Most existing tracking algorithms construct a representation of a target object prior to the tracking task starts, and utilize invariant features to handle appearance variation of the target caused by lighting, pose, and view angle change. In this paper, we present an efficient and effective onlinealgorithm that incrementally learns and adapts a low dimensional eigenspacerepresentation to reflect appearance changes of the target, thereby facilitating the tracking task. Furthermore, our incremental method correctly updates the sample mean and the eigenbasis, whereas existing incremental subspace update methods ignore the fact the sample mean varies over time. The tracking problem is formulated as a state inference problem within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework and a particle filter is incorporated for propagating sample distributions over time. Numerous experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed trackingalgorithm in indoor and outdoor environments where the target objects undergo large pose and lighting changes.

Existing algorithms for discrete partially observable Markov decision processes can at best solve problems of a few thousand states due to two important sources of intractability: the curse of dimensionality and the policy space complexity. This paper describes a new algorithm (VDCBPI) that mitigates both sources of intractability by combining the V alue Directed Compression (VDC) technique [13] with Bounded Policy Iteration (BPI) [14]. The scalability of VDCBPI is demonstrated on synthetic network management problems with up to 33 million states. 1 Introduction Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a natural and expressive framework for decision making, but their use in practice has been limited by the lack of scalable solution algorithms. T wo important sources of intractability plague discrete model-based POMDPs: high dimensionality of belief space, and the complexity of policy or value function (VF) space. Classic solution algorithms [4, 10, 7], for example, compute value functions represented by exponentially many value vectors, each of exponential size. As a result, they can only solve POMDPs with on the order of 100 states.

As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabilities, adynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates optimally. Thesemodels are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural representation andmanipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations. We illustrate theapproach on a simple random walk example, and apply it to a sensorimotor integration task that provides a particularly compelling example of dynamic probabilistic computation. Bayesian models have been used to explain a gamut of experimental results in tasks which require estimates to be derived from multiple sensory cues.

We propose the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP), a nonparametric Bayesian model for clustering problems involving multiple groups of data. Each group of data is modeled with a mixture, with the number of components being open-ended and inferred automatically by the model. Further, components can be shared across groups, allowing dependencies across groups to be modeled effectively as well as conferring generalization tonew groups. Such grouped clustering problems occur often in practice, e.g. in the problem of topic discovery in document corpora. We report experimental results on three text corpora showing the effective and superior performance of the HDP over previous models.

We describe semi-Markov conditional random fields (semi-CRFs), a conditionally trainedversion of semi-Markov chains. Intuitively, a semi-CRF on an input sequence x outputs a "segmentation" of x, in which labels are assigned to segments (i.e., subsequences) of x rather than to individual elements x

First-order Markov models have been successfully applied to many problems, forexample in modeling sequential data using Markov chains, and modeling control problems using the Markov decision processes (MDP) formalism. If a first-order Markov model's parameters are estimated from data, the standard maximum likelihood estimator considers only the first-order (single-step) transitions. But for many problems, the firstorder conditionalindependence assumptions are not satisfied, and as a result the higher order transition probabilities may be poorly approximated. Motivated by the problem of learning an MDP's parameters for control, we propose an algorithm for learning a first-order Markov model that explicitly takesinto account higher order interactions during training. Our algorithm uses an optimization criterion different from maximum likelihood, andallows us to learn models that capture longer range effects, but without giving up the benefits of using first-order Markov models. Our experimental results also show the new algorithm outperforming conventional maximumlikelihood estimation in a number of control problems where the MDP's parameters are estimated from data.

We describe the version of the GPT planner used in the probabilistic track of the 4th International Planning Competition (ipc-4). This version, called mGPT, solves Markov Decision Processes specified in the ppddl language by extracting and using different classes of lower bounds along with various heuristic-search algorithms. The lower bounds are extracted from deterministic relaxations where the alternative probabilistic effects of an action are mapped into different, independent, deterministic actions. The heuristic-search algorithms use these lower bounds for focusing the updates and delivering a consistent value function over all states reachable from the initial state and the greedy policy.

We develop and analyze methods for computing provably optimal {\em maximum a posteriori} (MAP) configurations for a subclass of Markov random fields defined on graphs with cycles. By decomposing the original distribution into a convex combination of tree-structured distributions, we obtain an upper bound on the optimal value of the original problem (i.e., the log probability of the MAP assignment) in terms of the combined optimal values of the tree problems. We prove that this upper bound is tight if and only if all the tree distributions share an optimal configuration in common. An important implication is that any such shared configuration must also be a MAP configuration for the original distribution. Next we develop two approaches to attempting to obtain tight upper bounds: (a) a {\em tree-relaxed linear program} (LP), which is derived from the Lagrangian dual of the upper bounds; and (b) a {\em tree-reweighted max-product message-passing algorithm} that is related to but distinct from the max-product algorithm. In this way, we establish a connection between a certain LP relaxation of the mode-finding problem, and a reweighted form of the max-product (min-sum) message-passing algorithm.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form an attractive and principled framework for agent planning under uncertainty. Point-based approximate techniques for POMDPs compute a policy based on a finite set of points collected in advance from the agent's belief space. We present a randomized point-based value iteration algorithm called Perseus. The algorithm performs approximate value backup stages, ensuring that in each backup stage the value of each point in the belief set is improved; the key observation is that a single backup may improve the value of many belief points. Contrary to other point-based methods, Perseus backs up only a (randomly selected) subset of points in the belief set, sufficient for improving the value of each belief point in the set. We show how the same idea can be extended to dealing with continuous action spaces. Experimental results show the potential of Perseus in large scale POMDP problems.

In this paper, we consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with error states. Error states are those states entering which is undesirable or dangerous. We define the risk with respect to a policy as the probability of entering such a state when the policy is pursued. We consider the problem of finding good policies whose risk is smaller than some user-specified threshold, and formalize it as a constrained MDP with two criteria. The first criterion corresponds to the value function originally given. We will show that the risk can be formulated as a second criterion function based on a cumulative return, whose definition is independent of the original value function. We present a model free, heuristic reinforcement learning algorithm that aims at finding good deterministic policies. It is based on weighting the original value function and the risk. The weight parameter is adapted in order to find a feasible solution for the constrained problem that has a good performance with respect to the value function. The algorithm was successfully applied to the control of a feed tank with stochastic inflows that lies upstream of a distillation column. This control task was originally formulated as an optimal control problem with chance constraints, and it was solved under certain assumptions on the model to obtain an optimal solution. The power of our learning algorithm is that it can be used even when some of these restrictive assumptions are relaxed.