Markov Models
Towards Uniform Implementation of Architectural Diversity
Rosenbloom, Paul S. (University of Southern California)
Multi-representational architectures exploit diversity to yield the breadth of capabilities required for intelligent behavior in the world, but in so doing can sacrifice too much of the complementary benefits of architectural uniformity. The proposal here is to couple the benefits of diversity and uniformity through establishment of a uniform graph-based implementation level for diverse architectures.
Managing Conversation Uncertainty in TutorJ
Cannella, Vincenzo (University of Palermo) | Pirrone, Roberto (University of Palermo)
Uncertainty in natural language dialogue is often treated through stochastic models. Some of the authors already presented TutorJ that is an Intelligent Tutoring System, whose interaction with the user is very intensive, and makes use of both dialogic and graphical modality. When managing the interaction, the system needs to cope with uncertainty due to the understanding of the user's needs and wishes. In this paper we present the extended version of TutorJ, focusing on the new features added to its chatbot module. These features allow to merge deterministic and probabilistic reasoning in dialogue management, and in writing the rules of the system's procedural memory.
Promoting Motivation and Self-Regulated Learning Skills through Social Interactions in Agent-based Learning Environments
Biswas, Gautam (Vanderbilt University) | Jeong, Hogyeong (Vanderbilt University) | Roscoe, Rod (Vanderbilt University) | Sulcer, Brian (Vanderbilt University)
We have developed computer environments that support learning by teaching and the use of self regulated learning (SRL) skills through interactions with virtual agents. More specifically, students teach a computer agent, Betty, and can monitor her progress by asking her questions and getting her to take quizzes. The system provides SRL support via dialog-embedded prompts by Betty, the teachable agent, and Mr. Davis, the mentor agent. Our primary goals have been to support learning in complex science domains and facilitate development of metacognitive skills. More recently, we have also employed sequence analysis schemes and hidden Markov model (HMM) methods for assigning context to and deriving aggregated student behavior sequences from activity data. These techniques allow us to go beyond analyses of individual behaviors, instead examining how these behaviors cohere in larger patterns. We discuss the information derived from these models, and draw inferences on students’ use of self-regulated learning strategies.
Efficient Bayesian analysis of multiple changepoint models with dependence across segments
We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches for models where the parameters are dependent. Under the assumption that the dependence is Markov, we propose an efficient online algorithm for sampling from an approximation to the posterior distribution of the number and position of the changepoints. In a simulation study, we show that the approximation introduced is negligible. We illustrate the power of our approach through fitting piecewise polynomial models to data, under a model which allows for either continuity or discontinuity of the underlying curve at each changepoint. This method is competitive with, or out-performs, other methods for inferring curves from noisy data; and uniquely it allows for inference of the locations of discontinuities in the underlying curve.
An Immune Inspired Approach to Anomaly Detection
Twycross, Jamie, Aickelin, Uwe
The immune system provides a rich metaphor for computer security: anomaly detection that works in nature should work for machines. However, early artificial immune system approaches for computer security had only limited success. Arguably, this was due to these artificial systems being based on too simplistic a view of the immune system. We present here a second generation artificial immune system for process anomaly detection. It improves on earlier systems by having different artificial cell types that process information. Following detailed information about how to build such second generation systems, we find that communication between cells types is key to performance. Through realistic testing and validation we show that second generation artificial immune systems are capable of anomaly detection beyond generic system policies. The paper concludes with a discussion and outline of the next steps in this exciting area of computer security.
Navigation Planning in Probabilistic Roadmaps with Uncertainty
Kneebone, Michael (University of Birmingham) | Dearden, Richard (University of Birmingham)
Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRM) are a commonly used class of algorithms for robot navigation tasks where obstacles are present in the environment. We examine the situation where the obstacle positions are not precisely known. A subset of the edges in the PRM graph may possibly intersect the obstacles, and as the robot traverses the graph it can make noisy observations of these uncertain edges to determine if it can traverse them or not. The problem is to traverse the graph from an initial vertex to a goal without taking a blocked edge, and to do this optimally the robot needs to consider the observations it can make as well as the structure of the graph. In this paper we show how this problem can be represented as a POMDP. We show that while too large to be solved with exact methods, approximate point based methods can provide a good quality solution. While feasible for smaller examples, this approach isn't scalable. By exploiting the structure in the belief space, we can construct an approximate belief-space MDP that can be solved efficiently using recent techniques in MDP planning. We then demonstrate that this gives near optimal results in most cases while achieving an order of magnitude speed-up in policy generation time.
