We consider unsupervised estimation of mixtures of discrete graphical models, where the class variable corresponding to the mixture components is hidden and each mixture component over the observed variables can have a potentially different Markov graph structure and parameters. We propose a novel approach for estimating the mixture components, and our output is a tree-mixture model which serves as a good approximation to the underlying graphical model mixture. Our method is efficient when the union graph, which is the union of the Markov graphs of the mixture components, has sparse vertex separators between any pair of observed variables. This includes tree mixtures and mixtures of bounded degree graphs. For such models, we prove that our method correctly recovers the union graph structure and the tree structures corresponding to maximum-likelihood tree approximations of the mixture components. The sample and computational complexities of our method scale as $\poly(p, r)$, for an $r$-component mixture of $p$-variate graphical models. We further extend our results to the case when the union graph has sparse local separators between any pair of observed variables, such as mixtures of locally tree-like graphs, and the mixture components are in the regime of correlation decay.

We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the symmetries of graphical models. Second, we introduce orbital Markov chains, a novel family of Markov chains leveraging model symmetries to reduce mixing times. We establish an insightful connection between model symmetries and rapid mixing of orbital Markov chains. Thus, we present the first lifted MCMC algorithm for probabilistic graphical models. Both analytical and empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the approach.

While learning the maximum likelihood value of parameters of an undirected graphical model is hard, modelling the posterior distribution over parameters given data is harder. Yet, undirected models are ubiquitous in computer vision and text modelling (e.g. conditional random fields). But where Bayesian approaches for directed models have been very successful, a proper Bayesian treatment of undirected models in still in its infant stages. We propose a new method for approximating the posterior of the parameters given data based on the Laplace approximation. This approximation requires the computation of the covariance matrix over features which we compute using the linear response approximation based in turn on loopy belief propagation. We develop the theory for conditional and 'unconditional' random fields with or without hidden variables. In the conditional setting we introduce a new variant of bagging suitable for structured domains. Here we run the loopy max-product algorithm on a 'super-graph' composed of graphs for individual models sampled from the posterior and connected by constraints. Experiments on real world data validate the proposed methods.

It is said that genes that cluster with similar expression-- that is, are co-expressed--serve similar functional roles in a process (see, for example, Eisen et al. 1998). Bioin-formaticians have more recently had access to sets of time-series measurements of genes' expression over the duration of an experiment, and have desired therefore to learn not just co-expression, but causal relationships that may help elucidate co-regulation as well. Two problematic issues hamper practical methods for clustering gene expression time course data: first, if deriving a model-based clustering metric, it is often unclear what the appropriate model complexity should be; second, the current clustering algorithms available cannot handle, and therefore disregard, the temporal information. This usually occurs when constructing a metric for the distance between any two such genes. The common practice for an experiment having T measurements of a gene's expression over time is to consider the expression as positioned in a T -dimensional space, and to perform (at worse spherical metric) clustering in that space. The result is that the clustering algorithm is invariant to arbitrary permutations of the time points, which is highly undesirable since we would like to take into account the correlations between all the genes' expression at nearby or adjacent time points.

The past decade has seen substantial work on the use of non-negative matrix factorization and its probabilistic counterparts for audio source separation. Although able to capture audio spectral structure well, these models neglect the non-stationarity and temporal dynamics that are important properties of audio. The recently proposed non-negative factorial hidden Markov model (N-FHMM) introduces a temporal dimension and improves source separation performance. However, the factorial nature of this model makes the complexity of inference exponential in the number of sound sources. Here, we present a Bayesian variant of the N-FHMM suited to an efficient variational inference algorithm, whose complexity is linear in the number of sound sources. Our algorithm performs comparably to exact inference in the original N-FHMM but is significantly faster. In typical configurations of the N-FHMM, our method achieves around a 30x increase in speed.

We consider the problem of learning the optimal action-value function in the discounted-reward Markov decision processes (MDPs). We prove a new PAC bound on the sample-complexity of model-based value iteration algorithm in the presence of the generative model, which indicates that for an MDP with N state-action pairs and the discount factor \gamma\in[0,1) only O(N\log(N/\delta)/((1-\gamma)^3\epsilon^2)) samples are required to find an \epsilon-optimal estimation of the action-value function with the probability 1-\delta. We also prove a matching lower bound of \Theta (N\log(N/\delta)/((1-\gamma)^3\epsilon^2)) on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal action-value function by every RL algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first matching result on the sample complexity of estimating the optimal (action-) value function in which the upper bound matches the lower bound of RL in terms of N, \epsilon, \delta and 1/(1-\gamma). Also, both our lower bound and our upper bound significantly improve on the state-of-the-art in terms of 1/(1-\gamma).

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) encodes prior knowledge of the world in a model and represents uncertainty in model parameters by maintaining a probability distribution over them. This paper presents Monte Carlo BRL (MC-BRL), a simple and general approach to BRL. MC-BRL samples a priori a finite set of hypotheses for the model parameter values and forms a discrete partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) whose state space is a cross product of the state space for the reinforcement learning task and the sampled model parameter space. The POMDP does not require conjugate distributions for belief representation, as earlier works do, and can be solved relatively easily with point-based approximation algorithms. MC-BRL naturally handles both fully and partially observable worlds. Theoretical and experimental results show that the discrete POMDP approximates the underlying BRL task well with guaranteed performance.

We examine the problem of learning a probabilistic model for melody directly from musical sequences belonging to the same genre. This is a challenging task as one needs to capture not only the rich temporal structure evident in music, but also the complex statistical dependencies among different music components. To address this problem we introduce the Variable-gram Topic Model, which couples the latent topic formalism with a systematic model for contextual information. We evaluate the model on next-step prediction. Additionally, we present a novel way of model evaluation, where we directly compare model samples with data sequences using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy of string kernels, to assess how close is the model distribution to the data distribution. We show that the model has the highest performance under both evaluation measures when compared to LDA, the Topic Bigram and related non-topic models.

Traditional approaches to ranking in web search follow the paradigm of rank-by-score: a learned function gives each query-URL combination an absolute score and URLs are ranked according to this score. This paradigm ensures that if the score of one URL is better than another then one will always be ranked higher than the other. Scoring contradicts prior work in behavioral economics that showed that users' preferences between two items depend not only on the items but also on the presented alternatives. Thus, for the same query, users' preference between items A and B depends on the presence/absence of item C. We propose a new model of ranking, the Random Shopper Model, that allows and explains such behavior. In this model, each feature is viewed as a Markov chain over the items to be ranked, and the goal is to find a weighting of the features that best reflects their importance. We show that our model can be learned under the empirical risk minimization framework, and give an efficient learning algorithm. Experiments on commerce search logs demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms scoring-based approaches including regression and listwise ranking.

The contractive auto-encoder learns a representation of the input data that captures the local manifold structure around each data point, through the leading singular vectors of the Jacobian of the transformation from input to representation. The corresponding singular values specify how much local variation is plausible in directions associated with the corresponding singular vectors, while remaining in a high-density region of the input space. This paper proposes a procedure for generating samples that are consistent with the local structure captured by a contractive auto-encoder. The associated stochastic process defines a distribution from which one can sample, and which experimentally appears to converge quickly and mix well between modes, compared to Restricted Boltzmann Machines and Deep Belief Networks. The intuitions behind this procedure can also be used to train the second layer of contraction that pools lower-level features and learns to be invariant to the local directions of variation discovered in the first layer. We show that this can help learn and represent invariances present in the data and improve classification error.