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 Markov Models


Scaling-up Importance Sampling for Markov Logic Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) are weighted first-order logic templates for generating large (ground) Markov networks. Lifted inference algorithms for them bring the power of logical inference to probabilistic inference. These algorithms operate as much as possible at the compact first-order level, grounding or propositionalizing the MLN only as necessary. As a result, lifted inference algorithms can be much more scalable than propositional algorithms that operate directly on the much larger ground network. Unfortunately, existing lifted inference algorithms suffer from two interrelated problems, which severely affects their scalability in practice. First, for most real-world MLNs having complex structure, they are unable to exploit symmetries and end up grounding most atoms (the grounding problem).


Hamming Ball Auxiliary Sampling for Factorial Hidden Markov Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a novel sampling algorithm for Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models. This algorithm is based on an auxiliary variable construction that restricts the model space allowing iterative exploration in polynomial time. The sampling approach overcomes limitations with common conditional Gibbs samplers that use asymmetric updates and become easily trapped in local modes. Instead, our method uses symmetric moves that allows joint updating of the latent sequences and improves mixing. We illustrate the application of the approach with simulated and a real data example.


Multilabel Structured Output Learning with Random Spanning Trees of Max-Margin Markov Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

We show that the usual score function for conditional Markov networks can be written as the expectation over the scores of their spanning trees. We also show that a small random sample of these output trees can attain a significant fraction of the margin obtained by the complete graph and we provide conditions under which we can perform tractable inference. The experimental results confirm that practical learning is scalable to realistic datasets using this approach.


Scaling Synthetic Task Generation for Agents via Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Post-Training Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to build interactive agents holds promise across domains such as computer-use, web navigation, and robotics. A key challenge in scaling such post-training is lack of high-quality downstream agentic task datasets with tasks that are diverse, feasible, and verifiable. Existing approaches for task generation rely heavily on human annotation or prompting MLLM with limited downstream environment information, which is either costly or poorly scalable as it yield tasks with limited coverage. To remedy this, we present AutoPlay, a scalable pipeline for task generation that explicitly explores interactive environments to discover possible interactions and current state information to synthesize environment-grounded tasks. AutoPlay operates in two stages: (i) an exploration phase, where an MLLM explorer agent systematically uncovers novel environment states and functionalities, and (ii) a task generation phase, where a task generator leverages exploration trajectories and a set of task guideline prompts as context to synthesize diverse, executable, and verifiable tasks. We show AutoPlay generates 20k tasks across 20 Android applications and 10k tasks across 13 applications Ubuntu applications to train mobile-use and computer-use agents. AutoPlay generated tasks enable large-scale task demonstration synthesis without human annotation by employing an MLLM task executor and verifier. This data enables training MLLM-based UI agents that improve success rates up to $20.0\%$ on mobile-use and $10.9\%$ on computer-use scenarios. In addition, AutoPlay generated tasks combined with MLLM verifier-based rewards enable scaling reinforcement learning training of UI agents, leading to an additional $5.7\%$ gain. coverage. These results establish AutoPlay as a scalable approach for post-training capable MLLM agents reducing reliance on human annotation.


MARCOS: Deep Thinking by Markov Chain of Continuous Thoughts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The current paradigm for reasoning in large language models (LLMs) involves models "thinking out loud" via a sequence of tokens, known as chain-of-thought (CoT). This approach, while effective, has several significant drawbacks. Firstly, inference requires autoregressive generation of often thousands of CoT tokens, which is slow and computationally expensive. Secondly, it constrains reasoning to the discrete space of tokens, creating an information bottleneck across reasoning steps. Thirdly, it fundamentally entangles reasoning with token generation, forcing LLMs to "think while speaking," which causes potentially short-sighted reasoning. In light of these limitations, we re-imagine reasoning in LLMs and present a new paradigm: MARCOS. In our approach, rather than autoregressively generating tokens, we model reasoning as a hidden Markov chain of continuous, high-dimensional "thoughts". Each reasoning step involves a transition of the internal thoughts, where explicit reasoning steps (which may consist of hundreds of tokens) serve as observable variables, which are windows to peek into the implicit thoughts. Since this latent process is incompatible with the standard supervised learning, we further propose a two-phase variational training scheme. Our experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MARCOS outperforms existing continuous reasoning methods and, for the first time, achieves performance comparable to token-based CoT, even surpassing it by 4.7% on GSM8K with up to 15.7x speedup in inference. Beyond this, MARCOS offers additional advantages, such as step-level instead of token-level control over randomness, opening significant opportunities for reinforcement learning and reasoning in LLMs.


