Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500 volatility by capturing structural changes in the market across time. We use eleven years of SPX data, from May 1st, 2014 to May 27th, 2025, to compute daily realized volatility (RV) from 5-minute intraday log returns, adjusted for irregular trading days. To enhance forecast accuracy, we engineered features to capture both historical dynamics and forward-looking market sentiment across regimes. The regime-switching methods include a soft Markov switching algorithm to estimate soft-regime probabilities, a distributional spectral clustering method that uses XGBoost to assign clusters at prediction time, and a coefficient-based soft regime algorithm that extracts HAR coefficients from time segments segmented through the Mood test and clusters through Bayesian GMM for soft regime weights, using XGBoost to predict regime probabilities. Models were evaluated across three time periods--before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The coefficient-based clustering algorithm outperformed all other models, including the baseline autoregressive model, during all time periods. Additionally, each model was evaluated on its recursive forecasting performance for 5- and 10-day horizons during each time period. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of regime-aware modeling frameworks and soft clustering approaches in improving volatility forecasting, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty and structural change.

Although numerous strategies have recently been proposed to enhance the autonomous interaction capabilities of multimodal agents in graphical user interface (GUI), their reliability remains limited when faced with complex or out-of-domain tasks. This raises a fundamental question: Are existing multimodal agents reasoning spuriously? In this paper, we propose \textbf{Agent-ScanKit}, a systematic probing framework to unravel the memory and reasoning capabilities of multimodal agents under controlled perturbations. Specifically, we introduce three orthogonal probing paradigms: visual-guided, text-guided, and structure-guided, each designed to quantify the contributions of memorization and reasoning without requiring access to model internals. In five publicly available GUI benchmarks involving 18 multimodal agents, the results demonstrate that mechanical memorization often outweighs systematic reasoning. Most of the models function predominantly as retrievers of training-aligned knowledge, exhibiting limited generalization. Our findings underscore the necessity of robust reasoning modeling for multimodal agents in real-world scenarios, offering valuable insights toward the development of reliable multimodal agents.

This work presents a novel representation learning framework, interactive world latent (IWoL), to facilitate team coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Building effective representation for team coordination is a challenging problem, due to the intricate dynamics emerging from multi-agent interaction and incomplete information induced by local observations. Our key insight is to construct a learnable representation space that jointly captures inter-agent relations and task-specific world information by directly modeling communication protocols. This representation, we maintain fully decentralized execution with implicit coordination, all while avoiding the inherent drawbacks of explicit message passing, e.g., slower decision-making, vulnerability to malicious attackers, and sensitivity to bandwidth constraints. In practice, our representation can be used not only as an implicit latent for each agent, but also as an explicit message for communication. Across four challenging MARL benchmarks, we evaluate both variants and show that IWoL provides a simple yet powerful key for team coordination. Moreover, we demonstrate that our representation can be combined with existing MARL algorithms to further enhance their performance.

Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where neural dynamics are critical to how brains process information. Most artificial neural networks ignore the complexity of individual neurons. We challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process incoming histories; and (2) neural synchronization as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between neuron abstractions and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable. We demonstrate the CTM's performance and versatility across a range of tasks, including solving 2D mazes, ImageNet-1K classification, parity computation, and more. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems. We provide an accompanying interactive online demonstration at https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/ and an extended technical report at https://pub.sakana.ai/ctm/paper .

As renewable energy integration increases supply variability, battery energy storage systems (BESS) present a viable solution for balancing supply and demand. This paper proposes a novel approach for optimizing battery BESS participation in multiple electricity markets. We develop a joint bidding strategy that combines participation in the primary frequency reserve market with continuous trading in the intraday market, addressing a gap in the extant literature which typically considers these markets in isolation or simplifies the continuous nature of intraday trading. Our approach utilizes a mixed integer linear programming implementation of the rolling intrinsic algorithm for intraday decisions and state of charge recovery, alongside a learned classifier strategy (LCS) that determines optimal capacity allocation between markets. A comprehensive out-of-sample backtest over more than one year of historical German market data validates our approach: The LCS increases overall profits by over 4% compared to the best-performing static strategy and by more than 3% over a naive dynamic benchmark. Crucially, our method closes the gap to a theoretical perfect foresight strategy to just 4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of dynamic, learning-based allocation in a complex, multi-market environment.

