Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) has been drawing great interest in recent years for planning under uncertainty. One of the key challenges is the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. To address this, we introduce a novel online planning algorithm for large POMDPs using Thompson sampling based MCTS that balances between cumulative and simple regrets. The proposed algorithm  Dirichlet-Dirichlet-NormalGamma based Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (D 2 NG-POMCP) treats the accumulated reward of performing an action from a belief state in the MCTS search tree as a random variable following an unknown distribution with hidden parameters. Bayesian method is used to model and infer the posterior distribution of these parameters by choosing the conjugate prior in the form of a combination of two Dirichlet and one NormalGamma distributions. Thompson sampling is exploited to guide the action selection in the search tree. Experimental results confirmed that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches on several common benchmark problems.

We describe an approximate dynamic programming algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes represented in factored form. Two complementary forms of approximation are used to simplify a piecewise linear and convex value function, where each linear facet of the function is represented compactly by an algebraic decision diagram. ln one form of approximation, the degree of state abstraction is increased by aggregating states with similar values. In the second form of approximation, the value function is simplified by removing linear facets that contribute marginally to value. We derive an error bound that applies to both forms of approximation. Experimental results show that this approach improves the performance of dynamic programming and extends the range of problems it can solve.

We investigate the use of a simple, discriminative reranking approach to plan recognition in an abductive setting. In contrast to recent work, which attempts to model abductive plan recognition using various formalisms that integrate logic and graphical models (such as Markov Logic Networks or Bayesian Logic Programs), we instead advocate a simpler, more flexible approach in which plans found through an abductive beam-search are discriminatively scored based on arbitrary features. We show that this approach performs well even with relatively few positive training examples, and we obtain state-of-the-art results on two abductive plan recognition datasets, outperforming more complicated systems.

We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs or observations in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMMs). The uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its output, is represented by a set of probability mass functions instead of a single such mass function. We consider as best estimates for state sequences the maximal sequences for the posterior joint state model conditioned on the observed output sequence, associated with a gain function that is the indicator of the state sequence. This corresponds to and generalises finding the state sequence with the highest posterior probability in (precise-probabilistic) HMMs, thereby making our algorithm a generalisation of the one by Viterbi. We argue that the computational complexity of our algorithm is at worst quadratic in the length of the iHMM, cubic in the number of states, and essentially linear in the number of maximal state sequences. An important feature of our imprecise approach is that there may be more than one maximal sequence, typically in those instances where its precise-probabilistic counterpart is sensitive to the choice of prior. For binary iHMMs, we investigate experimentally how the number of maximal state sequences depends on the model parameters. We also present an application in optical character recognition, demonstrating that our algorithm can be usefully applied to robustify the inferences made by its precise-probabilistic counterpart.

Kernel methods have revolutionized the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. Their success, however, critically depends on the choice of kernel parameters. Using Gaussian process (GP) classification as a working example, this paper focuses on Bayesian inference of covariance (kernel) parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The motivation is that, compared to standard optimization of kernel parameters, they have been systematically demonstrated to be superior in quantifying uncertainty in predictions. Recently, the Pseudo-Marginal MCMC approach has been proposed as a practical inference tool for GP models. In particular, it amounts in replacing the analytically intractable marginal likelihood by an unbiased estimate obtainable by approximate methods and importance sampling. After discussing the potential drawbacks in employing importance sampling, this paper proposes the application of annealed importance sampling. The results empirically demonstrate that compared to importance sampling, annealed importance sampling can reduce the variance of the estimate of the marginal likelihood exponentially in the number of data at a computational cost that scales only polynomially. The results on real data demonstrate that employing annealed importance sampling in the Pseudo-Marginal MCMC approach represents a step forward in the development of fully automated exact inference engines for GP models.

We present a framework for learning human user models from joint-action demonstrations that enables the robot to compute a robust policy for a collaborative task with a human. The learning takes place completely automatically, without any human intervention. First, we describe the clustering of demonstrated action sequences into different human types using an unsupervised learning algorithm. These demonstrated sequences are also used by the robot to learn a reward function that is representative for each type, through the employment of an inverse reinforcement learning algorithm. The learned model is then used as part of a Mixed Observability Markov Decision Process formulation, wherein the human type is a partially observable variable. With this framework, we can infer, either offline or online, the human type of a new user that was not included in the training set, and can compute a policy for the robot that will be aligned to the preference of this new user and will be robust to deviations of the human actions from prior demonstrations. Finally we validate the approach using data collected in human subject experiments, and conduct proof-of-concept demonstrations in which a person performs a collaborative task with a small industrial robot.

