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 Markov Models


Calibration of Shared Equilibria in General Sum Partially Observable Markov Games

Neural Information Processing Systems

Training multi-agent systems (MAS) to achieve realistic equilibria gives us a useful tool to understand and model real-world systems. We consider a general sum partially observable Markov game where agents of different types share a single policy network, conditioned on agent-specific information. This paper aims at i) formally understanding equilibria reached by such agents, and ii) matching emergent phenomena of such equilibria to real-world targets. Parameter sharing with decentralized execution has been introduced as an efficient way to train multiple agents using a single policy network. However, the nature of resulting equilibria reached by such agents has not been yet studied: we introduce the novel concept of Shared equilibrium as a symmetric pure Nash equilibrium of a certain Functional Form Game (FFG) and prove convergence to the latter for a certain class of games using self-play.


Flipping-based Policy for Chance-Constrained Markov Decision Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Safe reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach for many real-world decision-making problems where ensuring safety is a critical necessity. In safe RL research, while expected cumulative safety constraints (ECSCs) are typically the first choices, chance constraints are often more pragmatic for incorporating safety under uncertainties. This paper proposes a \textit{flipping-based policy} for Chance-Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CCMDPs). The flipping-based policy selects the next action by tossing a potentially distorted coin between two action candidates. The probability of the flip and the two action candidates vary depending on the state.


The Evolution of Statistical Induction Heads: In-Context Learning Markov Chains

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large language models have the ability to generate text that mimics patterns in their inputs. We introduce a simple Markov Chain sequence modeling task in order to study how this in-context learning capability emerges. In our setting, each example is sampled from a Markov chain drawn from a prior distribution over Markov chains. Transformers trained on this task form \emph{statistical induction heads} which compute accurate next-token probabilities given the bigram statistics of the context. During the course of training, models pass through multiple phases: after an initial stage in which predictions are uniform, they learn to sub-optimally predict using in-context single-token statistics (unigrams); then, there is a rapid phase transition to the correct in-context bigram solution.


Provable Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning with Privileged Information

Neural Information Processing Systems

Partial observability of the underlying states generally presents significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In practice, certain privileged information, e.g., the access to states from simulators, has been exploited in training and achieved prominent empirical successes. To better understand the benefits of privileged information, we revisit and examine several simple and practically used paradigms in this setting, with both computation and sample efficiency analyses. Specifically, we first formalize the empirical paradigm of expert distillation (also known as teacher-student learning), demonstrating its pitfall in finding near-optimal policies. We then identify a condition of the partially observable environment, the deterministic filter condition, under which expert distillation achieves sample and computational complexities that are both polynomial.


Periodic agent-state based Q-learning for POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

The standard approach for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is to convert them to a fully observed belief-state MDP. However, the belief state depends on the system model and is therefore not viable in reinforcement learning (RL) settings. A widely used alternative is to use an agent state, which is a model-free, recursively updateable function of the observation history. Examples include frame stacking and recurrent neural networks. Since the agent state is model-free, it is used to adapt standard RL algorithms to POMDPs. However, standard RL algorithms like Q-learning learn a stationary policy.


Fast Approximate Dynamic Programming for Infinite-Horizon Markov Decision Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this study, we consider the infinite-horizon, discounted cost, optimal control of stochastic nonlinear systems with separable cost and constraints in the state and input variables. Using the linear-time Legendre transform, we propose a novel numerical scheme for implementation of the corresponding value iteration (VI) algorithm in the conjugate domain. Detailed analyses of the convergence, time complexity, and error of the proposed algorithm are provided. In particular, with a discretization of size X and U for the state and input spaces, respectively, the proposed approach reduces the time complexity of each iteration in the VI algorithm from O(XU) to O(X U), by replacing the minimization operation in the primal domain with a simple addition in the conjugate domain.


Belief-State Query Policies for User-Aligned POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Planning in real-world settings often entails addressing partial observability while aligning with users' requirements. We present a novel framework for expressing users' constraints and preferences about agent behavior in a partially observable setting using parameterized belief-state query (BSQ) policies in the setting of goal-oriented partially observable Markov decision processes (gPOMDPs). We present the first formal analysis of such constraints and prove that while the expected cost function of a parameterized BSQ policy w.r.t its parameters is not convex, it is piecewise constant and yields an implicit discrete parameter search space that is finite for finite horizons. This theoretical result leads to novel algorithms that optimize gPOMDP agent behavior with guaranteed user alignment. Analysis proves that our algorithms converge to the optimal user-aligned behavior in the limit.


Efficient Recurrent Off-Policy RL Requires a Context-Encoder-Specific Learning Rate

Neural Information Processing Systems

Real-world decision-making tasks are usually partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), where the state is not fully observable. Recent progress has demonstrated that recurrent reinforcement learning (RL), which consists of a context encoder based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for unobservable state prediction and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) policy for decision making, can mitigate partial observability and serve as a robust baseline for POMDP tasks. However, prior recurrent RL algorithms have faced issues with training instability. In this paper, we find that this instability stems from the autoregressive nature of RNNs, which causes even small changes in RNN parameters to produce large output variations over long trajectories. Therefore, we propose Recurrent Off-policy RL with Context-Encoder-Specific Learning Rate (RESeL) to tackle this issue.


Rank-One Modified Value Iteration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm for solving planning and learning problems of Markov decision processes. The proposed algorithm follows a policy iteration-type update by using a rank-one approximation of the transition probability matrix in the policy evaluation step. This rank-one approximation is closely related to the stationary distribution of the corresponding transition probability matrix, which is approximated using the power method. We provide theoretical guarantees for the convergence of the proposed algorithm to optimal (action-)value function with the same rate and computational complexity as the value iteration algorithm in the planning problem and as the Q-learning algorithm in the learning problem. Through our extensive numerical simulations, however, we show that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms first-order algorithms and their accelerated versions for both planning and learning problems.


Temperature is All You Need for Generalization in Langevin Dynamics and other Markov Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We analyze the generalization gap (gap between the training and test errors) when training a potentially over-parametrized model using a Markovian stochastic training algorithm, initialized from some distribution $θ_0 \sim p_0$. We focus on Langevin dynamics with a positive temperature $β^{-1}$, i.e. gradient descent on a training loss $L$ with infinitesimal step size, perturbed with $β^{-1}$-variances Gaussian noise, and lightly regularized or bounded. There, we bound the generalization gap, at any time during training, by $\sqrt{(β\mathbb{E} L (θ_0) + \log(1/δ))/N}$ with probability $1-δ$ over the dataset, where $N$ is the sample size, and $\mathbb{E} L (θ_0) =O(1)$ with standard initialization scaling. In contrast to previous guarantees, we have no dependence on either training time or reliance on mixing, nor a dependence on dimensionality, gradient norms, or any other properties of the loss or model. This guarantee follows from a general analysis of any Markov process-based training that has a Gibbs-style stationary distribution. The proof is surprisingly simple, once we observe that the marginal distribution divergence from initialization remains bounded, as implied by a generalized second law of thermodynamics.