Markov Models
Integrating Topics and Syntax
Griffiths, Thomas L., Steyvers, Mark, Blei, David M., Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Statistical approaches to language learning typically focus on either short-range syntactic dependencies or long-range semantic dependencies between words. We present a generative model that uses both kinds of dependencies, and can be used to simultaneously find syntactic classes and semantic topics despite having no representation of syntax or semantics beyond statistical dependency. This model is competitive on tasks like part-of-speech tagging and document classification with models that exclusively use short-and long-range dependencies respectively.
Probabilistic Computation in Spiking Populations
Zemel, Richard S., Natarajan, Rama, Dayan, Peter, Huys, Quentin J.
As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabilities, a dynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates optimally. These models are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural representation and manipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations. We illustrate the approach on a simple random walk example, and apply it to a sensorimotor integration task that provides a particularly compelling example of dynamic probabilistic computation. Bayesian models have been used to explain a gamut of experimental results in tasks which require estimates to be derived from multiple sensory cues.
Resolving Perceptual Aliasing In The Presence Of Noisy Sensors
Agents learning to act in a partially observable domain may need to overcome the problem of perceptual aliasing - i.e., different states that appear similar but require different responses. This problem is exacerbated when the agent's sensors are noisy, i.e., sensors may produce different observations in the same state. We show that many well-known reinforcement learning methods designed to deal with perceptual aliasing, such as Utile Suffix Memory, finite size history windows, eligibility traces, and memory bits, do not handle noisy sensors well. We suggest a new algorithm, Noisy Utile Suffix Memory (NUSM), based on USM, that uses a weighted classification of observed trajectories. We compare NUSM to the above methods and show it to be more robust to noise.
Sharing Clusters among Related Groups: Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes
Teh, Yee W., Jordan, Michael I., Beal, Matthew J., Blei, David M.
We propose the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP), a nonparametric Bayesian model for clustering problems involving multiple groups of data. Each group of data is modeled with a mixture, with the number of components being open-ended and inferred automatically by the model. Further, components can be shared across groups, allowing dependencies across groups to be modeled effectively as well as conferring generalization to new groups. Such grouped clustering problems occur often in practice, e.g. in the problem of topic discovery in document corpora. We report experimental results on three text corpora showing the effective and superior performance of the HDP over previous models.
Exponentiated Gradient Algorithms for Large-margin Structured Classification
Bartlett, Peter L., Collins, Michael, Taskar, Ben, McAllester, David A.
We consider the problem of structured classification, where the task is to predict a label y from an input x, and y has meaningful internal structure. Our framework includes supervised training of Markov random fields and weighted context-free grammars as special cases. We describe an algorithm that solves the large-margin optimization problem defined in [12], using an exponential-family (Gibbs distribution) representation of structured objects. The algorithm is efficient--even in cases where the number of labels y is exponential in size--provided that certain expectations under Gibbs distributions can be calculated efficiently. The method for structured labels relies on a more general result, specifically the application of exponentiated gradient updates [7, 8] to quadratic programs.
Harmonising Chorales by Probabilistic Inference
Allan, Moray, Williams, Christopher
We describe how we used a data set of chorale harmonisations composed by Johann Sebastian Bach to train Hidden Markov Models. Using a probabilistic framework allows us to create a harmonisation system which learns from examples, and which can compose new harmonisations. We make a quantitative comparison of our system's harmonisation performance against simpler models, and provide example harmonisations.
Bayesian inference in spiking neurons
We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integrators accumulatingevidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new information, i.e.what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic representation ofprobabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implementing avariant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilistic, andcan be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].
Resolving Perceptual Aliasing In The Presence Of Noisy Sensors
Agents learning to act in a partially observable domain may need to overcome the problem of perceptual aliasing - i.e., different states that appear similar but require different responses. This problem is exacerbated whenthe agent's sensors are noisy, i.e., sensors may produce different observationsin the same state. We show that many well-known reinforcement learning methods designed to deal with perceptual aliasing, suchas Utile Suffix Memory, finite size history windows, eligibility traces, and memory bits, do not handle noisy sensors well. We suggest a new algorithm, Noisy Utile Suffix Memory (NUSM), based on USM, that uses a weighted classification of observed trajectories. We compare NUSM to the above methods and show it to be more robust to noise.
Modeling Conversational Dynamics as a Mixed-Memory Markov Process
Choudhury, Tanzeem, Basu, Sumit
In this work, we quantitatively investigate the ways in which a given person influences the joint turn-taking behavior in a conversation. After collecting an auditory database of social interactions among a group of twenty-three people via wearable sensors (66 hours of data each over two weeks), we apply speech and conversation detection methods to the auditory streams. These methods automatically locate the conversations, determine their participants, and mark which participant was speaking when. We then model the joint turn-taking behavior as a Mixed-Memory Markov Model [1] that combines the statistics of the individual subjects' self-transitions and the partners' cross-transitions. The mixture parameters in this model describe how much each person's individual behavior contributes to the joint turn-taking behavior of the pair.