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 Markov Models


Exponentiated Gradient Algorithms for Large-margin Structured Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of structured classification, where the task is to predict a label y from an input x, and y has meaningful internal structure. Our framework includes supervised training of Markov random fields and weighted context-free grammars as special cases. We describe an algorithm that solves the large-margin optimization problem defined in [12], using an exponential-family (Gibbs distribution) representation of structured objects. The algorithm is efficient--even in cases where the number of labels y is exponential in size--provided that certain expectations under Gibbs distributions can be calculated efficiently. The method for structured labels relies on a more general result, specifically the application of exponentiated gradient updates [7, 8] to quadratic programs.


Harmonising Chorales by Probabilistic Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe how we used a data set of chorale harmonisations composed by Johann Sebastian Bach to train Hidden Markov Models. Using a probabilistic framework allows us to create a harmonisation system which learns from examples, and which can compose new harmonisations. We make a quantitative comparison of our system's harmonisation performance against simpler models, and provide example harmonisations.


Learning first-order Markov models for control

Neural Information Processing Systems

First-order Markov models have been successfully applied to many problems, for example in modeling sequential data using Markov chains, and modeling control problems using the Markov decision processes (MDP) formalism. If a first-order Markov model's parameters are estimated from data, the standard maximum likelihood estimator considers only the first-order (single-step) transitions. But for many problems, the firstorder conditional independence assumptions are not satisfied, and as a result the higher order transition probabilities may be poorly approximated. Motivated by the problem of learning an MDP's parameters for control, we propose an algorithm for learning a first-order Markov model that explicitly takes into account higher order interactions during training. Our algorithm uses an optimization criterion different from maximum likelihood, and allows us to learn models that capture longer range effects, but without giving up the benefits of using first-order Markov models. Our experimental results also show the new algorithm outperforming conventional maximum likelihood estimation in a number of control problems where the MDP's parameters are estimated from data.


Experts in a Markov Decision Process

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider an MDP setting in which the reward function is allowed to change during each time step of play (possibly in an adversarial manner), yet the dynamics remain fixed. Similar to the experts setting, we address the question of how well can an agent do when compared to the reward achieved under the best stationary policy over time. We provide efficient algorithms, which have regret bounds with no dependence on the size of state space. Instead, these bounds depend only on a certain horizon time of the process and logarithmically on the number of actions. We also show that in the case that the dynamics change over time, the problem becomes computationally hard.


Probabilistic Computation in Spiking Populations

Neural Information Processing Systems

As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabilities, adynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates optimally. Thesemodels are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural representation andmanipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations. We illustrate theapproach on a simple random walk example, and apply it to a sensorimotor integration task that provides a particularly compelling example of dynamic probabilistic computation. Bayesian models have been used to explain a gamut of experimental results in tasks which require estimates to be derived from multiple sensory cues.


Incremental Learning for Visual Tracking

Neural Information Processing Systems

Most existing tracking algorithms construct a representation of a target object prior to the tracking task starts, and utilize invariant features to handle appearance variation of the target caused by lighting, pose, and view angle change. In this paper, we present an efficient and effective onlinealgorithm that incrementally learns and adapts a low dimensional eigenspacerepresentation to reflect appearance changes of the target, thereby facilitating the tracking task. Furthermore, our incremental method correctly updates the sample mean and the eigenbasis, whereas existing incremental subspace update methods ignore the fact the sample mean varies over time. The tracking problem is formulated as a state inference problem within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework and a particle filter is incorporated for propagating sample distributions over time. Numerous experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed trackingalgorithm in indoor and outdoor environments where the target objects undergo large pose and lighting changes.


Modeling Conversational Dynamics as a Mixed-Memory Markov Process

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this work, we quantitatively investigate the ways in which a given person influences the joint turn-taking behavior in a conversation. After collecting an auditory database of social interactions among a group of twenty-three people via wearable sensors (66 hours of data each over two weeks), we apply speech and conversation detection methods to the auditory streams. These methods automatically locate the conversations, determine their participants, and mark which participant was speaking when. We then model the joint turn-taking behavior as a Mixed-Memory Markov Model [1] that combines the statistics of the individual subjects' self-transitions and the partners' cross-transitions. The mixture parameters in this model describe how much each person's individual behavior contributes to the joint turn-taking behavior of the pair.


Exponentiated Gradient Algorithms for Large-margin Structured Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of structured classification, where the task is to predict a label y from an input x, and y has meaningful internal structure. Ourframework includes supervised training of Markov random fields and weighted context-free grammars as special cases. We describe an algorithm that solves the large-margin optimization problem defined in [12], using an exponential-family (Gibbs distribution) representation of structured objects. The algorithm is efficient--even in cases where the number of labels y is exponential in size--provided that certain expectations underGibbs distributions can be calculated efficiently. The method for structured labels relies on a more general result, specifically the application ofexponentiated gradient updates [7, 8] to quadratic programs.


Harmonising Chorales by Probabilistic Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Section 2 below gives an overview of the musical background to chorale harmonisation. Section 3 explains how we can create a harmonisation system using Hidden Markov Models. Section 4 examines the system's performance quantitatively and provides example


A Hidden Markov Model for de Novo Peptide Sequencing

Neural Information Processing Systems

De novo Sequencing of peptides is a challenging task in proteome research. Whilethere exist reliable DNAsequencing methods, the highthroughput denovo sequencing of proteins by mass spectrometry is still an open problem. Current approaches suffer from a lack in precision to detect mass peaks in the spectrograms. In this paper we present a novel method for de novo peptide sequencing based on a hidden Markov model. Experiments effectively demonstrate that this new method significantly outperformsstandard approaches in matching quality.