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 Markov Models


Gradient Descent for General Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

A simple learning rule is derived, the VAPS algorithm, which can be instantiated to generate a wide range of new reinforcementlearning algorithms.These algorithms solve a number of open problems, define several new approaches to reinforcement learning, and unify different approaches to reinforcement learning under a single theory. These algorithms all have guaranteed convergence, and include modifications of several existing algorithms that were known to fail to converge on simple MOPs. These include Q learning, SARSA, and advantage learning. In addition to these value-based algorithms it also generates pure policy-search reinforcement-learning algorithms, which learn optimal policies without learning a value function. In addition, it allows policysearch andvalue-based algorithms to be combined, thus unifying two very different approaches to reinforcement learning into a single Value and Policy Search (V APS) algorithm.


Synergy and Redundancy among Brain Cells of Behaving Monkeys

Neural Information Processing Systems

While it is unlikely that complete information from any macroscopic neural tissue will ever be available, some interesting insight can be obtained from simultaneously recorded cells in the cortex of behaving animals. The question we address in this study is the level of synergy, or the level of cooperation, among brain cells, as determined by the information they provide about the observed behavior of the animal.


Graphical Models for Recognizing Human Interactions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe a real-time computer vision and machine learning system for modeling and recognizing human behaviors in two different scenarios: (1) complex, twohanded actionrecognition in the martial art of Tai Chi and (2) detection and recognition of individual human behaviors and multiple-person interactions in a visual surveillance task. In the latter case, the system is particularly concerned with detecting when interactions between people occur, and classifying them. Graphical models, such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) [6] and Coupled Hidden MarkovModels (CHMMs) [3, 2], seem appropriate for modeling and, classifying human behaviors because they offer dynamic time warping, a well-understood training algorithm, and a clear Bayesian semantics for both individual (HMMs) and interacting or coupled (CHMMs) generative processes. A major problem with this data-driven statistical approach, especially when modeling rare or anomalous behaviors, is the limited number of training examples. A major emphasis of our work, therefore, is on efficient Bayesian integration of both prior knowledge with evidence from data.


Controlling the Complexity of HMM Systems by Regularization

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper introduces a method for regularization ofHMM systems that avoids parameter overfitting caused by insufficient training data. Regularization isdone by augmenting the EM training method by a penalty term that favors simple and smooth HMM systems. The penalty term is constructed as a mixture model of negative exponential distributions that is assumed to generate the state dependent emission probabilities of the HMMs. This new method is the successful transfer of a well known regularization approach in neural networks to the HMM domain and can be interpreted as a generalization of traditional state-tying for HMM systems. Theeffect of regularization is demonstrated for continuous speech recognition tasks by improving overfitted triphone models and by speaker adaptation with limited training data. 1 Introduction One general problem when constructing statistical pattern recognition systems is to ensure the capability to generalize well, i.e. the system must be able to classify data that is not contained in the training data set.


Learning Multi-Class Dynamics

Neural Information Processing Systems

Yule-Walker) are available for learning Auto-Regressive process models of simple, directly observable, dynamical processes.When sensor noise means that dynamics are observed only approximately, learning can still been achieved via Expectation-Maximisation (EM) together with Kalman Filtering. However, this does not handle more complex dynamics, involving multiple classes of motion.


Reports on the AAAI Fall Symposia

AI Magazine

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) held its 1998 Fall Symposium Series on 23 to 25 October at the Omni Rosen Hotel in Orlando, Florida. This article contains summaries of seven of the symposia that were conducted: (1) Cognitive Robotics; (2) Distributed, Continual Planning; (3) Emotional and Intelligent: The Tangled Knot of Cognition; (4) Integrated Planning for Autonomous Agent Architectures; (5) Planning with Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes; (6) Reasoning with Visual and Diagrammatic Representations; and (7) Robotics and Biology: Developing Connections.


Decision-Theoretic Planning

AI Magazine

The recent advances in computer speed and algorithms for probabilistic inference have led to a resurgence of work on planning under uncertainty. The aim is to design AI planners for environments where there might be incomplete or faulty information, where actions might not always have the same results, and where there might be trade-offs between the different possible outcomes of a plan. Addressing uncertainty in AI, planning algorithms will greatly increase the range of potential applications, but there is plenty of work to be done before we see practical decision-theoretic planning systems. This article outlines some of the challenges that need to be overcome and surveys some of the recent work in the area.


On the Separation of Signals from Neighboring Cells in Tetrode Recordings

Neural Information Processing Systems

We discuss a solution to the problem of separating waveforms produced by multiple cells in an extracellular neural recording. We take an explicitly probabilistic approach, using latent-variable models of varying sophistication to describe the distribution of waveforms produced by a single cell. The models range from a single Gaussian distribution of waveforms for each cell to a mixture of hidden Markov models. We stress the overall statistical structure of the approach, allowing the details of the generative model chosen to depend on the specific neural preparation.


Nonlinear Markov Networks for Continuous Variables

Neural Information Processing Systems

We address the problem oflearning structure in nonlinear Markov networks with continuous variables. This can be viewed as non-Gaussian multidimensional density estimation exploiting certain conditional independencies in the variables. Markov networks are a graphical way of describing conditional independencies well suited to model relationships which do not exhibit a natural causal ordering. We use neural network structures to model the quantitative relationships between variables. The main focus in this paper will be on learning the structure for the purpose of gaining insight into the underlying process. Using two data sets we show that interesting structures can be found using our approach. Inference will be briefly addressed.


Analysis of Drifting Dynamics with Neural Network Hidden Markov Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a method for the analysis of nonstationary time series with multiple operating modes. In particular, it is possible to detect and to model both a switching of the dynamics and a less abrupt, time consuming drift from one mode to another. This is achieved in two steps. First, an unsupervised training method provides prediction experts for the inherent dynamical modes. Then, the trained experts are used in a hidden Markov model that allows to model drifts. An application to physiological wake/sleep data demonstrates that analysis and modeling of real-world time series can be improved when the drift paradigm is taken into account.