Partial observability is a notorious challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), due to the need to learn complex, history-dependent policies. Recent empirical successes have used privileged expert distillation--which leverages availability of latent state information during training (e.g., from a simulator) to learn and imitate the optimal latent, Markovian policy--to disentangle the task of "learning to see" from "learning to act". While expert distillation is more computationally efficient than RL without latent state information, it also has well-documented failure modes. In this paper--through a simple but instructive theoretical model called the perturbed Block MDP, and controlled experiments on challenging simulated locomotion tasks--we investigate the algorithmic trade-off between privileged expert distillation and standard RL without privileged information. Our main findings are: (1) The trade-off empirically hinges on the stochasticity of the latent dynamics, as theoretically predicted by contrasting approximate decodability with belief contraction in the perturbed Block MDP; and (2) The optimal latent policy is not always the best latent policy to distill. Our results suggest new guidelines for effectively exploiting privileged information, potentially advancing the efficiency of policy learning across many practical partially observable domains.

We study the Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (RL) under distribution shifts in both finite-horizon episodic and infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In the finite-horizon case, the transition functions may suddenly change at a particular episode. In the infinite-horizon setting, such changes can occur at an arbitrary time step during the agent's interaction with the environment. While the Q-learning Upper Confidence Bound algorithm (QUCB) can discover a proper policy during learning, due to the distribution shifts, this policy can exploit sub-optimal rewards after the shift happens. To address this issue, we propose Density-QUCB (DQUCB), a shift-aware Q-learning~UCB algorithm, which uses a transition density function to detect distribution shifts, then leverages its likelihood to enhance the uncertainty estimation quality of Q-learning~UCB, resulting in a balance between exploration and exploitation. Theoretically, we prove that our oracle DQUCB achieves a better regret guarantee than QUCB. Empirically, our DQUCB enjoys the computational efficiency of model-free RL and outperforms QUCB baselines by having a lower regret across RL tasks, as well as a real-world COVID-19 patient hospital allocation task using a Deep-Q-learning architecture.

Abstract--In recent years, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has gained traction for solving the NP-hard traveling salesman problem (TSP). However, limited attention has been given to the close-enough TSP (CETSP), primarily due to the challenge introduced by its neighborhood-based visitation criterion, wherein a node is considered visited if the agent enters a compact neighborhood around it. In this work, we formulate a Markov decision process (MDP) for CETSP using a discretization scheme and propose a novel unified dual-decoder DRL (UD3RL) framework that separates decision-making into node selection and waypoint determination. Specifically, an adapted encoder is employed for effective feature extraction, followed by a node-decoder and a loc-decoder to handle the two sub-tasks, respectively. A k-nearest neighbors subgraph interaction strategy is further introduced to enhance spatial reasoning during location decoding. Furthermore, we customize the REINFORCE algorithm to train UD3RL as a unified model capable of generalizing across different problem sizes and varying neighborhood radius types (i.e., constant and random radii). Experimental results show that UD3RL outperforms conventional methods in both solution quality and runtime, while exhibiting strong generalization across problem scales, spatial distributions, and radius ranges, as well as robustness to dynamic environments. HE close-enough traveling salesman problem (CETSP) is a well-known variant of the classical traveling salesman problem (TSP) that preserves its NP-hard complexity [1].

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the main algorithm behind a large body of work in machine learning. In many cases, constraints are enforced via projections, leading to projected stochastic gradient algorithms. In recent years, a large body of work has examined the convergence properties of projected SGD for non-convex losses in asymptotic and non-asymptotic settings. Strong quantitative guarantees are available for convergence measured via Moreau envelopes. However, these results cannot be compared directly with work on unconstrained SGD, since the Moreau envelope construction changes the gradient. Other common measures based on gradient mappings have the limitation that convergence can only be guaranteed if variance reduction methods, such as mini-batching, are employed. This paper presents an analysis of projected SGD for non-convex losses over compact convex sets. Convergence is measured via the distance of the gradient to the Goldstein subdifferential generated by the constraints. Our proposed convergence criterion directly reduces to commonly used criteria in the unconstrained case, and we obtain convergence without requiring variance reduction. We obtain results for data that are independent, identically distributed (IID) or satisfy mixing conditions ($L$-mixing). In these cases, we derive asymptotic convergence and $O(N^{-1/3})$ non-asymptotic bounds in expectation, where $N$ is the number of steps. In the case of IID sub-Gaussian data, we obtain almost-sure asymptotic convergence and high-probability non-asymptotic $O(N^{-1/5})$ bounds. In particular, these are the first non-asymptotic high-probability bounds for projected SGD with non-convex losses.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.