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 Markov Models


Limitations of refinement methods for weak to strong generalization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Standard techniques for aligning large language models (LLMs) utilize human-produced data, which could limit the capability of any aligned LLM to human level. Label refinement and weak training have emerged as promising strategies to address this superalignment problem. In this work, we adopt probabilistic assumptions commonly used to study label refinement and analyze whether refinement can be outperformed by alternative approaches, including computationally intractable oracle methods. We show that both weak training and label refinement suffer from irreducible error, leaving a performance gap between label refinement and the oracle. These results motivate future research into developing alternative methods for weak to strong generalization that synthesize the practicality of label refinement or weak training and the optimality of the oracle procedure.


Efficient Computation of Blackwell Optimal Policies using Rational Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov Decision Problems (MDPs) provide a founda-tional framework for modelling sequential decision-making across diverse domains, guided by optimality criteria such as discounted and average rewards. However, these criteria have inherent limitations: discounted optimality may overly prioritise short-term rewards, while average optimality relies on strong structural assumptions. Blackwell optimality addresses these challenges, offering a robust and comprehensive criterion that ensures optimality under both discounted and average reward frameworks. Despite its theoretical appeal, existing algorithms for computing Blackwell Optimal (BO) policies are computationally expensive or hard to implement. In this paper we describe procedures for computing BO policies using an ordering of rational functions in the vicinity of 1 . We adapt state-of-the-art algorithms for deterministic and general MDPs, replacing numerical evaluations with symbolic operations on rational functions to derive bounds independent of bit complexity. For deterministic MDPs, we give the first strongly polynomial-time algorithms for computing BO policies, and for general MDPs we obtain the first subexponential-time algorithm. We further generalise several policy iteration algorithms, extending the best known upper bounds from the discounted to the Blackwell criterion.


Arnold: a generalist muscle transformer policy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Controlling high-dimensional and nonlinear musculoskeletal models of the human body is a foundational scientific challenge. Recent machine learning breakthroughs have heralded policies that master individual skills like reaching, object manipulation and locomotion in musculoskeletal systems with many degrees of freedom. However, these agents are merely "specialists", achieving high performance for a single skill. In this work, we develop Arnold, a generalist policy that masters multiple tasks and embodiments. Arnold combines behavior cloning and fine-tuning with PPO to achieve expert or super-expert performance in 14 challenging control tasks from dexterous object manipulation to locomotion. A key innovation is Arnold's sensorimotor vocabulary, a compositional representation of the semantics of heterogeneous sensory modalities, objectives, and actuators. Arnold leverages this vocabulary via a transformer architecture to deal with the variable observation and action spaces of each task. This framework supports efficient multi-task, multi-embodiment learning and facilitates rapid adaptation to novel tasks. Finally, we analyze Arnold to provide insights into biological motor control, corroborating recent findings on the limited transferability of muscle synergies across tasks.


DSADF: Thinking Fast and Slow for Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are effective in well-defined environments, they often struggle to generalize their learned policies to dynamic settings due to their reliance on trial-and-error interactions. Recent work has explored applying Large Language Models (LLMs) or Vision Language Models (VLMs) to boost the generalization of RL agents through policy optimization guidance or prior knowledge. However, these approaches often lack seamless coordination between the RL agent and the foundation model, leading to unreasonable decision-making in unfamiliar environments and efficiency bottlenecks. Making full use of the inferential capabilities of foundation models and the rapid response capabilities of RL agents and enhancing the interaction between the two to form a dual system is still a lingering scientific question. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from Kahneman's theory of fast thinking (System 1) and slow thinking (System 2), demonstrating that balancing intuition and deep reasoning can achieve nimble decision-making in a complex world. In this study, we propose a Dual-System Adaptive Decision Framework (DSADF), integrating two complementary modules: System 1, comprising an RL agent and a memory space for fast and intuitive decision making, and System 2, driven by a VLM for deep and analytical reasoning. DSADF facilitates efficient and adaptive decision-making by combining the strengths of both systems. The empirical study in the video game environment: Crafter and Housekeep demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed method, showing significant improvements in decision abilities for both unseen and known tasks.


CLaP -- State Detection from Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ever-growing amount of sensor data from machines, smart devices, and the environment leads to an abundance of high-resolution, unannotated time series (TS). These recordings encode recognizable properties of latent states and transitions from physical phenomena that can be modelled as abstract processes. The unsupervised localization and identification of these states and their transitions is the task of time series state detection (TSSD). Current TSSD algorithms employ classical unsupervised learning techniques, to infer state membership directly from feature space. This limits their predictive power, compared to supervised learning methods, which can exploit additional label information. We introduce CLaP, a new, highly accurate and efficient algorithm for TSSD. It leverages the predictive power of time series classification for TSSD in an unsupervised setting by applying novel self-supervision techniques to detect whether data segments emerge from the same state. To this end, CLaP cross-validates a classifier with segment-labelled subsequences to quantify confusion between segments. It merges labels from segments with high confusion, representing the same latent state, if this leads to an increase in overall classification quality. We conducted an experimental evaluation using 405 TS from five benchmarks and found CLaP to be significantly more precise in detecting states than six state-of-the-art competitors. It achieves the best accuracy-runtime tradeoff and is scalable to large TS. We provide a Python implementation of CLaP, which can be deployed in TS analysis workflows.