There is a growing interest in intelligent assistants for a variety of applications from sorting email to helping people with disabilities to do their daily chores. In this paper, we formulate the problem of intelligent assistance in a decision-theoretic framework, and present both theoretical and empirical results. We first introduce a class of POMDPs called hidden-goal MDPs (HGMDPs), which formalizes the problem of interactively assisting an agent whose goal is hidden and whose actions are observable. In spite of its restricted nature, we show that optimal action selection for HGMDPs is PSPACE-complete even for deterministic dynamics. We then introduce a more restricted model called helper action MDPs (HAMDPs), which are sufficient for modeling many real-world problems. We show classes of HAMDPs for which efficient algorithms are possible. More interestingly, for general HAMDPs we show that a simple myopic policy achieves a near optimal regret, compared to an oracle assistant that knows the agent's goal. We then introduce more sophisticated versions of this policy for the general case of HGMDPs that we combine with a novel approach for quickly learning about the agent being assisted. We evaluate our approach in two game-like computer environments where human subjects perform tasks, and in a real-world domain of providing assistance during folder navigation in a computer desktop environment. The results show that in all three domains the framework results in an assistant that substantially reduces user effort with only modest computation.

In this paper we consider the problem of online stochastic optimization of a locally smooth function under bandit feedback. We introduce the high-confidence tree (HCT) algorithm, a novel any-time $\mathcal{X}$-armed bandit algorithm, and derive regret bounds matching the performance of existing state-of-the-art in terms of dependency on number of steps and smoothness factor. The main advantage of HCT is that it handles the challenging case of correlated rewards, whereas existing methods require that the reward-generating process of each arm is an identically and independent distributed (iid) random process. HCT also improves on the state-of-the-art in terms of its memory requirement as well as requiring a weaker smoothness assumption on the mean-reward function in compare to the previous anytime algorithms. Finally, we discuss how HCT can be applied to the problem of policy search in reinforcement learning and we report preliminary empirical results.

We consider the infinite-horizon discounted optimal control problem formalized by Markov Decision Processes. We focus on several approximate variations of the Policy Iteration algorithm: Approximate Policy Iteration, Conservative Policy Iteration (CPI), a natural adaptation of the Policy Search by Dynamic Programming algorithm to the infinite-horizon case (PSDP$_\infty$), and the recently proposed Non-Stationary Policy iteration (NSPI(m)). For all algorithms, we describe performance bounds, and make a comparison by paying a particular attention to the concentrability constants involved, the number of iterations and the memory required. Our analysis highlights the following points: 1) The performance guarantee of CPI can be arbitrarily better than that of API/API($\alpha$), but this comes at the cost of a relative---exponential in $\frac{1}{\epsilon}$---increase of the number of iterations. 2) PSDP$_\infty$ enjoys the best of both worlds: its performance guarantee is similar to that of CPI, but within a number of iterations similar to that of API. 3) Contrary to API that requires a constant memory, the memory needed by CPI and PSDP$_\infty$ is proportional to their number of iterations, which may be problematic when the discount factor $\gamma$ is close to 1 or the approximation error $\epsilon$ is close to $0$; we show that the NSPI(m) algorithm allows to make an overall trade-off between memory and performance. Simulations with these schemes confirm our analysis.

Translation rule selection is a task of selecting appropriate translation rules for an ambiguous source-language segment. As translation ambiguities are pervasive in statistical machine translation, we introduce two topic-based models for translation rule selection which incorporates global topic information into translation disambiguation. We associate each synchronous translation rule with source- and target-side topic distributions.With these topic distributions, we propose a topic dissimilarity model to select desirable (less dissimilar) rules by imposing penalties for rules with a large value of dissimilarity of their topic distributions to those of given documents. In order to encourage the use of non-topic specific translation rules, we also present a topic sensitivity model to balance translation rule selection between generic rules and topic-specific rules. Furthermore, we project target-side topic distributions onto the source-side topic model space so that we can benefit from topic information of both the source and target language. We integrate the proposed topic dissimilarity and sensitivity model into hierarchical phrase-based machine translation for synchronous translation rule selection. Experiments show that our topic-based translation rule selection model can substantially improve translation quality.