The purpose of this paper is twofold. On one side, we present a general framework for Bayesian optimization and we compare it with some related fields in active learning and Bayesian numerical analysis. On the other hand, Bayesian optimization and related problems (bandits, sequential experimental design) are highly dependent on the surrogate model that is selected. However, there is no clear standard in the literature. Thus, we present a fast and flexible toolbox that allows to test and combine different models and criteria with little effort. It includes most of the state-of-the-art contributions, algorithms and models. Its speed also removes part of the stigma that Bayesian optimization methods are only good for "expensive functions". The software is free and it can be used in many operating systems and computer languages.

Cognitive radio networks (CRNs) are networks of nodes equipped with cognitive radios that can optimize performance by adapting to network conditions. While cognitive radio networks (CRN) are envisioned as intelligent networks, relatively little research has focused on the network level functionality of CRNs. Although various routing protocols, incorporating varying degrees of adaptiveness, have been proposed for CRNs, it is imperative for the long term success of CRNs that the design of cognitive routing protocols be pursued by the research community. Cognitive routing protocols are envisioned as routing protocols that fully and seamless incorporate AI-based techniques into their design. In this paper, we provide a self-contained tutorial on various AI and machine-learning techniques that have been, or can be, used for developing cognitive routing protocols. We also survey the application of various classes of AI techniques to CRNs in general, and to the problem of routing in particular. We discuss various decision making techniques and learning techniques from AI and document their current and potential applications to the problem of routing in CRNs. We also highlight the various inference, reasoning, modeling, and learning sub tasks that a cognitive routing protocol must solve. Finally, open research issues and future directions of work are identified.

There is a large amount of interest in understanding users of social media in order to predict their behavior in this space. Despite this interest, user predictability in social media is not well-understood. To examine this question, we consider a network of fifteen thousand users on Twitter over a seven week period. We apply two contrasting modeling paradigms: computational mechanics and echo state networks. Both methods attempt to model the behavior of users on the basis of their past behavior. We demonstrate that the behavior of users on Twitter can be well-modeled as processes with self-feedback. We find that the two modeling approaches perform very similarly for most users, but that they differ in performance on a small subset of the users. By exploring the properties of these performance-differentiated users, we highlight the challenges faced in applying predictive models to dynamic social data.

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the rewards. We consider two types of path constraints: (i) quantitative constraint defines the set of paths where the payoff is at least a given threshold {\lambda} in (0, 1]; and (ii) qualitative constraint which is a special case of quantitative constraint with {\lambda} = 1. We consider the computation of the almost-sure winning set, where the controller needs to ensure that the path constraint is satisfied with probability 1. Our main results for qualitative path constraint are as follows: (i) the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is EXPTIME-complete; and (ii) the problem of deciding the existence of an infinite-memory controller is undecidable. For quantitative path constraint we show that the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is undecidable.

The Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (Dec-POMDP) is a powerful model for multi-agent planning under uncertainty, but its applicability is hindered by its high complexity -- solving Dec-POMDPs optimally is NEXP-hard. Recently, Kumar et al. introduced the Value Factorization (VF) framework, which exploits decomposable value functions that can be factored into subfunctions. This framework has been shown to be a generalization of several models that leverage sparse agent interactions such as TI-Dec-MDPs, ND-POMDPs and TD-POMDPs. Existing algorithms for these models assume that the interaction graph of the problem is given. In this paper, we introduce three algorithms to automatically generate interaction graphs for models within the VF framework and establish lower and upper bounds on the expected reward of an optimal joint policy. We illustrate experimentally the benefits of these techniques for sensor placement in a decentralized tracking application.

We present a bimodal method for online planning in partially observable multiagent settings as formalized by a finitely-nested interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP). An agent planning in an environment shared with another updates beliefs both over the physical state and the other agents' models. In problems where we do not observe other's action explicitly but must infer it from sensing its effect on the state, observations are more informative about the other when the belief over the state space has reduced uncertainty. For typical, uncertain initial beliefs, we model the agent as if it were acting alone and utilize fast online planning for POMDPs. Subsequently, the agent switches to online planning in multiagent settings. We maintain tight lower and upper bounds at each step, and switch over when the difference between them reduces to less than ε.

We study map-matching, the problem of estimating the route that is traveled by a vehicle, where the points observed with the Global Positioning System are available. A state-of-the-art approach for this problem is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We propose a particular transition probability between latent road segments by the use of the number of turns in addition to the travel distance between the latent road segments. We use inverse reinforcement learning to estimate the importance of the number of turns relative to the travel distance. This estimated importance is incorporated in the transition probability of the HMM. We show, through numerical experiments, that the error of map-matching can be reduced substantially with the proposed transition probability.

We address two significant drawbacks of state-of-the-art solvers of decentralized POMDPs (DEC-POMDPs): the reliance on complete knowledge of the model and limited scalability as the complexity of the domain grows. We extend a recently proposed approach for solving DEC-POMDPs via a reduction to the maximum likelihood problem, which in turn can be solved using EM. We introduce a model-free version of this approach that employs Monte-Carlo EM(MCEM). While a naive implementation of MCEM is inadequate in multi-agent settings, we introduce several improvements in sampling that produce high-quality results on a variety of DEC-POMDP benchmarks, including large problems with thousands of agents.

We analyze the foundations of cyclic causal models for discrete variables, and compare structural equation models (SEMs) to an alternative semantics as the equilibrium (stationary) distribution of a Markov chain. We show under general conditions, discrete cyclic SEMs cannot have independent noise; even in the simplest case, cyclic structural equation models imply constraints on the noise. We give a formalization of an alternative Markov chain equilibrium semantics which requires not only the causal graph, but also a sample order. We show how the resulting equilibrium is a function of the sample ordering, both theoretically and empirically.

The recent proliferation of smart-phones and other wearable devices has lead to a surge of new mobile applications. Partially observable Markov decision processes provide a natural framework to design applications that continuously make decisions based on noisy sensor measurements. However, given the limited battery life, there is a need to minimize the amount of online computation. This can be achieved by compiling a policy into a finite state controller since there is no need for belief monitoring or online search. In this paper, we propose a new branch and bound technique to search for a good controller. In contrast to many existing algorithms for controllers, our search technique is not subject to local optima. We also show how to reduce the amount of search by avoiding the enumeration of isomorphic controllers and by taking advantage of suitable upper and lower bounds. The approach is demonstrated on several benchmark problems as well as a smart-phone application to assist persons with Alzheimer's to wayfind.