Markov Models
SPA-RL: Reinforcing LLM Agents via Stepwise Progress Attribution
Wang, Hanlin, Leong, Chak Tou, Wang, Jiashuo, Wang, Jian, Li, Wenjie
Reinforcement learning (RL) holds significant promise for training LLM agents to handle complex, goal-oriented tasks that require multi-step interactions with external environments. However, a critical challenge when applying RL to these agentic tasks arises from delayed rewards: feedback signals are typically available only after the entire task is completed. This makes it non-trivial to assign delayed rewards to earlier actions, providing insufficient guidance regarding environmental constraints and hindering agent training. In this work, we draw on the insight that the ultimate completion of a task emerges from the cumulative progress an agent makes across individual steps. We propose Stepwise Progress Attribution (SPA), a general reward redistribution framework that decomposes the final reward into stepwise contributions, each reflecting its incremental progress toward overall task completion. To achieve this, we train a progress estimator that accumulates stepwise contributions over a trajectory to match the task completion. During policy optimization, we combine the estimated per-step contribution with a grounding signal for actions executed in the environment as the fine-grained, intermediate reward for effective agent training. Extensive experiments on common agent benchmarks (including Webshop, ALFWorld, and VirtualHome) demonstrate that SPA consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art method in both success rate (+2.5\% on average) and grounding accuracy (+1.9\% on average). Further analyses demonstrate that our method remarkably provides more effective intermediate rewards for RL training. Our code is available at https://github.com/WangHanLinHenry/SPA-RL-Agent.
An Analysis of Elo Rating Systems via Markov Chains
We present a theoretical analysis of the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking skills of players in an online setting. In particular, we study Elo under the Bradley-Terry-Luce model and, using techniques from Markov chain theory, show that Elo learns the model parameters at a rate competitive with the state-of-the-art. We apply our results to the problem of efficient tournament design and discuss a connection with the fastest-mixing Markov chain problem.
Bisimulation Metrics are Optimal Transport Distances, and Can be Computed Efficiently
We propose a new framework for formulating optimal transport distances between Markov chains. Previously known formulations studied couplings between the entire joint distribution induced by the chains, and derived solutions via a reduction to dynamic programming (DP) in an appropriately defined Markov decision process. This formulation has, however, not led to particularly efficient algorithms so far, since computing the associated DP operators requires fully solving a static optimal transport problem, and these operators need to be applied numerous times during the overall optimization process. In this work, we develop an alternative perspective by considering couplings between a flattened'' version of the joint distributions that we call discounted occupancy couplings, and show that calculating optimal transport distances in the full space of joint distributions can be equivalently formulated as solving a linear program (LP) in this reduced space. This LP formulation formulation allows us to port several algorithmic ideas from other areas of optimal transport theory.
Inference of Neural Dynamics Using Switching Recurrent Neural Networks
Neural population activity often exhibits distinct dynamical features across time, which may correspond to distinct internal processes or behavior. Linear methods and variations thereof, such as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS), are often employed to identify discrete states with evolving neural dynamics. However, these techniques may not be able to capture the underlying nonlinear dynamics associated with neural propagation. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are commonly used to model neural dynamics thanks to their nonlinear characteristics. In our work, we develop Switching Recurrent Neural Networks (SRNN), RNNs with weights that switch across time, to reconstruct switching dynamics of neural time-series data.
Robust Anytime Learning of Markov Decision Processes
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in data-driven applications, deriving precise probabilities from (limited) data introduces statistical errors that may lead to unexpected or undesirable outcomes.Uncertain MDPs (uMDPs) do not require precise probabilities but instead use so-called uncertainty sets in the transitions, accounting for such limited data.Tools from the formal verification community efficiently compute robust policies that provably adhere to formal specifications, like safety constraints, under the worst-case instance in the uncertainty set. We continuously learn the transition probabilities of an MDP in a robust anytime-learning approach that combines a dedicated Bayesian inference scheme with the computation of robust policies. In particular, our method (1) approximates probabilities as intervals, (2) adapts to new data that may be inconsistent with an intermediate model, and (3) may be stopped at any time to compute a robust policy on the uMDP that faithfully captures the data so far. Furthermore, our method is capable of adapting to changes in the environment.
