The problem that we address in this paper is how a mobile robot can plan in order to arrive at its goal with minimum uncertainty. Traditional motion planning algorithms oftenassume that a mobile robot can track its position reliably, however, in real world situations, reliable localization may not always be feasible. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide one way to maximize the certainty of reaching the goal state, but at the cost of computational intractability for large state spaces. The method we propose explicitly models the uncertainty of the robot's position as a state variable, and generates trajectories through the augmented pose-uncertainty space. By minimizing the positional uncertainty at the goal, the robot reduces the likelihood it becomes lost. We demonstrate experimentally that coastal navigation reduces the uncertainty at the goal, especially with degraded localization.

We consider the problem of reconstructing a temporal discrete sequence of multidimensional real vectors when part of the data is missing, under the assumption that the sequence was generated by a continuous process. Aparticular case of this problem is multivariate regression, which is very difficult when the underlying mapping is one-to-many. We propose analgorithm based on a joint probability model of the variables of interest, implemented using a nonlinear latent variable model. Each point in the sequence is potentially reconstructed as any of the modes of the conditional distribution of the missing variables given the present variables (computed using an exhaustive mode search in a Gaussian mixture). Modeselection is determined by a dynamic programming search that minimises a geometric measure of the reconstructed sequence, derived fromcontinuity constraints. We illustrate the algorithm with a toy example and apply it to a real-world inverse problem, the acoustic-toarticulatory mapping.The results show that the algorithm outperforms conditional mean imputation and multilayer perceptrons. 1 Definition of the problem

The problem of developing good policies for partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDPs) remains one of the most challenging areas ofresearch in stochastic planning. One line of research in this area involves the use of reinforcement learning with belief states, probability distributionsover the underlying model states. This is a promising methodfor small problems, but its application is limited by the intractability ofcomputing or representing a full belief state for large problems. Recent work shows that, in many settings, we can maintain an approximate belief state, which is fairly close to the true belief state. In particular, great success has been shown with approximate belief states that marginalize out correlations between state variables. In this paper, we investigate two methods of full belief state reinforcement learning and one novel method for reinforcement learning using factored approximate belief states. We compare the performance of these algorithms on several well-known problem from the literature. Our results demonstrate the importance ofapproximate belief state representations for large problems.

We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial tMRI activation experimentswith blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. The advantage ofthis method is that detection of short time learning effects between repeated trials is possible since inference is based only on single trial experiments.

We consider the problem of learning a grid-based map using a robot with noisy sensors and actuators. We compare two approaches: online EM, where the map is treated as a fixed parameter, and Bayesian inference, where the map is a (matrix-valued) random variable. We show that even on a very simple example, online EM can get stuck in local minima, which causes the robot to get "lost" and the resulting map to be useless. By contrast, the Bayesian approach, by maintaining multiple hypotheses, is much more robust. Wethen introduce a method for approximating the Bayesian solution, called Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering. We show that this approximation, when coupled with an active learning strategy, is fast but accurate.

We consider the problem of reliably choosing a near-best strategy from a restricted class of strategies TI in a partially observable Markov decision process(POMDP). We assume we are given the ability to simulate the POMDP, and study what might be called the sample complexity - that is, the amount of data one must generate in the POMDP in order to choose a good strategy. We prove upper bounds on the sample complexity showingthat, even for infinitely large and arbitrarily complex POMDPs, the amount of data needed can be finite, and depends only linearly on the complexity of the restricted strategy class TI, and exponentially onthe horizon time. This latter dependence can be eased in a variety of ways, including the application of gradient and local search algorithms.

We formulate a model for probability distributions on image spaces. We show that any distribution of images can be factored exactly into conditional distributionsof feature vectors at one resolution (pyramid level) conditioned on the image information at lower resolutions. We would like to factor this over positions in the pyramid levels to make it tractable, but such factoring may miss long-range dependencies. To fix this, we introduce hiddenclass labels at each pixel in the pyramid. The result is a hierarchical mixture of conditional probabilities, similar to a hidden Markov model on a tree. The model parameters can be found with maximum likelihoodestimation using the EM algorithm. We have obtained encouraging preliminary results on the problems of detecting various objects inSAR images and target recognition in optical aerial images. 1 Introduction

This article describes a methodology for programming robots known as probabilistic robotics. The probabilistic paradigm pays tribute to the inherent uncertainty in robot perception, relying on explicit representations of uncertainty when determining what to do. This article surveys some of the progress in the field, using in-depth examples to illustrate some of the nuts and bolts of the basic approach. My central conjecture is that the probabilistic approach to robotics scales better to complex real-world applications than approaches that ignore a robot's uncertainty.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide an elegant mathematical framework for modeling complex decision and planning problems in stochastic domains in which states of the system are observable only indirectly, via a set of imperfect or noisy observations. The modeling advantage of POMDPs, however, comes at a price -- exact methods for solving them are computationally very expensive and thus applicable in practice only to very simple problems. We focus on efficient approximation (heuristic) methods that attempt to alleviate the computational problem and trade off accuracy for speed. We have two objectives here. First, we survey various approximation methods, analyze their properties and relations and provide some new insights into their differences. Second, we present a number of new approximation methods and novel refinements of existing techniques. The theoretical results are supported by experiments on a problem from the agent navigation domain.

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative procedure for maximum likelihood parameter estimation from data sets with missing or hidden variables [2]. It has been applied to system identification in linear stochastic state-space models, where the state variables are hidden from the observer and both the state and the parameters of the model have to be estimated simultaneously [9]. We present a generalization of the EM algorithm for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The "expectation" step makes use of Extended Kalman Smoothing to estimate the state, while the "maximization" step re-estimates the parameters using these uncertain state estimates. In general, the nonlinear maximization step is difficult because it requires integrating out the uncertainty in the states.