We reduce a broad class of machine learning problems, usually addressed by EM or sampling, to the problem of finding the $k$ extremal rays spanning the conical hull of a data point set. These $k$ ``anchors'' lead to a global solution and a more interpretable model that can even outperform EM and sampling on generalization error. To find the $k$ anchors, we propose a novel divide-and-conquer learning scheme ``DCA'' that distributes the problem to $\mathcal O(k\log k)$ same-type sub-problems on different low-D random hyperplanes, each can be solved by any solver. For the 2D sub-problem, we present a non-iterative solver that only needs to compute an array of cosine values and its max/min entries. DCA also provides a faster subroutine for other methods to check whether a point is covered in a conical hull, which improves algorithm design in multiple dimensions and brings significant speedup to learning. We apply our method to GMM, HMM, LDA, NMF and subspace clustering, then show its competitive performance and scalability over other methods on rich datasets.

Large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are usually solved using Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) methods such as Approximate Value Iteration (AVI) or Approximate Policy Iteration (API). The main contribution of this paper is to show that, alternatively, the optimal state-action value function can be estimated using Difference of Convex functions (DC) Programming. To do so, we study the minimization of a norm of the Optimal Bellman Residual (OBR) $T^*Q-Q$, where $T^*$ is the so-called optimal Bellman operator. Controlling this residual allows controlling the distance to the optimal action-value function, and we show that minimizing an empirical norm of the OBR is consistant in the Vapnik sense. Finally, we frame this optimization problem as a DC program. That allows envisioning using the large related literature on DC Programming to address the Reinforcement Leaning (RL) problem.

To master a discipline such as algebra or physics, students must acquire a set of cognitive skills. Traditionally, educators and domain experts manually determine what these skills are and then select practice exercises to hone a particular skill. We propose a technique that uses student performance data to automatically discover the skills needed in a discipline. The technique assigns a latent skill to each exercise such that a student's expected accuracy on a sequence of same-skill exercises improves monotonically with practice. Rather than discarding the skills identified by experts, our technique incorporates a nonparametric prior over the exercise-skill assignments that is based on the expert-provided skills and a weighted Chinese restaurant process. We test our technique on datasets from five different intelligent tutoring systems designed for students ranging in age from middle school through college. We obtain two surprising results. First, in three of the five datasets, the skills inferred by our technique support significantly improved predictions of student performance over the expert-provided skills. Second, the expert-provided skills have little value: our technique predicts student performance nearly as well when it ignores the domain expertise as when it attempts to leverage it. We discuss explanations for these surprising results and also the relationship of our skill-discovery technique to alternative approaches.

In this paper, we propose a learning approach for the Mixture of Hidden Markov Models (MHMM) based on the Method of Moments (MoM). Computational advantages of MoM make MHMM learning amenable for large data sets. It is not possible to directly learn an MHMM with existing learning approaches, mainly due to a permutation ambiguity in the estimation process. We show that it is possible to resolve this ambiguity using the spectral properties of a global transition matrix even in the presence of estimation noise. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on synthetic and real data.

We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. The field of tracking is broad and possesses many applications, particularly in radar/sonar [1], robotics [14], and computer vision [3]. Consider the following problem: A radar is tracking a flying object, referred to as atarget, using measurements of range, bearing, and elevation; it may also have Doppler measurements of radial velocity.

We consider the problem of learning to optimize an unknown Markov decision process (MDP). We show that, if the MDP can be parameterized within some known function class, we can obtain regret bounds that scale with the dimensionality, rather than cardinality, of the system. We characterize this dependence explicitly as $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d_K d_E T})$ where $T$ is time elapsed, $d_K$ is the Kolmogorov dimension and $d_E$ is the \emph{eluder dimension}. These represent the first unified regret bounds for model-based reinforcement learning and provide state of the art guarantees in several important settings. Moreover, we present a simple and computationally efficient algorithm \emph{posterior sampling for reinforcement learning} (PSRL) that satisfies these bounds.

We describe how to use robust Markov decision processes for value function approximation with state aggregation. The robustness serves to reduce the sensitivity to the approximation error of sub-optimal policies in comparison to classical methods such as fitted value iteration. This results in reducing the bounds on the gamma-discounted infinite horizon performance loss by a factor of 1/(1-gamma) while preserving polynomial-time computational complexity. Our experimental results show that using the robust representation can significantly improve the solution quality with minimal additional computational cost.

We consider the problem of learning the canonical parameters specifying an undirected graphical model (Markov random field) from the mean parameters. For graphical models representing a minimal exponential family, the canonical parameters are uniquely determined by the mean parameters, so the problem is feasible in principle. The goal of this paper is to investigate the computational feasibility of this statistical task. Our main result shows that parameter estimation is in general intractable: no algorithm can learn the canonical parameters of a generic pair-wise binary graphical model from the mean parameters in time bounded by a polynomial in the number of variables (unless RP = NP). Indeed, such a result has been believed to be true (see the monograph by Wainwright and Jordan) but no proof was known. Our proof gives a polynomial time reduction from approximating the partition function of the hard-core model, known to be hard, to learning approximate parameters. Our reduction entails showing that the marginal polytope boundary has an inherent repulsive property, which validates an optimization procedure over the polytope that does not use any knowledge of its structure (as required by the ellipsoid method and others).

The local field potential (LFP) is a source of information about the broad patterns of brain activity, and the frequencies present in these time-series measurements are often highly correlated between regions. It is believed that these regions may jointly constitute a ``brain state,'' relating to cognition and behavior. An infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) is proposed to model the evolution of brain states, based on electrophysiological LFP data measured at multiple brain regions. A brain state influences the spectral content of each region in the measured LFP. A new state-dependent tensor factorization is employed across brain regions, and the spectral properties of the LFPs are characterized in terms of Gaussian processes (GPs). The LFPs are modeled as a mixture of GPs, with state- and region-dependent mixture weights, and with the spectral content of the data encoded in GP spectral mixture covariance kernels. The model is able to estimate the number of brain states and the number of mixture components in the mixture of GPs. A new variational Bayesian split-merge algorithm is employed for inference. The model infers state changes as a function of external covariates in two novel electrophysiological datasets, using LFP data recorded simultaneously from multiple brain regions in mice; the results are validated and interpreted by subject-matter experts.

In this paper, we prove that every multivariate polynomial with even degree can be decomposed into a sum of convex and concave polynomials. Motivated by this property, we exploit the concave-convex procedure to perform inference on continuous Markov random fields with polynomial potentials. In particular, we show that the concave-convex decomposition of polynomials can be expressed as a sum-of-squares optimization, which can be efficiently solved via semidefinite programming. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of 3D reconstruction, shape from shading and image denoising, and show that our approach significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of efficiency as well as the quality of the retrieved solution.