Markov Models
DSADF: Thinking Fast and Slow for Decision Making
Dou, Zhihao, Cui, Dongfei, Yan, Jun, Wang, Weida, Chen, Benteng, Wang, Haoming, Xie, Zeke, Zhang, Shufei
Although Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are effective in well-defined environments, they often struggle to generalize their learned policies to dynamic settings due to their reliance on trial-and-error interactions. Recent work has explored applying Large Language Models (LLMs) or Vision Language Models (VLMs) to boost the generalization of RL agents through policy optimization guidance or prior knowledge. However, these approaches often lack seamless coordination between the RL agent and the foundation model, leading to unreasonable decision-making in unfamiliar environments and efficiency bottlenecks. Making full use of the inferential capabilities of foundation models and the rapid response capabilities of RL agents and enhancing the interaction between the two to form a dual system is still a lingering scientific question. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from Kahneman's theory of fast thinking (System 1) and slow thinking (System 2), demonstrating that balancing intuition and deep reasoning can achieve nimble decision-making in a complex world. In this study, we propose a Dual-System Adaptive Decision Framework (DSADF), integrating two complementary modules: System 1, comprising an RL agent and a memory space for fast and intuitive decision making, and System 2, driven by a VLM for deep and analytical reasoning. DSADF facilitates efficient and adaptive decision-making by combining the strengths of both systems. The empirical study in the video game environment: Crafter and Housekeep demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed method, showing significant improvements in decision abilities for both unseen and known tasks.
CLaP -- State Detection from Time Series
Ermshaus, Arik, Schäfer, Patrick, Leser, Ulf
The ever-growing amount of sensor data from machines, smart devices, and the environment leads to an abundance of high-resolution, unannotated time series (TS). These recordings encode recognizable properties of latent states and transitions from physical phenomena that can be modelled as abstract processes. The unsupervised localization and identification of these states and their transitions is the task of time series state detection (TSSD). Current TSSD algorithms employ classical unsupervised learning techniques, to infer state membership directly from feature space. This limits their predictive power, compared to supervised learning methods, which can exploit additional label information. We introduce CLaP, a new, highly accurate and efficient algorithm for TSSD. It leverages the predictive power of time series classification for TSSD in an unsupervised setting by applying novel self-supervision techniques to detect whether data segments emerge from the same state. To this end, CLaP cross-validates a classifier with segment-labelled subsequences to quantify confusion between segments. It merges labels from segments with high confusion, representing the same latent state, if this leads to an increase in overall classification quality. We conducted an experimental evaluation using 405 TS from five benchmarks and found CLaP to be significantly more precise in detecting states than six state-of-the-art competitors. It achieves the best accuracy-runtime tradeoff and is scalable to large TS. We provide a Python implementation of CLaP, which can be deployed in TS analysis workflows.
Solving Constrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems with Scalarisation
Schmalz, Johannes, Trevizan, Felipe
Constrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (CSSPs) model problems with probabilistic effects, where a primary cost is min-imised subject to constraints over secondary costs, e.g., minimise time subject to monetary budget. Current heuristic search algorithms for CSSPs solve a sequence of increasingly larger CSSPs as linear programs until an optimal solution for the original CSSP is found. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm CARL, which solves a series of unconstrained Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs) with efficient heuristic search algorithms. These SSP subproblems are constructed with scalarisations that project the CSSP's vector of primary and secondary costs onto a scalar cost. CARL finds a maximising scalarisation using an optimisation algorithm similar to the subgradient method which, together with the solution to its associated SSP, yields a set of policies that are combined into an optimal policy for the CSSP . Our experiments show that CARL solves 50% more problems than the state-of-the-art on existing benchmarks.
Solving the Min-Max Multiple Traveling Salesmen Problem via Learning-Based Path Generation and Optimal Splitting
Wang, Wen, Wu, Xiangchen, Wang, Liang, Hu, Hao, Tao, Xianping, Zhang, Linghao
This study addresses the Min-Max Multiple Traveling Salesmen Problem ($m^3$-TSP), which aims to coordinate tours for multiple salesmen such that the length of the longest tour is minimized. Due to its NP-hard nature, exact solvers become impractical under the assumption that $P \ne NP$. As a result, learning-based approaches have gained traction for their ability to rapidly generate high-quality approximate solutions. Among these, two-stage methods combine learning-based components with classical solvers, simplifying the learning objective. However, this decoupling often disrupts consistent optimization, potentially degrading solution quality. To address this issue, we propose a novel two-stage framework named \textbf{Generate-and-Split} (GaS), which integrates reinforcement learning (RL) with an optimal splitting algorithm in a joint training process. The splitting algorithm offers near-linear scalability with respect to the number of cities and guarantees optimal splitting in Euclidean space for any given path. To facilitate the joint optimization of the RL component with the algorithm, we adopt an LSTM-enhanced model architecture to address partial observability. Extensive experiments show that the proposed GaS framework significantly outperforms existing learning-based approaches in both solution quality and transferability.
LaGarNet: Goal-Conditioned Recurrent State-Space Models for Pick-and-Place Garment Flattening
Kadi, Halid Abdulrahim, Terzić, Kasim
We present a novel goal-conditioned recurrent state space (GC-RSSM) model capable of learning latent dynamics of pick-and-place garment manipulation. Our proposed method LaGarNet matches the state-of-the-art performance of mesh-based methods, marking the first successful application of state-space models on complex garments. LaGarNet trains on a coverage-alignment reward and a dataset collected through a general procedure supported by a random policy and a diffusion policy learned from few human demonstrations; it substantially reduces the inductive biases introduced in the previous similar methods. We demonstrate that a single-policy LaGarNet achieves flattening on four different types of garments in both real-world and simulation settings.
