We introduce the problem of reconstructing a sequence of multidimensional real vectors where some of the data are missing. This problem contains regression and mapping inversion as particular cases where the pattern of missing data is independent of the sequence index. The problem is hard because it involves possibly multivalued mappings at each vector in the sequence, where the missing variables can take more than one value given the present variables; and the set of missing variables can vary from one vector to the next. To solve this problem, we propose an algorithm based on two redundancy assumptions: vector redundancy (the data live in a low-dimensional manifold), so that the present variables constrain the missing ones; and sequence redundancy (e.g. continuity), so that consecutive vectors constrain each other. We capture the low-dimensional nature of the data in a probabilistic way with a joint density model, here the generative topographic mapping, which results in a Gaussian mixture. Candidate reconstructions at each vector are obtained as all the modes of the conditional distribution of missing variables given present variables. The reconstructed sequence is obtained by minimising a global constraint, here the sequence length, by dynamic programming. We present experimental results for a toy problem and for inverse kinematics of a robot arm.

Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents solutions to the three central inference problems for LOHMMs: evaluation, most likely hidden state sequence and parameter estimation. The resulting representation and algorithms are experimentally evaluated on problems from the domain of bioinformatics.

This paper studies the problem of learning diagnostic policies from training examples. A diagnostic policy is a complete description of the decision-making actions of a diagnostician (i.e., tests followed by a diagnostic decision) for all possible combinations of test results. An optimal diagnostic policy is one that minimizes the expected total cost, which is the sum of measurement costs and misdiagnosis costs. In most diagnostic settings, there is a tradeoff between these two kinds of costs. This paper formalizes diagnostic decision making as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The paper introduces a new family of systematic search algorithms based on the AO* algorithm to solve this MDP. To make AO* efficient, the paper describes an admissible heuristic that enables AO* to prune large parts of the search space. The paper also introduces several greedy algorithms including some improvements over previously-published methods. The paper then addresses the question of learning diagnostic policies from examples. When the probabilities of diseases and test results are computed from training data, there is a great danger of overfitting. To reduce overfitting, regularizers are integrated into the search algorithms. Finally, the paper compares the proposed methods on five benchmark diagnostic data sets. The studies show that in most cases the systematic search methods produce better diagnostic policies than the greedy methods. In addition, the studies show that for training sets of realistic size, the systematic search algorithms are practical on todays desktop computers.

This paper extends the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to multi-agent settings by incorporating the notion of agent models into the state space. Agents maintain beliefs over physical states of the environment and over models of other agents, and they use Bayesian updates to maintain their beliefs over time. The solutions map belief states to actions. Models of other agents may include their belief states and are related to agent types considered in games of incomplete information. We express the agents autonomy by postulating that their models are not directly manipulable or observable by other agents. We show that important properties of POMDPs, such as convergence of value iteration, the rate of convergence, and piece-wise linearity and convexity of the value functions carry over to our framework. Our approach complements a more traditional approach to interactive settings which uses Nash equilibria as a solution paradigm. We seek to avoid some of the drawbacks of equilibria which may be non-unique and do not capture off-equilibrium behaviors. We do so at the cost of having to represent, process and continuously revise models of other agents. Since the agents beliefs may be arbitrarily nested, the optimal solutions to decision making problems are only asymptotically computable. However, approximate belief updates and approximately optimal plans are computable. We illustrate our framework using a simple application domain, and we show examples of belief updates and value functions.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form an attractive and principled framework for agent planning under uncertainty. Point-based approximate techniques for POMDPs compute a policy based on a finite set of points collected in advance from the agents belief space. We present a randomized point-based value iteration algorithm called Perseus. The algorithm performs approximate value backup stages, ensuring that in each backup stage the value of each point in the belief set is improved; the key observation is that a single backup may improve the value of many belief points. Contrary to other point-based methods, Perseus backs up only a (randomly selected) subset of points in the belief set, sufficient for improving the value of each belief point in the set. We show how the same idea can be extended to dealing with continuous action spaces. Experimental results show the potential of Perseus in large scale POMDP problems.

We study an approach to policy selection for large relational Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We consider a variant of approximate policy iteration (API) that replaces the usual value-function learning step with a learning step in policy space. This is advantageous in domains where good policies are easier to represent and learn than the corresponding value functions, which is often the case for the relational MDPs we are interested in. In order to apply API to such problems, we introduce a relational policy language and corresponding learner. In addition, we introduce a new bootstrapping routine for goal-based planning domains, based on random walks. Such bootstrapping is necessary for many large relational MDPs, where reward is extremely sparse, as API is ineffective in such domains when initialized with an uninformed policy. Our experiments show that the resulting system is able to find good policies for a number of classical planning domains and their stochastic variants by solving them as extremely large relational MDPs. The experiments also point to some limitations of our approach, suggesting future work.

We describe the version of the GPT planner used in the probabilistic track of the 4th International Planning Competition (IPC-4). This version, called mGPT, solves Markov Decision Processes specified in the PPDDL language by extracting and using different classes of lower bounds along with various heuristic-search algorithms. The lower bounds are extracted from deterministic relaxations where the alternative probabilistic effects of an action are mapped into different, independent, deterministic actions. The heuristic-search algorithms use these lower bounds for focusing the updates and delivering a consistent value function over all states reachable from the initial state and the greedy policy.

In this paper, we propose a novel policy iteration method, called dynamic policy programming (DPP), to estimate the optimal policy in the infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. We prove the finite-iteration and asymptotic l\infty-norm performance-loss bounds for DPP in the presence of approximation/estimation error. The bounds are expressed in terms of the l\infty-norm of the average accumulated error as opposed to the l\infty-norm of the error in the case of the standard approximate value iteration (AVI) and the approximate policy iteration (API). This suggests that DPP can achieve a better performance than AVI and API since it averages out the simulation noise caused by Monte-Carlo sampling throughout the learning process. We examine this theoretical results numerically by com- paring the performance of the approximate variants of DPP with existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods on different problem domains. Our results show that, in all cases, DPP-based algorithms outperform other RL methods by a wide margin.

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs through their probability distributions. We propose a hierarchical EM algorithm that i) clusters a given collection of HMMs into groups of HMMs that are similar, in terms of the distributions they represent, and ii) characterizes each group by a "cluster center", i.e., a novel HMM that is representative for the group. We present several empirical studies that illustrate the benefits of the proposed algorithm.

We consider the problem of fully unsupervised learning of grammatical (part-of-speech) categories from unlabeled text. The standard maximum-likelihood hidden Markov model for this task performs poorly, because of its weak inductive bias and large model capacity. We address this problem by refining the model and modifying the learning objective to control its capacity via para- metric and non-parametric constraints. Our approach enforces word-category association sparsity, adds morphological and orthographic features, and eliminates hard-to-estimate parameters for rare words. We develop an efficient learning algorithm that is not much more computationally intensive than standard training. We also provide an open-source implementation of the algorithm. Our experiments on five diverse languages (Bulgarian, Danish, English, Portuguese, Spanish) achieve significant improvements compared with previous methods for the same task.