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 Markov Models


Impatient Users Confuse AI Agents: High-fidelity Simulations of Human Traits for Testing Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite rapid progress in building conversational AI agents, robustness is still largely untested. Small shifts in user behavior, such as being more impatient, incoherent, or skeptical, can cause sharp drops in agent performance, revealing how brittle current AI agents are. Today's benchmarks fail to capture this fragility: agents may perform well under standard evaluations but degrade spectacularly in more realistic and varied settings. We address this robustness testing gap by introducing TraitBasis, a lightweight, model-agnostic method for systematically stress testing AI agents. TraitBasis learns directions in activation space corresponding to steerable user traits (e.g., impatience or incoherence), which can be controlled, scaled, composed, and applied at inference time without any fine-tuning or extra data. Using TraitBasis, we extend $ฯ„$-Bench to $ฯ„$-Trait, where user behaviors are altered via controlled trait vectors. We observe on average a 2%-30% performance degradation on $ฯ„$-Trait across frontier models, highlighting the lack of robustness of current AI agents to variations in user behavior. Together, these results highlight both the critical role of robustness testing and the promise of TraitBasis as a simple, data-efficient, and compositional tool. By powering simulation-driven stress tests and training loops, TraitBasis opens the door to building AI agents that remain reliable in the unpredictable dynamics of real-world human interactions. We have open-sourced $ฯ„$-Trai across four domains: airline, retail, telecom, and telehealth, so the community can systematically QA their agents under realistic, behaviorally diverse intents and trait scenarios: https://github.com/collinear-ai/tau-trait.


Doctor-R1: Mastering Clinical Inquiry with Experiential Agentic Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The professionalism of a human doctor in outpatient service depends on two core abilities: the ability to make accurate medical decisions and the medical consultation skill to conduct strategic, empathetic patient inquiry. Existing Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable accuracy on medical decision-making benchmarks. However, they often lack the ability to conduct the strategic and empathetic consultation, which is essential for real-world clinical scenarios. To address this gap, we propose Doctor-R1, an AI doctor agent trained to master both of the capabilities by ask high-yield questions and conduct strategic multi-turn inquiry to guide decision-making. Our framework introduces three key components: a multi-agent interactive environment, a two-tiered reward architecture that separately optimizes clinical decision-making and communicative inquiry skills, and an experience repository to ground policy learning in high-quality prior trajectories. We evaluate Doctor-R1 on OpenAI's HealthBench and MAQuE, assessed across multi-facet metrics, such as communication quality, user experience, and task accuracy. Remarkably, Doctor-R1 surpasses state-of-the-art open-source specialized LLMs by a substantial margin with higher parameter efficiency and outperforms powerful proprietary models. Furthermore, the human evaluations show a strong preference for Doctor-R1 to generate human-preferred clinical dialogue, demonstrating the effectiveness of the framework.


Decoupling Task-Solving and Output Formatting in LLM Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adept at following instructions containing task descriptions to solve complex problems, such as mathematical reasoning and automatic evaluation (LLM-as-a-Judge). However, as prompts grow more complex, models often struggle to adhere to all instructions. This difficulty is especially common when instructive prompts intertwine reasoning directives -- specifying what the model should solve -- with rigid formatting requirements that dictate how the solution must be presented. The entanglement creates competing goals for the model, suggesting that more explicit separation of these two aspects could lead to improved performance. To this front, we introduce Deco-G, a decoding framework that explicitly decouples format adherence from task solving. Deco-G handles format compliance with a separate tractable probabilistic model (TPM), while prompts LLMs with only task instructions. At each decoding step, Deco-G combines next token probabilities from the LLM with the TPM calculated format compliance likelihood to form the output probability. To make this approach both practical and scalable for modern instruction-tuned LLMs, we introduce three key innovations: instruction-aware distillation, a flexible trie-building algorithm, and HMM state pruning for computational efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Deco-G across a wide range of tasks with diverse format requirements, including mathematical reasoning, LLM-as-a-judge, and event argument extraction. Overall, our approach yields 1.0% to 6.0% relative gain over regular prompting practice with guaranteed format compliance.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Agent Coordination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address the challenge of coordinating multiple robots in narrow and confined environments, where congestion and interference often hinder collective task performance. Drawing inspiration from insect colonies, which achieve robust coordination through stigmergy -- modifying and interpreting environmental traces -- we propose a Stigmergic Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (S-MADRL) framework that leverages virtual pheromones to model local and social interactions, enabling decentralized emergent coordination without explicit communication. To overcome the convergence and scalability limitations of existing algorithms such as MADQN, MADDPG, and MAPPO, we leverage curriculum learning, which decomposes complex tasks into progressively harder sub-problems. Simulation results show that our framework achieves the most effective coordination of up to eight agents, where robots self-organize into asymmetric workload distributions that reduce congestion and modulate group performance. This emergent behavior, analogous to strategies observed in nature, demonstrates a scalable solution for decentralized multi-agent coordination in crowded environments with communication constraints.


