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 Markov Models


Bounds on the Excess Minimum Risk via Generalized Information Divergence Measures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given finite-dimensional random vectors $Y$, $X$, and $Z$ that form a Markov chain in that order (i.e., $Y \to X \to Z$), we derive upper bounds on the excess minimum risk using generalized information divergence measures. Here, $Y$ is a target vector to be estimated from an observed feature vector $X$ or its stochastically degraded version $Z$. The excess minimum risk is defined as the difference between the minimum expected loss in estimating $Y$ from $X$ and from $Z$. We present a family of bounds that generalize the mutual information based bound of Gyรถrfi et al. (2023), using the Rรฉnyi and $ฮฑ$-Jensen-Shannon divergences, as well as Sibson's mutual information. Our bounds are similar to those developed by Modak et al. (2021) and Aminian et al. (2024) for the generalization error of learning algorithms. However, unlike these works, our bounds do not require the sub-Gaussian parameter to be constant and therefore apply to a broader class of joint distributions over $Y$, $X$, and $Z$. We also provide numerical examples under both constant and non-constant sub-Gaussianity assumptions, illustrating that our generalized divergence based bounds can be tighter than the one based on mutual information for certain regimes of the parameter $ฮฑ$.


LifelongAgentBench: Evaluating LLM Agents as Lifelong Learners

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lifelong learning is essential for intelligent agents operating in dynamic environments. Current large language model (LLM)-based agents, however, remain stateless and unable to accumulate or transfer knowledge over time. Existing benchmarks treat agents as static systems and fail to evaluate lifelong learning capabilities. We present LifelongAgentBench, the first unified benchmark designed to systematically assess the lifelong learning ability of LLM agents. It provides skill-grounded, interdependent tasks across three interactive environments, Database, Operating System, and Knowledge Graph, with automatic label verification, reproducibility, and modular extensibility. Extensive experiments reveal that conventional experience replay has limited effectiveness for LLM agents due to irrelevant information and context length constraints. We further introduce a group self-consistency mechanism that significantly improves lifelong learning performance. We hope LifelongAgentBench will advance the development of adaptive, memory-capable LLM agents.


Reviews: Maximum Expected Hitting Cost of a Markov Decision Process and Informativeness of Rewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper introduces a new complexity measure for MDPs called maximum expected hitting cost. Unlike the diameter measure is only a function of the transition dynamics, this new measure takes into account the reward dynamics as well. The authors show theoretically that under the same assumptions as previous authors who introduced diameter, this new measure is a tighter upper bound. Furthermore, they show the usefulness of this measure by showing that it can be used to better understand the informativeness of rewards when using potential based reward shaping and they prove theoretically that in a large class of MDPs potential based reward shaping is bounded by a multiplicative factor of 2 on their maximum expected hitting costs. I enjoyed reading this paper. I appreciated the structure that the authors used in this paper which first introduced all the necessary prior work (related to diameter) cosily but thoroughly enough before introducing their contributions.


Reviews: Maximum Expected Hitting Cost of a Markov Decision Process and Informativeness of Rewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

The paper introduces a new complexity measure for MDPs, the expected hitting costs. In contrast to former complexity measures, the hitting costs also depend on the reward of the MDP and can provide a tighter bound for UCRL2. The theory also provides an intersting connection between reward shapeing and the complexity of a MDP. All reviewers appreciated the strong theoretical contribution of the paper which improves our theoretical understanding of the complexity of MDPs. The reviewers also liked that the paper is well written and establishes connections to reward shaping, a method that has also a highly practical value. All reviewers recommend acceptance and I agree with their assessment.


Synthesis of MCMC and Belief Propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from exponentially slow mixing. In contrast, BP is a deterministic method, which is typically fast, empirically very successful, however in general lacking control of accuracy over loopy graphs. In this paper, we introduce MCMC algorithms correcting the approximation error of BP, i.e., we provide a way to compensate for BP errors via a consecutive BP-aware MCMC. Our framework is based on the Loop Calculus approach which allows to express the BP error as a sum of weighted generalized loops. Although the full series is computationally intractable, it is known that a truncated series, summing up all 2-regular loops, is computable in polynomial-time for planar pair-wise binary GMs and it also provides a highly accurate approximation empirically. Motivated by this, we first propose a polynomial-time approximation MCMC scheme for the truncated series of general (non-planar) pair-wise binary models. Our main idea here is to use the Worm algorithm, known to provide fast mixing in other (related) problems, and then design an appropriate rejection scheme to sample 2-regular loops.


