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 Markov Models


Revisiting Multi-Agent World Modeling from a Diffusion-Inspired Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

World models have recently attracted growing interest in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) due to their ability to improve sample efficiency for policy learning. However, accurately modeling environments in MARL is challenging due to the exponentially large joint action space and highly uncertain dynamics inherent in multi-agent systems. To address this, we reduce modeling complexity by shifting from jointly modeling the entire state-action transition dynamics to focusing on the state space alone at each timestep through sequential agent modeling. Specifically, our approach enables the model to progressively resolve uncertainty while capturing the structured dependencies among agents, providing a more accurate representation of how agents influence the state. Interestingly, this sequential revelation of agents' actions in a multi-agent system aligns with the reverse process in diffusion models--a class of powerful generative models known for their expressiveness and training stability compared to autoregressive or latent variable models. Leveraging this insight, we develop a flexible and robust world model for MARL using diffusion models. Our method, Diffusion-Inspired Multi-Agent world model (DIMA), achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple multi-agent control benchmarks, significantly outperforming prior world models in terms of final return and sample efficiency, including MAMuJoCo and Bi-DexHands. DIMA establishes a new paradigm for constructing multi-agent world models, advancing the frontier of MARL research. Codes are open-sourced at https://github.com/breez3young/DIMA.


CausalRec: A CausalBoost Attention Model for Sequential Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in correlation-based sequential recommendation systems have demonstrated substantial success. Specifically, the attention-based model outperforms other RNN-based and Markov chains-based models by capturing both short- and long-term dependencies more effectively. However, solely focusing on item co-occurrences overlooks the underlying motivations behind user behaviors, leading to spurious correlations and potentially inaccurate recommendations. To address this limitation, we present a novel framework that integrates causal attention for sequential recommendation, CausalRec. It incorporates a causal discovery block and a CausalBooster. The causal discovery block learns the causal graph in user behavior sequences, and we provide a theory to guarantee the identifiability of the learned causal graph. The CausalBooster utilizes the discovered causal graph to refine the attention mechanism, prioritizing behaviors with causal significance. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets indicate that CausalRec outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, with average improvements of 7.21% in Hit Rate (HR) and 8.65% in Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model to incorporate causality through the attention mechanism in sequential recommendation, demonstrating the value of causality in generating more accurate and reliable recommendations.


Towards Reliable Code-as-Policies: A Neuro-Symbolic Framework for Embodied Task Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled the automatic generation of executable code for task planning and control in embodied agents such as robots, demonstrating the potential of LLM-based embodied intelligence. However, these LLM-based code-as-policies approaches often suffer from limited environmental grounding, particularly in dynamic or partially observable settings, leading to suboptimal task success rates due to incorrect or incomplete code generation. In this work, we propose a neuro-symbolic embodied task planning framework that incorporates explicit symbolic verification and interactive validation processes during code generation. In the validation phase, the framework generates exploratory code that actively interacts with the environment to acquire missing observations while preserving task-relevant states. This integrated process enhances the grounding of generated code, resulting in improved task reliability and success rates in complex environments. We evaluate our framework on RLBench and in real-world settings across dynamic, partially observable scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework improves task success rates by 46.2% over Code-as-Policies baselines and attains over 86.8% executability of task-relevant actions, thereby enhancing the reliability of task planning in dynamic environments.


Confounding Robust Deep Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key task in Artificial Intelligence is learning effective policies for controlling agents in unknown environments to optimize performance measures. Off-policy learning methods, like Q-learning, allow learners to make optimal decisions based on past experiences. This paper studies off-policy learning from biased data in complex and high-dimensional domains where \emph{unobserved confounding} cannot be ruled out a priori. Building on the well-celebrated Deep Q-Network (DQN), we propose a novel deep reinforcement learning algorithm robust to confounding biases in observed data. Specifically, our algorithm attempts to find a safe policy for the worst-case environment compatible with the observations. We apply our method to twelve confounded Atari games, and find that it consistently dominates the standard DQN in all games where the observed input to the behavioral and target policies mismatch and unobserved confounders exist.


ESCORT: Efficient Stein-variational and Sliced Consistency-Optimized Temporal Belief Representation for POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced Consistency-Optimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.