Improving S&P 500 Volatility Forecasting through Regime-Switching Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500 volatility by capturing structural changes in the market across time. We use eleven years of SPX data, from May 1st, 2014 to May 27th, 2025, to compute daily realized volatility (RV) from 5-minute intraday log returns, adjusted for irregular trading days. To enhance forecast accuracy, we engineered features to capture both historical dynamics and forward-looking market sentiment across regimes. The regime-switching methods include a soft Markov switching algorithm to estimate soft-regime probabilities, a distributional spectral clustering method that uses XGBoost to assign clusters at prediction time, and a coefficient-based soft regime algorithm that extracts HAR coefficients from time segments segmented through the Mood test and clusters through Bayesian GMM for soft regime weights, using XGBoost to predict regime probabilities. Models were evaluated across three time periods--before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The coefficient-based clustering algorithm outperformed all other models, including the baseline autoregressive model, during all time periods. Additionally, each model was evaluated on its recursive forecasting performance for 5- and 10-day horizons during each time period. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of regime-aware modeling frameworks and soft clustering approaches in improving volatility forecasting, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty and structural change.


Agent-ScanKit: Unraveling Memory and Reasoning of Multimodal Agents via Sensitivity Perturbations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although numerous strategies have recently been proposed to enhance the autonomous interaction capabilities of multimodal agents in graphical user interface (GUI), their reliability remains limited when faced with complex or out-of-domain tasks. This raises a fundamental question: Are existing multimodal agents reasoning spuriously? In this paper, we propose \textbf{Agent-ScanKit}, a systematic probing framework to unravel the memory and reasoning capabilities of multimodal agents under controlled perturbations. Specifically, we introduce three orthogonal probing paradigms: visual-guided, text-guided, and structure-guided, each designed to quantify the contributions of memorization and reasoning without requiring access to model internals. In five publicly available GUI benchmarks involving 18 multimodal agents, the results demonstrate that mechanical memorization often outweighs systematic reasoning. Most of the models function predominantly as retrievers of training-aligned knowledge, exhibiting limited generalization. Our findings underscore the necessity of robust reasoning modeling for multimodal agents in real-world scenarios, offering valuable insights toward the development of reliable multimodal agents.


Learning to Interact in World Latent for Team Coordination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work presents a novel representation learning framework, interactive world latent (IWoL), to facilitate team coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Building effective representation for team coordination is a challenging problem, due to the intricate dynamics emerging from multi-agent interaction and incomplete information induced by local observations. Our key insight is to construct a learnable representation space that jointly captures inter-agent relations and task-specific world information by directly modeling communication protocols. This representation, we maintain fully decentralized execution with implicit coordination, all while avoiding the inherent drawbacks of explicit message passing, e.g., slower decision-making, vulnerability to malicious attackers, and sensitivity to bandwidth constraints. In practice, our representation can be used not only as an implicit latent for each agent, but also as an explicit message for communication. Across four challenging MARL benchmarks, we evaluate both variants and show that IWoL provides a simple yet powerful key for team coordination. Moreover, we demonstrate that our representation can be combined with existing MARL algorithms to further enhance their performance.


Continuous Thought Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where neural dynamics are critical to how brains process information. Most artificial neural networks ignore the complexity of individual neurons. We challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process incoming histories; and (2) neural synchronization as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between neuron abstractions and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable. We demonstrate the CTM's performance and versatility across a range of tasks, including solving 2D mazes, ImageNet-1K classification, parity computation, and more. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems. We provide an accompanying interactive online demonstration at https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/ and an extended technical report at https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/paper .


Joint Bidding on Intraday and Frequency Containment Reserve Markets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As renewable energy integration increases supply variability, battery energy storage systems (BESS) present a viable solution for balancing supply and demand. This paper proposes a novel approach for optimizing battery BESS participation in multiple electricity markets. We develop a joint bidding strategy that combines participation in the primary frequency reserve market with continuous trading in the intraday market, addressing a gap in the extant literature which typically considers these markets in isolation or simplifies the continuous nature of intraday trading. Our approach utilizes a mixed integer linear programming implementation of the rolling intrinsic algorithm for intraday decisions and state of charge recovery, alongside a learned classifier strategy (LCS) that determines optimal capacity allocation between markets. A comprehensive out-of-sample backtest over more than one year of historical German market data validates our approach: The LCS increases overall profits by over 4% compared to the best-performing static strategy and by more than 3% over a naive dynamic benchmark. Crucially, our method closes the gap to a theoretical perfect foresight strategy to just 4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of dynamic, learning-based allocation in a complex, multi-market environment.


To Distill or Decide? Understanding the Algorithmic Trade-off in Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partial observability is a notorious challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), due to the need to learn complex, history-dependent policies. Recent empirical successes have used privileged expert distillation--which leverages availability of latent state information during training (e.g., from a simulator) to learn and imitate the optimal latent, Markovian policy--to disentangle the task of "learning to see" from "learning to act". While expert distillation is more computationally efficient than RL without latent state information, it also has well-documented failure modes. In this paper--through a simple but instructive theoretical model called the perturbed Block MDP, and controlled experiments on challenging simulated locomotion tasks--we investigate the algorithmic trade-off between privileged expert distillation and standard RL without privileged information. Our main findings are: (1) The trade-off empirically hinges on the stochasticity of the latent dynamics, as theoretically predicted by contrasting approximate decodability with belief contraction in the perturbed Block MDP; and (2) The optimal latent policy is not always the best latent policy to distill. Our results suggest new guidelines for effectively exploiting privileged information, potentially advancing the efficiency of policy learning across many practical partially observable domains.