Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or exchangeable data settings. We develop an SVI algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a time-dependent data setting. The challenge in applying stochastic optimization in this setting arises from dependencies in the chain, which must be broken to consider minibatches of observations. We propose an algorithm that harnesses the memory decay of the chain to adaptively bound errors arising from edge effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on synthetic experiments and a large genomics dataset where a batch algorithm is computationally infeasible.

We propose a two-layer spiking network capable of performing approximate inference and learning for a hidden Markov model. The lower layer sensory neurons detect noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher layer neurons with recurrent connections infer a posterior distribution over world states from spike trains generated by sensory neurons. We show how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in the population of inference neurons represents a sample of a particular hidden world state.

The local field potential (LFP) is a source of information about the broad patterns of brain activity, and the frequencies present in these time-series measurements are often highly correlated between regions. It is believed that these regions may jointly constitute a ``brain state,'' relating to cognition and behavior. An infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) is proposed to model the evolution of brain states, based on electrophysiological LFP data measured at multiple brain regions. A brain state influences the spectral content of each region in the measured LFP. A new state-dependent tensor factorization is employed across brain regions, and the spectral properties of the LFPs are characterized in terms of Gaussian processes (GPs). The LFPs are modeled as a mixture of GPs, with state-and region-dependent mixture weights, and with the spectral content of the data encoded in GP spectral mixture covariance kernels. The model is able to estimate the number of brain states and the number of mixture components in the mixture of GPs. A new variational Bayesian split-merge algorithm is employed for inference. The model infers state changes as a function of external covariates in two novel electrophysiological datasets, using LFP data recorded simultaneously from multiple brain regions in mice; the results are validated and interpreted by subject-matter experts.

Lifted inference algorithms for probabilistic first-order logic frameworks such as Markov logic networks (MLNs) have received significant attention in recent years. These algorithms use so called lifting rules to identify symmetries in the first-order representation and reduce the inference problem over a large probabilistic model to an inference problem over a much smaller model. In this paper, we present two new lifting rules, which enable fast MAP inference in a large class of MLNs. Our first rule uses the concept of single occurrence equivalence class of logical variables, which we define in the paper. The rule states that the MAP assignment over an MLN can be recovered from a much smaller MLN, in which each logical variable in each single occurrence equivalence class is replaced by a constant (i.e., an object in the domain of the variable). Our second rule states that we can safely remove a subset of formulas from the MLN if all equivalence classes of variables in the remaining MLN are single occurrence and all formulas in the subset are tautology (i.e., evaluate to true) at extremes (i.e., assignments with identical truth value for groundings of a predicate). We prove that our two new rules are sound and demonstrate via a detailed experimental evaluation that our approach is superior in terms of scalability and MAP solution quality to the state of the art approaches.

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are weighted first-order logic templates for generating large (ground) Markov networks. Lifted inference algorithms for them bring the power of logical inference to probabilistic inference. These algorithms operate as much as possible at the compact first-order level, grounding or propositionalizing the MLN only as necessary. As a result, lifted inference algorithms can be much more scalable than propositional algorithms that operate directly on the much larger ground network. Unfortunately, existing lifted inference algorithms suffer from two interrelated problems, which severely affects their scalability in practice. First, for most real-world MLNs having complex structure, they are unable to exploit symmetries and end up grounding most atoms (the grounding problem).

We introduce a novel sampling algorithm for Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models. This algorithm is based on an auxiliary variable construction that restricts the model space allowing iterative exploration in polynomial time. The sampling approach overcomes limitations with common conditional Gibbs samplers that use asymmetric updates and become easily trapped in local modes. Instead, our method uses symmetric moves that allows joint updating of the latent sequences and improves mixing. We illustrate the application of the approach with simulated and a real data example.

We show that the usual score function for conditional Markov networks can be written as the expectation over the scores of their spanning trees. We also show that a small random sample of these output trees can attain a significant fraction of the margin obtained by the complete graph and we provide conditions under which we can perform tractable inference. The experimental results confirm that practical learning is scalable to realistic datasets using this approach.