Aircraft Collision Avoidance Systems: Technological Challenges and Solutions on the Path to Regulatory Acceptance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aircraft collision avoidance systems is critical to modern aviation. These systems are designed to predict potential collisions between aircraft and recommend appropriate avoidance actions. Creating effective collision avoidance systems requires solutions to a variety of technical challenges related to surveillance, decision making, and validation. These challenges have sparked significant research and development efforts over the past several decades that have resulted in a variety of proposed solutions. This article provides an overview of these challenges and solutions with an emphasis on those that have been put through a rigorous validation process and accepted by regulatory bodies. The challenges posed by the collision avoidance problem are often present in other domains, and aircraft collision avoidance systems can serve as case studies that provide valuable insights for a wide range of safety-critical systems.


Online Learning for Dynamic Vickrey-Clarke-Groves Mechanism in Unknown Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of online dynamic mechanism design for sequential auctions in unknown environments, where the underlying market and, thus, the bidders' values vary over time as interactions between the seller and the bidders progress. We model the sequential auctions as an infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision process (MDP). In each round, the seller determines an allocation and sets a payment for each bidder, while each bidder receives a private reward and submits a sealed bid to the seller. The state, which represents the underlying market, evolves according to an unknown transition kernel and the seller's allocation policy without episodic resets. We first extend the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism to sequential auctions, thereby obtaining a dynamic counterpart that preserves the desired properties: efficiency, truthfulness, and individual rationality. We then focus on the online setting and develop a reinforcement learning algorithm for the seller to learn the underlying MDP and implement a mechanism that closely resembles the dynamic VCG mechanism. We show that the learned mechanism approximately satisfies efficiency, truthfulness, and individual rationality and achieves guaranteed performance in terms of various notions of regret.


Learning Decentralized Routing Policies via Graph Attention-based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Lunar Delay-Tolerant Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract-- We present a fully decentralized routing framework for multi-robot exploration missions operating under the constraints of a Lunar Delay-T olerant Network (LDTN). In this setting, autonomous rovers must relay collected data to a lander under intermittent connectivity and unknown mobility patterns. We formulate the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Problem (POMDP) and propose a Graph Attention-based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (GA T - MARL) policy that performs Centralized Training, Decentralized Execution (CTDE). Our method relies only on local observations and does not require global topology updates or packet replication, unlike classical approaches such as shortest path and controlled flooding-based algorithms. Through Monte Carlo simulations in randomized exploration environments, GA T -MARL provides higher delivery rates, no duplications, and fewer packet losses, and is able to leverage short-term mobility forecasts; offering a scalable solution for future space robotic systems for planetary exploration, as demonstrated by successful generalization to larger rover teams. The renewed interest in planetary and lunar surface exploration has accelerated the development of autonomous multi-robot systems.


Streaming Federated Learning with Markovian Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) is now recognized as a key framework for communication-efficient collaborative learning. Most theoretical and empirical studies, however, rely on the assumption that clients have access to pre-collected data sets, with limited investigation into scenarios where clients continuously collect data. In many real-world applications, particularly when data is generated by physical or biological processes, client data streams are often modeled by non-stationary Markov processes. Unlike standard i.i.d. sampling, the performance of FL with Markovian data streams remains poorly understood due to the statistical dependencies between client samples over time. In this paper, we investigate whether FL can still support collaborative learning with Markovian data streams. Specifically, we analyze the performance of Minibatch SGD, Local SGD, and a variant of Local SGD with momentum. We answer affirmatively under standard assumptions and smooth non-convex client objectives: the sample complexity is proportional to the inverse of the number of clients with a communication complexity comparable to the i.i.d. scenario. However, the sample complexity for Markovian data streams remains higher than for i.i.d. sampling.


Reinforcement Learning and Consumption-Savings Behavior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can explain two puzzling empirical patterns in household consumption behavior during economic downturns. I develop a model where agents use Q-learning with neural network approximation to make consumption-savings decisions under income uncertainty, departing from standard rational expectations assumptions. The model replicates two key findings from recent literature: (1) unemployed households with previously low liquid assets exhibit substantially higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of stimulus transfers compared to high-asset households (0.50 vs 0.34), even when neither group faces borrowing constraints, consistent with Ganong et al. (2024); and (2) households with more past unemployment experiences maintain persistently lower consumption levels after controlling for current economic conditions, a "scarring" effect documented by Malmendier and Shen (2024). Unlike existing explanations based on belief updating about income risk or ex-ante heterogeneity, the reinforcement learning mechanism generates both higher MPCs and lower consumption levels simultaneously through value function approximation errors that evolve with experience. Simulation results closely match the empirical estimates, suggesting that adaptive learning through reinforcement learning provides a unifying framework for understanding how past experiences shape current consumption behavior beyond what current economic conditions would predict.