Deep Learning for Markov Chains: Lyapunov Functions, Poisson's Equation, and Stationary Distributions
Qu, Yanlin, Blanchet, Jose, Glynn, Peter
Lyapunov functions are fundamental to establishing the stability of Markovian models, yet their construction typically demands substantial creativity and analytical effort. In this paper, we show that deep learning can automate this process by training neural networks to satisfy integral equations derived from first-transition analysis. Beyond stability analysis, our approach can be adapted to solve Poisson's equation and estimate stationary distributions. While neural networks are inherently function approximators on compact domains, it turns out that our approach remains effective when applied to Markov chains on non-compact state spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this methodology through several examples from queueing theory and beyond.
From Classical Probabilistic Latent Variable Models to Modern Generative AI: A Unified Perspective
From large language models to multi-modal agents, Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) now underpins state-of-the-art systems. Despite their varied architectures, many share a common foundation in probabilistic latent variable models (PLVMs), where hidden variables explain observed data for density estimation, latent reasoning, and structured inference. This paper presents a unified perspective by framing both classical and modern generative methods within the PLVM paradigm. We trace the progression from classical flat models such as probabilistic PCA, Gaussian mixture models, latent class analysis, item response theory, and latent Dirichlet allocation, through their sequential extensions including Hidden Markov Models, Gaussian HMMs, and Linear Dynamical Systems, to contemporary deep architectures: Variational Autoencoders as Deep PLVMs, Normalizing Flows as Tractable PLVMs, Diffusion Models as Sequential PLVMs, Autoregressive Models as Explicit Generative Models, and Generative Adversarial Networks as Implicit PLVMs. Viewing these architectures under a common probabilistic taxonomy reveals shared principles, distinct inference strategies, and the representational trade-offs that shape their strengths. We offer a conceptual roadmap that consolidates generative AI's theoretical foundations, clarifies methodological lineages, and guides future innovation by grounding emerging architectures in their probabilistic heritage.
Expert-Guided Diffusion Planner for Auto-Bidding
Peng, Yunshan, Shu, Wenzheng, Sun, Jiahao, Zeng, Yanxiang, Pang, Jinan, Bai, Wentao, Bai, Yunke, Liu, Xialong, Jiang, Peng
Auto-bidding is widely used in advertising systems, serving a diverse range of advertisers. Generative bidding is increasingly gaining traction due to its strong planning capabilities and generalizability. Unlike traditional reinforcement learning-based bidding, generative bidding does not depend on the Markov Decision Process (MDP), thereby exhibiting superior planning performance in long-horizon scenarios. Conditional diffusion modeling approaches have shown significant promise in the field of auto-bidding. However, relying solely on return as the optimality criterion is insufficient to guarantee the generation of truly optimal decision sequences, as it lacks personalized structural information. Moreover, the auto-regressive generation mechanism of diffusion models inherently introduces timeliness risks. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel conditional diffusion modeling approach that integrates expert trajectory guidance with a skip-step sampling strategy to improve generation efficiency. The efficacy of this method has been demonstrated through comprehensive offline experiments and further substantiated by statistically significant outcomes in online A/B testing, yielding an 11.29% increase in conversions and a 12.36% growth in revenue relative to the baseline.
Representation Learning of Auxiliary Concepts for Improved Student Modeling and Exercise Recommendation
Badran, Yahya, Preisach, Christine
Personalized recommendation is a key feature of intelligent tutoring systems, typically relying on accurate models of student knowledge. Knowledge Tracing (KT) models enable this by estimating a student's mastery based on their historical interactions. Many KT models rely on human-annotated knowledge concepts (KCs), which tag each exercise with one or more skills or concepts believed to be necessary for solving it. However, these KCs can be incomplete, error-prone, or overly general. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model that learns sparse binary representations of exercises, where each bit indicates the presence or absence of a latent concept. We refer to these representations as auxiliary KCs. These representations capture conceptual structure beyond human-defined annotations and are compatible with both classical models (e.g., BKT) and modern deep learning KT architectures. We demonstrate that incorporating auxiliary KCs improves both student modeling and adaptive exercise recommendation. For student modeling, we show that augmenting classical models like BKT with auxiliary KCs leads to improved predictive performance. For recommendation, we show that using auxiliary KCs enhances both reinforcement learning-based policies and a simple planning-based method (expectimax), resulting in measurable gains in student learning outcomes within a simulated student environment.
A State-Space Approach to Nonstationary Discriminant Analysis
Xie, Shuilian, Imani, Mahdi, Dougherty, Edward R., Braga-Neto, Ulisses M.
Classical discriminant analysis assumes identically distributed training data, yet in many applications observations are collected over time and the class-conditional distributions drift. This population drift renders stationary classifiers unreliable. We propose a principled, model-based framework that embeds discriminant analysis within state-space models to obtain nonstationary linear discriminant analysis (NSLDA) and nonstationary quadratic discriminant analysis (NSQDA). For linear-Gaussian dynamics, we adapt Kalman smoothing to handle multiple samples per time step and develop two practical extensions: (i) an expectation-maximization (EM) approach that jointly estimates unknown system parameters, and (ii) a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-Kalman method that simultaneously recovers unobserved time labels and parameters, a scenario common in practice. To address nonlinear or non-Gaussian drift, we employ particle smoothing to estimate time-varying class centroids, yielding fully nonstationary discriminant rules. Extensive simulations demonstrate consistent improvements over stationary linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), and support vector machine (SVM) baselines, with robustness to noise, missing data, and class imbalance. This paper establishes a unified and data-efficient foundation for discriminant analysis under temporal distribution shift.