Solving Constrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems with Scalarisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Constrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (CSSPs) model problems with probabilistic effects, where a primary cost is min-imised subject to constraints over secondary costs, e.g., minimise time subject to monetary budget. Current heuristic search algorithms for CSSPs solve a sequence of increasingly larger CSSPs as linear programs until an optimal solution for the original CSSP is found. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm CARL, which solves a series of unconstrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs) with efficient heuristic search algorithms. These SSP subproblems are constructed with scalarisations that project the CSSP's vector of primary and secondary costs onto a scalar cost. CARL finds a maximising scalarisation using an optimisation algorithm similar to the subgradient method which, together with the solution to its associated SSP, yields a set of policies that are combined into an optimal policy for the CSSP . Our experiments show that CARL solves 50% more problems than the state-of-the-art on existing benchmarks.


Solving the Min-Max Multiple Traveling Salesmen Problem via Learning-Based Path Generation and Optimal Splitting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study addresses the Min-Max Multiple Traveling Salesmen Problem ($m^3$-TSP), which aims to coordinate tours for multiple salesmen such that the length of the longest tour is minimized. Due to its NP-hard nature, exact solvers become impractical under the assumption that $P \ne NP$. As a result, learning-based approaches have gained traction for their ability to rapidly generate high-quality approximate solutions. Among these, two-stage methods combine learning-based components with classical solvers, simplifying the learning objective. However, this decoupling often disrupts consistent optimization, potentially degrading solution quality. To address this issue, we propose a novel two-stage framework named \textbf{Generate-and-Split} (GaS), which integrates reinforcement learning (RL) with an optimal splitting algorithm in a joint training process. The splitting algorithm offers near-linear scalability with respect to the number of cities and guarantees optimal splitting in Euclidean space for any given path. To facilitate the joint optimization of the RL component with the algorithm, we adopt an LSTM-enhanced model architecture to address partial observability. Extensive experiments show that the proposed GaS framework significantly outperforms existing learning-based approaches in both solution quality and transferability.


LaGarNet: Goal-Conditioned Recurrent State-Space Models for Pick-and-Place Garment Flattening

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel goal-conditioned recurrent state space (GC-RSSM) model capable of learning latent dynamics of pick-and-place garment manipulation. Our proposed method LaGarNet matches the state-of-the-art performance of mesh-based methods, marking the first successful application of state-space models on complex garments. LaGarNet trains on a coverage-alignment reward and a dataset collected through a general procedure supported by a random policy and a diffusion policy learned from few human demonstrations; it substantially reduces the inductive biases introduced in the previous similar methods. We demonstrate that a single-policy LaGarNet achieves flattening on four different types of garments in both real-world and simulation settings.


Deep Learning for Markov Chains: Lyapunov Functions, Poisson's Equation, and Stationary Distributions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lyapunov functions are fundamental to establishing the stability of Markovian models, yet their construction typically demands substantial creativity and analytical effort. In this paper, we show that deep learning can automate this process by training neural networks to satisfy integral equations derived from first-transition analysis. Beyond stability analysis, our approach can be adapted to solve Poisson's equation and estimate stationary distributions. While neural networks are inherently function approximators on compact domains, it turns out that our approach remains effective when applied to Markov chains on non-compact state spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology through several examples from queueing theory and beyond.


From Classical Probabilistic Latent Variable Models to Modern Generative AI: A Unified Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

From large language models to multi-modal agents, Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) now underpins state-of-the-art systems. Despite their varied architectures, many share a common foundation in probabilistic latent variable models (PLVMs), where hidden variables explain observed data for density estimation, latent reasoning, and structured inference. This paper presents a unified perspective by framing both classical and modern generative methods within the PLVM paradigm. We trace the progression from classical flat models such as probabilistic PCA, Gaussian mixture models, latent class analysis, item response theory, and latent Dirichlet allocation, through their sequential extensions including Hidden Markov Models, Gaussian HMMs, and Linear Dynamical Systems, to contemporary deep architectures: Variational Autoencoders as Deep PLVMs, Normalizing Flows as Tractable PLVMs, Diffusion Models as Sequential PLVMs, Autoregressive Models as Explicit Generative Models, and Generative Adversarial Networks as Implicit PLVMs. Viewing these architectures under a common probabilistic taxonomy reveals shared principles, distinct inference strategies, and the representational trade-offs that shape their strengths. We offer a conceptual roadmap that consolidates generative AI's theoretical foundations, clarifies methodological lineages, and guides future innovation by grounding emerging architectures in their probabilistic heritage.