Post-Training Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to build interactive agents holds promise across domains such as computer-use, web navigation, and robotics. A key challenge in scaling such post-training is lack of high-quality downstream agentic task datasets with tasks that are diverse, feasible, and verifiable. Existing approaches for task generation rely heavily on human annotation or prompting MLLM with limited downstream environment information, which is either costly or poorly scalable as it yield tasks with limited coverage. To remedy this, we present AutoPlay, a scalable pipeline for task generation that explicitly explores interactive environments to discover possible interactions and current state information to synthesize environment-grounded tasks. AutoPlay operates in two stages: (i) an exploration phase, where an MLLM explorer agent systematically uncovers novel environment states and functionalities, and (ii) a task generation phase, where a task generator leverages exploration trajectories and a set of task guideline prompts as context to synthesize diverse, executable, and verifiable tasks. We show AutoPlay generates 20k tasks across 20 Android applications and 10k tasks across 13 applications Ubuntu applications to train mobile-use and computer-use agents. AutoPlay generated tasks enable large-scale task demonstration synthesis without human annotation by employing an MLLM task executor and verifier. This data enables training MLLM-based UI agents that improve success rates up to $20.0\%$ on mobile-use and $10.9\%$ on computer-use scenarios. In addition, AutoPlay generated tasks combined with MLLM verifier-based rewards enable scaling reinforcement learning training of UI agents, leading to an additional $5.7\%$ gain. coverage. These results establish AutoPlay as a scalable approach for post-training capable MLLM agents reducing reliance on human annotation.

The current paradigm for reasoning in large language models (LLMs) involves models "thinking out loud" via a sequence of tokens, known as chain-of-thought (CoT). This approach, while effective, has several significant drawbacks. Firstly, inference requires autoregressive generation of often thousands of CoT tokens, which is slow and computationally expensive. Secondly, it constrains reasoning to the discrete space of tokens, creating an information bottleneck across reasoning steps. Thirdly, it fundamentally entangles reasoning with token generation, forcing LLMs to "think while speaking," which causes potentially short-sighted reasoning. In light of these limitations, we re-imagine reasoning in LLMs and present a new paradigm: MARCOS. In our approach, rather than autoregressively generating tokens, we model reasoning as a hidden Markov chain of continuous, high-dimensional "thoughts". Each reasoning step involves a transition of the internal thoughts, where explicit reasoning steps (which may consist of hundreds of tokens) serve as observable variables, which are windows to peek into the implicit thoughts. Since this latent process is incompatible with the standard supervised learning, we further propose a two-phase variational training scheme. Our experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MARCOS outperforms existing continuous reasoning methods and, for the first time, achieves performance comparable to token-based CoT, even surpassing it by 4.7% on GSM8K with up to 15.7x speedup in inference. Beyond this, MARCOS offers additional advantages, such as step-level instead of token-level control over randomness, opening significant opportunities for reinforcement learning and reasoning in LLMs.

RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Current methods rely primarily on policy optimization frameworks like PPO and GRPO, which follow generalized policy iteration that alternates between evaluating the current policy's value and improving the policy based on evaluation. While effective, they often suffer from training instability and diversity collapse, requiring complex heuristic tricks and careful tuning. We observe that standard RLVR in math reasoning can be formalized as a specialized finite-horizon Markov Decision Process with deterministic state transitions, tree-structured dynamics, and binary terminal rewards. Though large in scale, the underlying structure is simpler than general-purpose control settings for which popular RL algorithms (e.g., PPO) were developed, suggesting that several sophisticated techniques in existing methods may be reduced or even omitted. Based on this insight, we prove a surprising result: the optimal action can be recovered from the Q-function of a fixed uniformly random policy, thereby bypassing the generalized policy iteration loop and its associated heuristics. We introduce Random Policy Valuation for Diverse Reasoning (ROVER) to translate this principle into a practical and scalable algorithm for LLM math reasoning, a minimalist yet highly effective RL method that samples actions from a softmax over these uniform-policy Q-values. ROVER preserves diversity throughout training, allowing sustained exploration of multiple valid pathways. Across multiple base models and standard math reasoning benchmarks, ROVER demonstrates superior performance in both \textbf{quality} (\textbf{+8.2} on pass@1, \textbf{+16.8} on pass@256) and \textbf{diversity} (\textbf{+17.6\%}), despite its radical simplification compared to strong, complicated existing methods.