A Human-Aware Robot Task Planner
Cirillo, Marcello (Örebro University) | Karlsson, Lars (Örebro University) | Saffiotti, Alessandro (Örebro University)
The growing presence of household robots in inhabited environments arises the need for new robot task planning techniques. These techniques should take into consideration not only the actions that the robot can perform or unexpected external events, but also the actions performed by a human sharing the same environment, in order to improve the cohabitation of the two agents, e.g., by avoiding undesired situations for the human. In this paper, we present a human-aware planner able to address this problem. This planner supports alternative hypotheses of the human plan, temporal duration for the actions of both the robot and the human, constraints on the interaction between robot and human, partial goal achievement and, most importantly, the possibility to use observations of human actions in the policy generated for the robot. The planner has been tested as a standalone component and in conjunction with our framework for human-robot interaction in a real environment.
Focused Topological Value Iteration
Dai, Peng (University of Washington) | Mausam, (University of Washington) | Weld, Daniel S (University of Washington)
Topological value iteration (TVI) is an effective algorithm for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs) optimally, which (1) divides an MDP into strongly-connected components, and (2) solves these components sequentially. Yet, TVI's usefulness tends to degrade if an MDP has large components, because the cost of the division process isn't offset by gains during solution. This paper presents a new algorithm to solve MDPs optimally, focused topological value iteration (FTVI). FTVI addresses TVI's limitations by restricting its attention to connected components that are relevant for solving the MDP. Specifically, FTVI uses a small amount of heuristic search to eliminate provably sub-optimal actions; this pruning allows FTVI to find smaller connected components, thus running faster. We demonstrate that our new algorithm outperforms TVI by an order of magnitude, averaged across several domains. Surprisingly, FTVI also significantly outperforms popular "heuristically-informed" MDP algorithms such as LAO*, LRTDP, and BRTDP in many domains, sometimes by as much as two orders of magnitude. Finally, we characterize the type of domains where FTVI excels — suggesting a way to an informed choice of solver.
Incremental Policy Generation for Finite-Horizon DEC-POMDPs
Amato, Christopher (University of Massachusetts, Amherst) | Dibangoye, Jilles Steeve (Laval University) | Zilberstein, Shlomo (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
Solving multiagent planning problems modeled as DEC-POMDPs is an important challenge. These models are often solved by using dynamic programming, but the high resource usage of current approaches results in limited scalability. To improve the efficiency of dynamic programming algorithms, we propose a new backup algorithm that is based on a reachability analysis of the state space. This method, which we call incremental policy generation, can be used to produce an optimal solution for any possible initial state or further scalability can be achieved by making use of a known start state. When incorporated into the optimal dynamic programming algorithm, our experiments show that planning horizon can be increased due to a marked reduction in resource consumption. This approach also fits nicely with approximate dynamic programming algorithms. To demonstrate this, we incorporate it into the state-of-the-art PBIP algorithm and show significant performance gains. The results suggest that the performance of other dynamic programming algorithms for DEC-POMDPs could be similarly improved by integrating the incremental policy generation approach.
Minimal Sufficient Explanations for Factored Markov Decision Processes
Khan, Omar Zia (University of Waterloo) | Poupart, Pascal (University of Waterloo) | Black, James P. (University of Waterloo)
Explaining policies of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is complicated due to their probabilistic and sequential nature. We present a technique to explain policies for factored MDP by populating a set of domain-independent templates. We also present a mechanism to determine a minimal set of templates that, viewed together, completely justify the policy. Our explanations can be generated automatically at run-time with no additional effort required from the MDP designer. We demonstrate our technique using the problems of advising undergraduate students in their course selection and assisting people with dementia in completing the task of handwashing. We also evaluate our explanations for course-advising through a user study involving students.