesis, Dimitrios, Pollatos, Vasilis, Giannakopoulos, George, Paliouras, Georgios
A focused crawler aims at discovering as many web pages and web sites relevant to a target topic as possible, while avoiding irrelevant ones. Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been a promising direction for optimizing focused crawling, because RL can naturally optimize the long-term profit of discovering relevant web locations within the context of a reward. In this paper, we propose TRES, a novel RL-empowered framework for focused crawling that aims at maximizing both the number of relevant web pages (aka \textit{harvest rate}) and the number of relevant web sites (\textit{domains}). We model the focused crawling problem as a novel Markov Decision Process (MDP), which the RL agent aims to solve by determining an optimal crawling strategy. To overcome the computational infeasibility of exhaustively searching for the best action at each time step, we propose Tree-Frontier, a provably efficient tree-based sampling algorithm that adaptively discretizes the large state and action spaces and evaluates only a few representative actions. Experimentally, utilizing online real-world data, we show that TRES significantly outperforms and Pareto-dominates state-of-the-art methods in terms of harvest rate and the number of retrieved relevant domains, while it provably reduces by orders of magnitude the number of URLs needed to be evaluated at each crawling step.