Review for NeurIPS paper: Simultaneously Learning Stochastic and Adversarial Episodic MDPs with Known Transition

Neural Information Processing Systems

Weaknesses: Soundness of the claims: While the general ideas seem somewhat clear, most of the proofs read more like sketches and some of the claims need to be verified by hand. For example in the proof of Lemma 9 the authors do not provide a derivation for the each of the elements of the Hessian but merely state that the result follows from a direct computation (which seems to be left as an exercise to the reader). Other examples where more details would not hurt are the proof of Lemma 13, where the authors bound \ q_t - \tilde \q_t\ in a self-bounding way, to achieve the upper bound but no mention of this is given other than the final result and the proof of Lemma 27, where derivations on lines 720-722 were not entirely straightforward. Overall the Appendix can benefit from more details in the proofs. Significance and novelty of contribution: The core ideas of this work are not novel.


Review for NeurIPS paper: Simultaneously Learning Stochastic and Adversarial Episodic MDPs with Known Transition

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper was well-received by the reviewers and the author response was effective in addressing the concerns raised in the initial reviews. As a result, several reviewers updated their scores. The paper is clearly suitable for publication without significant changes.


Finite-Sample Convergence Bounds for Trust Region Policy Optimization in Mean-Field Games

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce Mean-Field Trust Region Policy Optimization (MF-TRPO), a novel algorithm designed to compute approximate Nash equilibria for ergodic Mean-Field Games (MFG) in finite state-action spaces. Building on the well-established performance of TRPO in the reinforcement learning (RL) setting, we extend its methodology to the MFG framework, leveraging its stability and robustness in policy optimization. Under standard assumptions in the MFG literature, we provide a rigorous analysis of MF-TRPO, establishing theoretical guarantees on its convergence. Our results cover both the exact formulation of the algorithm and its sample-based counterpart, where we derive high-probability guarantees and finite sample complexity. This work advances MFG optimization by bridging RL techniques with mean-field decision-making, offering a theoretically grounded approach to solving complex multi-agent problems.


A False Discovery Rate Control Method Using a Fully Connected Hidden Markov Random Field for Neuroimaging Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

False discovery rate (FDR) control methods are essential for voxel-wise multiple testing in neuroimaging data analysis, where hundreds of thousands or even millions of tests are conducted to detect brain regions associated with disease-related changes. Classical FDR control methods (e.g., BH, q-value, and LocalFDR) assume independence among tests and often lead to high false non-discovery rates (FNR). Although various spatial FDR control methods have been developed to improve power, they still fall short of jointly addressing three major challenges in neuroimaging applications: capturing complex spatial dependencies, maintaining low variability in both false discovery proportion (FDP) and false non-discovery proportion (FNP) across replications, and achieving computational scalability for high-resolution data. To address these challenges, we propose fcHMRF-LIS, a powerful, stable, and scalable spatial FDR control method for voxel-wise multiple testing. It integrates the local index of significance (LIS)-based testing procedure with a novel fully connected hidden Markov random field (fcHMRF) designed to model complex spatial structures using a parsimonious parameterization. We develop an efficient expectation-maximization algorithm incorporating mean-field approximation, the Conditional Random Fields as Recurrent Neural Networks (CRF-RNN) technique, and permutohedral lattice filtering, reducing the time complexity from quadratic to linear in the number of tests. Extensive simulations demonstrate that fcHMRF-LIS achieves accurate FDR control, lower FNR, reduced variability in FDP and FNP, and a higher number of true positives compared to existing methods. Applied to an FDG-PET dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, fcHMRF-LIS identifies neurobiologically relevant brain regions and offers notable advantages in computational efficiency.


Signal attenuation enables scalable decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning over networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods typically require that agents enjoy global state observability, preventing development of decentralized algorithms and limiting scalability. Recent work has shown that, under assumptions on decaying inter-agent influence, global observability can be replaced by local neighborhood observability at each agent, enabling decentralization and scalability. Real-world applications enjoying such decay properties remain underexplored, however, despite the fact that signal power decay, or signal attenuation, due to path loss is an intrinsic feature of many problems in wireless communications and radar networks. In this paper, we show that signal attenuation enables decentralization in MARL by considering the illustrative special case of performing power allocation for target detection in a radar network. To achieve this, we propose two new constrained multi-agent Markov decision process formulations of this power allocation problem, derive local neighborhood approximations for global value function and policy gradient estimates and establish corresponding error bounds, and develop decentralized saddle point policy gradient algorithms for solving the proposed problems. Our approach, though oriented towards the specific radar network problem we consider, provides a useful model for extensions to additional problems in wireless communications and radar networks.