Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimators (NADEs) have recently been shown as successful alternatives for modeling high dimensional multimodal distributions. One issue associated with NADEs is that they rely on a particular order of factorization for $P(\mathbf{x})$. This issue has been recently addressed by a variant of NADE called Orderless NADEs and its deeper version, Deep Orderless NADE. Orderless NADEs are trained based on a criterion that stochastically maximizes $P(\mathbf{x})$ with all possible orders of factorizations. Unfortunately, ancestral sampling from deep NADE is very expensive, corresponding to running through a neural net separately predicting each of the visible variables given some others. This work makes a connection between this criterion and the training criterion for Generative Stochastic Networks (GSNs). It shows that training NADEs in this way also trains a GSN, which defines a Markov chain associated with the NADE model. Based on this connection, we show an alternative way to sample from a trained Orderless NADE that allows to trade-off computing time and quality of the samples: a 3 to 10-fold speedup (taking into account the waste due to correlations between consecutive samples of the chain) can be obtained without noticeably reducing the quality of the samples. This is achieved using a novel sampling procedure for GSNs called annealed GSN sampling, similar to tempering methods that combines fast mixing (obtained thanks to steps at high noise levels) with accurate samples (obtained thanks to steps at low noise levels).

When a transition probability matrix is represented as the product of two stochastic matrices, one can swap the factors of the multiplication to obtain another transition matrix that retains some fundamental characteristics of the original. Since the derived matrix can be much smaller than its precursor, this property can be exploited to create a compact version of a Markov decision process (MDP), and hence to reduce the computational cost of dynamic programming. Building on this idea, this paper presents an approximate policy iteration algorithm called policy iteration based on stochastic factorization, or PISF for short. In terms of computational complexity, PISF replaces standard policy iteration's cubic dependence on the size of the MDP with a function that grows only linearly with the number of states in the model. The proposed algorithm also enjoys nice theoretical properties: it always terminates after a finite number of iterations and returns a decision policy whose performance only depends on the quality of the stochastic factorization. In particular, if the approximation error in the factorization is sufficiently small, PISF computes the optimal value function of the MDP. The paper also discusses practical ways of factoring an MDP and illustrates the usefulness of the proposed algorithm with an application involving a large-scale decision problem of real economical interest.

In the big data era, scalability has become a crucial requirement for any useful computational model. Probabilistic graphical models are very useful for mining and discovering data insights, but they are not scalable enough to be suitable for big data problems. Bayesian Networks particularly demonstrate this limitation when their data is represented using few random variables while each random variable has a massive set of values. With hierarchical data - data that is arranged in a treelike structure with several levels - one would expect to see hundreds of thousands or millions of values distributed over even just a small number of levels. When modeling this kind of hierarchical data across large data sets, Bayesian networks become infeasible for representing the probability distributions for the following reasons: i) Each level represents a single random variable with hundreds of thousands of values, ii) The number of levels is usually small, so there are also few random variables, and iii) The structure of the network is predefined since the dependency is modeled top-down from each parent to each of its child nodes, so the network would contain a single linear path for the random variables from each parent to each child node. In this paper we present a scalable probabilistic graphical model to overcome these limitations for massive hierarchical data. We believe the proposed model will lead to an easily-scalable, more readable, and expressive implementation for problems that require probabilistic-based solutions for massive amounts of hierarchical data. We successfully applied this model to solve two different challenging probabilistic-based problems on massive hierarchical data sets for different domains, namely, bioinformatics and latent semantic discovery over search logs.

This paper presents studies on a deterministic annealing algorithm based on quantum annealing for variational Bayes (QAVB) inference, which can be seen as an extension of the simulated annealing for variational Bayes (SAVB) inference. QAVB is as easy as SAVB to implement. Experiments revealed QAVB finds a better local optimum than SAVB in terms of the variational free energy in latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA).

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for automatically learning the (sparse) connectivity structure of Markov Random Fields. These methods are mostly based on L1-regularized optimization which has a number of disadvantages such as the inability to assess model uncertainty and expensive crossvalidation to find the optimal regularization parameter. Moreover, the model's predictive performance may degrade dramatically with a suboptimal value of the regularization parameter (which is sometimes desirable to induce sparseness). We propose a fully Bayesian approach based on a "spike and slab" prior (similar to L0 regularization) that does not suffer from these shortcomings. We develop an approximate MCMC method combining Langevin dynamics and reversible jump MCMC to conduct inference in this model. Experiments show that the proposed model learns a good combination of the structure and parameter values without the need for separate hyper-parameter tuning. Moreover, the model's predictive performance is much more robust than L1-based methods with hyper-parameter settings that induce highly sparse model structures.

We present a new method for nonlinear prediction of discrete random sequences under minimal structural assumptions. We give a mathematical construction for optimal predictors of such processes, in the form of hidden Markov models. We then describe an algorithm, CSSR (Causal-State Splitting Reconstruction), which approximates the ideal predictor from data. We discuss the reliability of CSSR, its data requirements, and its performance in simulations. Finally, we compare our approach to existing methods using variablelength Markov models and cross-validated hidden Markov models, and show theoretically and experimentally that our method delivers results superior to the former and at least comparable to the latter.

We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the rewards. We consider two types of path constraints: (i) quantitative constraint defines the set of paths where the payoff is at least a given threshold lambda_1 in (0,1]; and (ii) qualitative constraint which is a special case of quantitative constraint with lambda_1=1. We consider the computation of the almost-sure winning set, where the controller needs to ensure that the path constraint is satisfied with probability 1. Our main results for qualitative path constraint are as follows: (i) the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is EXPTIME-complete; and (ii) the problem of deciding the existence of an infinite-memory controller is undecidable. For quantitative path constraint we show that the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is undecidable.

Sensory inference under conditions of uncertainty is a major problem in both machine learning and computational neuroscience. An important but poorly understood aspect of sensory processing is the role of active sensing. Here, we present a Bayes-optimal inference and control framework for active sensing, C-DAC (Context-Dependent Active Controller). Unlike previously proposed algorithms that optimize abstract statistical objectives such as information maximization (Infomax) [Butko & Movellan, 2010] or one-step look-ahead accuracy [Najemnik & Geisler, 2005], our active sensing model directly minimizes a combination of behavioral costs, such as temporal delay, response error, and effort. We simulate these algorithms on a simple visual search task to illustrate scenarios in which context-sensitivity is particularly beneficial and optimization with respect to generic statistical objectives particularly inadequate. Motivated by the geometric properties of the C-DAC policy, we present both parametric and non-parametric approximations, which retain context-sensitivity while significantly reducing computational complexity. These approximations enable us to investigate the more complex problem involving peripheral vision, and we notice that the difference between C-DAC and statistical policies becomes even more evident in this scenario.

We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the symmetries of graphical models. Second, we introduce orbital Markov chains, a novel family of Markov chains leveraging model symmetries to reduce mixing times. We establish an insightful connection between model symmetries and rapid mixing of orbital Markov chains. Thus, we present the first lifted MCMC algorithm for probabilistic graphical models. Both analytical and empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the approach.

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that these probabilities are known or believed to belong to, and by allowing the probabilities to vary over such sets. This leads to the definition of an imprecise Markov chain. We show that the time evolution of such a system can be studied very efficiently using so-called lower and upper expectations. We also study how the inferred credal set about the state at time n evolves as n->infinity: under quite unrestrictive conditions, it converges to a uniquely invariant credal set, regardless of the credal set given for the initial state. This leads to a non-trivial generalisation of the classical Perron-Frobenius Theorem to imprecise Markov chains.