Kalman Filtering is a computational tool with widespread applications in robotics, financial and weather forecasting, environmental engineering and defense. Given observation and state transition models, the Kalman Filter (KF) recursively estimates the state variables of a dynamic system. However, the KF requires a cubic time matrix inversion operation at every timestep which prevents its application in domains with large numbers of state variables. We propose Relational Gaussian Models to represent and model dynamic systems with large numbers of variables efficiently. Furthermore, we devise an exact lifted Kalman Filtering algorithm which takes only linear time in the number of random variables at every timestep. We prove that our algorithm takes linear time in the number of state variables even when individual observations apply to each variable. To our knowledge, this is the first lifted (linear time) algorithm for filtering with continuous dynamic relational models.

In this paper we present a new algorithm for generatively learning the structure of Markov Logic Networks. This algorithm relies on a graph of predicates, which summarizes the links existing between predicates and on relational information between ground atoms in the training database. Candidate clauses are produced by means of a heuristical variabilization technique. According to our first experiments, this approach appears to be promising.

Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (DEC-POMDPs) are used to plan policies for multiple agents that must maximize a joint reward function but do not communicate with each other. The agents act under uncertainty about each other and the environment. This planning task arises in optimization of wireless networks, and other scenarios where communication between agents is restricted by costs or physical limits. DEC-POMDPs are a promising solution, but optimizing policies quickly becomes computationally intractable when problem size grows. Factored DEC-POMDPs allow large problems to be described in compact form, but have the same worst case complexity as non-factored DEC-POMDPs. We propose an efficient optimization algorithm for large factored infinite-horizon DEC-POMDPs. We formulate expectation-maximization based optimization into a new form, where complexity can be kept tractable by factored approximations. Our method performs well, and it can solve problems with more agents and larger state spaces than state of the art DEC-POMDP methods. We give results for factored infinite-horizon DEC-POMDP problems with up to 10 agents.

Monitoring team activity is beneficial when human teams cooperate in the enactment of a joint plan. Monitoring allows teams to maintain awareness of each other's progress within the plan and it enables anticipation of information needs. Humans find this difficult, particularly in time-stressed and uncertain environments. In this paper we introduce a probabilistic model, based on Conditional Random Fields, to automatically recognise the composition of teams and the team activities in relation to a plan. The team composition and activities are recognised incrementally by interpreting a stream of spatio-temporal observations.

Robots must perform tasks efficiently and reliably while acting underuncertainty. One way to achieve efficiency is to give the robot common-sense knowledge about the structure of the world. Reliable robot behaviour can be achieved by modelling the uncertaintyin the world probabilistically. We present a robot system that combines these two approaches and demonstrate the improvements in efficiency and reliability that result. Our first contribution is a probabilistic relational model integrating common-sense knowledge about the world in general, with observations of a particular environment. Our second contribution is a continual planning system which is able to plan in the large problems posed by that model, by automatically switching between decision-theoretic and classical procedures. We evaluate our system on object search tasks in two different real-world indoor environments. By reasoning about the trade-offs between possible courses of action with different informational effects, and exploiting the cues and general structures of those environments, our robot is able to consistently demonstrate efficient and reliable goal-directed behaviour.

This paper addresses one of the key components of the mining process: the geological prediction of natural resources from spatially distributed measurements. We present a novel approach combining undirected graphical models with ensemble classifiers to provide 3D geological models from multiple sensors installed in an autonomous drill rig. Drill sensor measurements used for drilling automation, known as measurement-while-drilling (MWD) data, have the potential to provide an estimate of the geological properties of the rocks being drilled. The proposed method maps MWD parameters to rock types while considering spatial relationships, i.e., associating measurements obtained from neighboring regions. We use a conditional random field with local information provided by boosted decision trees to jointly reason about the rock categories of neighboring measurements. To validate the approach, MWD data was collected from a drill rig operating at an iron ore mine. Graphical models of the 3D structure present in real data sets possess a high number of nodes, edges and cycles, making them intractable for exact inference. We provide a comparison of three approximate inference methods to calculate the most probable distribution of class labels. The empirical results demonstrate the benefits of spatial modeling through graphical models to improve classification performance.

Lifted message passing algorithms exploit repeated structure within a given graphical model to answer queries efficiently. Given evidence, they construct a lifted network of supernodes and superpotentials corresponding to sets of nodes and potentials that are indistinguishable given the evidence. Recently, efficient algorithms were presented for updating the structure of an existing lifted network with incremental changes to the evidence. In the inference stage, however, current algorithms need to construct a separate lifted network for each evidence case and run a modified message passing algorithm on each lifted network separately. Consequently, symmetries across the inference tasks are not exploited. In this paper, we present a novel lifted message passing technique that exploits symmetries across multiple evidence cases. The benefits of this multi-evidence lifted inference are shown for several important AI tasks such as computing personalized PageRanks and Kalman filters via multi-evidence lifted Gaussian belief propagation.

Designing dialog policies for voice-enabled interfaces is a tailoring job that is most often left to natural language processing experts. This job is generally redone for every new dialog task because cross-domain transfer is not possible. For this reason, machine learning methods for dialog policy optimization have been investigated during the last 15 years. Especially, reinforcement learning (RL) is now part of the state of the art in this domain. Standard RL methods require to test more or less random changes in the policy on users to assess them as improvements or degradations. This is called on policy learning. Nevertheless, it can result in system behaviors that are not acceptable by users. Learning algorithms should ideally infer an optimal strategy by observing interactions generated by a non-optimal but acceptable strategy, that is learning off-policy. In this contribution, a sample-efficient, online and off-policy reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to learn an optimal policy from few hundreds of dialogues generated with a very simple handcrafted policy.

Behaviour recognition aims to infer the particular behaviours of the inhabitant in a smart home from a series of sensor readings from around the house. There are many reasons to recognise human behaviours; one being to monitor the elderly or cognitively impaired and detect potentially dangerous behaviours. We view the behaviour recognition problem as the task of mapping the sensory outputs to a sequence of recognised activities. This research focuses on the development of machine learning methods to find an approximation to the mapping between sensor outputs and behaviours. However, learning the mapping raises an important issue, which is that the training data is not necessarily annotated with exemplar behaviours of the inhabitant. This doctoral study takes several steps towards addressing the problem of finding an approximation to this mapping, beginning with separate investigations on current methods proposed in the literature, identifying useful sensory outputs for behaviour recognition, and concluding by proposing two directions: one using supervised learning on annotated sensory stream and one using unsupervised learning on unannotated ones.

Distributed electricity producers, such as small wind farms and solar installations, pose several technical and economic challenges in Smart Grid design. One approach to addressing these challenges is through Broker Agents who buy electricity from distributed producers, and also sell electricity to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. We investigate the learning of pricing strategies for an autonomous Broker Agent to profitably participate in a Tariff Market. We employ Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and reinforcement learning. An important concern with this method is that even simple representations of the problem domain result in very large numbers of states in the MDP formulation because market prices can take nearly arbitrary real values. In this paper, we present the use of derived state space features, computed using statistics on Tariff Market prices and Broker Agent customer portfolios, to obtain a scalable state representation. We also contribute a set of pricing tactics that form building blocks in the learned Broker Agent strategy. We further present a Tariff Market simulation model based on real-world data and anticipated market dynamics. We use this model to obtain experimental results that show the learned strategy performing vastly better than a random strategy and significantly better than two other non-learning strategies.