Random Policy Valuation is Enough for LLM Reasoning with Verifiable Rewards

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Current methods rely primarily on policy optimization frameworks like PPO and GRPO, which follow generalized policy iteration that alternates between evaluating the current policy's value and improving the policy based on evaluation. While effective, they often suffer from training instability and diversity collapse, requiring complex heuristic tricks and careful tuning. We observe that standard RLVR in math reasoning can be formalized as a specialized finite-horizon Markov Decision Process with deterministic state transitions, tree-structured dynamics, and binary terminal rewards. Though large in scale, the underlying structure is simpler than general-purpose control settings for which popular RL algorithms (e.g., PPO) were developed, suggesting that several sophisticated techniques in existing methods may be reduced or even omitted. Based on this insight, we prove a surprising result: the optimal action can be recovered from the Q-function of a fixed uniformly random policy, thereby bypassing the generalized policy iteration loop and its associated heuristics. We introduce Random Policy Valuation for Diverse Reasoning (ROVER) to translate this principle into a practical and scalable algorithm for LLM math reasoning, a minimalist yet highly effective RL method that samples actions from a softmax over these uniform-policy Q-values. ROVER preserves diversity throughout training, allowing sustained exploration of multiple valid pathways. Across multiple base models and standard math reasoning benchmarks, ROVER demonstrates superior performance in both \textbf{quality} (\textbf{+8.2} on pass@1, \textbf{+16.8} on pass@256) and \textbf{diversity} (\textbf{+17.6\%}), despite its radical simplification compared to strong, complicated existing methods.


DyMoDreamer: World Modeling with Dynamic Modulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A critical bottleneck in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is sample inefficiency, as training high-performance agents often demands extensive environmental interactions. Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) mitigates this by building world models that simulate environmental dynamics and generate synthetic experience, improving sample efficiency. However, conventional world models process observations holistically, failing to decouple dynamic objects and temporal features from static backgrounds. This approach is computationally inefficient, especially for visual tasks where dynamic objects significantly influence rewards and decision-making performance. To address this, we introduce DyMoDreamer, a novel MBRL algorithm that incorporates a dynamic modulation mechanism to improve the extraction of dynamic features and enrich the temporal information. DyMoDreamer employs differential observations derived from a novel inter-frame differencing mask, explicitly encoding object-level motion cues and temporal dynamics. Dynamic modulation is modeled as stochastic categorical distributions and integrated into a recurrent state-space model (RSSM), enhancing the model's focus on reward-relevant dynamics. Experiments demonstrate that DyMoDreamer sets a new state-of-the-art on the Atari $100$k benchmark with a $156.6$\% mean human-normalized score, establishes a new record of $832$ on the DeepMind Visual Control Suite, and gains a $9.5$\% performance improvement after $1$M steps on the Crafter benchmark. Our code is released at https://github.com/Ultraman-Tiga1/DyMoDreamer.


Mash, Spread, Slice! Learning to Manipulate Object States via Visual Spatial Progress

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most robot manipulation focuses on changing the kinematic state of objects: picking, placing, opening, or rotating them. However, a wide range of real-world manipulation tasks involve a different class of object state change--such as mashing, spreading, or slicing--where the object's physical and visual state evolve progressively without necessarily changing its position. We present SPARTA, the first unified framework for the family of object state change manipulation tasks. Our key insight is that these tasks share a common structural pattern: they involve spatially-progressing, object-centric changes that can be represented as regions transitioning from an actionable to a transformed state. Building on this insight, SPARTA integrates spatially progressing object change segmentation maps, a visual skill to perceive actionable vs. transformed regions for specific object state change tasks, to generate a) structured policy observations that strip away appearance variability, and b) dense rewards that capture incremental progress over time. These are leveraged in two SPARTA policy variants: reinforcement learning for fine-grained control without demonstrations or simulation; and greedy control for fast, lightweight deployment. We validate SPARTA on a real robot for three challenging tasks across 10 diverse real-world objects, achieving significant improvements in training time and accuracy over sparse rewards and visual goal-conditioned baselines. Our results highlight progress-aware visual representations as a versatile foundation for the broader family of object state manipulation tasks. Project website: https://vision.cs.utexas.edu/projects/sparta-robot


Learning with Local Search MCMC Layers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Integrating combinatorial optimization layers into neural networks has recently attracted significant research interest. However, many existing approaches lack theoretical guarantees or fail to perform adequately when relying on inexact solvers. This is a critical limitation, as many operations research problems are NP-hard, often necessitating the use of neighborhood-based local search heuristics. These heuristics iteratively generate and evaluate candidate solutions based on an acceptance rule. In this paper, we introduce a theoretically-principled approach for learning with such inexact combinatorial solvers. Inspired by the connection between simulated annealing and Metropolis-Hastings, we propose to transform problem-specific neighborhood systems used in local search heuristics into proposal distributions, implementing MCMC on the combinatorial space of feasible solutions. This allows us to construct differentiable combinatorial layers and associated loss functions. Replacing an exact solver by a local search strongly reduces the computational burden of learning on many applications. We demonstrate our approach on a large-scale dynamic vehicle routing problem with time windows.


TRACE Back from the Future: A Probabilistic Reasoning Approach to Controllable Language Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either post-train LMs for each new attribute--expensive and inflexible--or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce TRACE (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable probabilistic reasoning and lightweight control. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM's predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM's next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art detoxification results with only 20% decoding overhead, yields 76 low-resource personalized LMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes. Our code is available at: https://github.com/yidouweng/trace.