Achieving Constant Regret in Linear Markov Decision Processes
We study the constant regret guarantees in reinforcement learning (RL). Our objective is to design an algorithm that incurs only finite regret over infinite episodes with high probability. We introduce an algorithm, Cert-LSVI-UCB, for misspecified linear Markov decision processes (MDPs) where both the transition kernel and the reward function can be approximated by some linear function up to misspecification level \zeta . At the core of Cert-LSVI-UCB is an innovative certified estimator, which facilitates a fine-grained concentration analysis for multi-phase value-targeted regression, enabling us to establish an instance-dependent regret bound that is constant w.r.t. the number of episodes. Here d is the dimension of the feature space and H is the horizon.
Adaptable Logical Control for Large Language Models
Despite the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) on various tasks following human instructions, controlling model generation to follow strict constraints at inference time poses a persistent challenge. In this paper, we introduce Ctrl-G, a neuro-symbolic framework that enables tractable and adaptable control of LLM generation to follow logical constraints reliably. Ctrl-G combines any production-ready LLM with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), guiding LLM outputs to adhere to logical constraints represented as deterministic finite automata. We show that Ctrl-G, when a TULU2-7B model is coupled with a 2B-parameter HMM, outperforms GPT4 in text editing: on the task of generating text insertions/continuations following logical constraints, our approach achieves over 30% higher satisfaction rate in human evaluation. When applied to medium-size language models (e.g., GPT2-large), Ctrl-G also beats its counterparts on standard benchmarks by large margins.
Efficient and Sharp Off-Policy Evaluation in Robust Markov Decision Processes
We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is an important problem when there is the possibility of a shift between historical and future environments, \emph{e.g.} due to unmeasured confounding, distributional shift, or an adversarial environment. We propose a perturbation model that allows changes in the transition kernel densities up to a given multiplicative factor or its reciprocal, extending the classic marginal sensitivity model (MSM) for single time-step decision-making to infinite-horizon RL. We characterize the sharp bounds on policy value under this model -- \emph{i.e.}, the tightest possible bounds based on transition observations from the original MDP -- and we study the estimation of these bounds from such transition observations. We develop an estimator with several important guarantees: it is semiparametrically efficient, and remains so even when certain necessary nuisance functions, such as worst-case Q-functions, are estimated at slow, nonparametric rates.
Diffusion Spectral Representation for Reinforcement Learning
Diffusion-based models have achieved notable empirical successes in reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex distributions. Despite existing methods being promising, the key challenge of extending existing methods for broader real-world applications lies in the computational cost at inference time, i.e., sampling from a diffusion model is considerably slow as it often requires tens to hundreds of iterations to generate even one sample. To circumvent this issue, we propose to leverage the flexibility of diffusion models for RL from a representation learning perspective. In particular, by exploiting the connection between diffusion models and energy-based models, we develop Diffusion Spectral Representation (Diff-SR), a coherent algorithm framework that enables extracting sufficient representations for value functions in Markov decision processes (MDP) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). We further demonstrate how Diff-SR facilitates efficient policy optimization and practical algorithms while explicitly bypassing the difficulty and inference cost of sampling from the diffusion model.
Finding good policies in average-reward Markov Decision Processes without prior knowledge
We revisit the identification of an \varepsilon -optimal policy in average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDP). In such MDPs, two measures of complexity have appeared in the literature: the diameter, D, and the optimal bias span, H, which satisfy H\leq D . Prior work have studied the complexity of \varepsilon -optimal policy identification only when a generative model is available. In this case, it is known that there exists an MDP with D \simeq H for which the sample complexity to output an \varepsilon -optimal policy is \Omega(SAD/\varepsilon 2) where S and A are the sizes of the state and action spaces. Recently, an algorithm with a sample complexity of order SAH/\varepsilon 2 has been proposed, but it requires the knowledge of H .