Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Markov Models


LiveTradeBench: Seeking Real-World Alpha with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.


Learning Natural and Robust Hexapod Locomotion over Complex Terrains via Motion Priors based on Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Multi-legged robots offer enhanced stability to navigate complex terrains with their multiple legs interacting with the environment. However, how to effectively coordinate the multiple legs in a larger action exploration space to generate natural and robust movements is a key issue. In this paper, we introduce a motion prior-based approach, successfully applying deep reinforcement learning algorithms to a real hexapod robot. We generate a dataset of optimized motion priors, and train an adversarial discriminator based on the priors to guide the hexapod robot to learn natural gaits. The learned policy is then successfully transferred to a real hexapod robot, and demonstrate natural gait patterns and remarkable robustness without visual information in complex terrains. This is the first time that a reinforcement learning controller has been used to achieve complex terrain walking on a real hexapod robot.


A Foundational Theory of Quantitative Abstraction: Adjunctions, Duality, and Logic for Probabilistic Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The analysis and control of stochastic dynamical systems rely on probabilistic models such as (continuous-space) Markov decision processes, but large or continuous state spaces make exact analysis intractable and call for principled quantitative abstraction. This work develops a unified theory of such abstraction by integrating category theory, coalgebra, quantitative logic, and optimal transport, centred on a canonical $\varepsilon$-quotient of the behavioral pseudo-metric with a universal property: among all abstractions that collapse behavioral differences below $\varepsilon$, it is the most detailed, and every other abstraction achieving the same discounted value-loss guarantee factors uniquely through it. Categorically, a quotient functor $Q_\varepsilon$ from a category of probabilistic systems to a category of metric specifications admits, via the Special Adjoint Functor Theorem, a right adjoint $R_\varepsilon$, yielding an adjunction $Q_\varepsilon \dashv R_\varepsilon$ that formalizes a duality between abstraction and realization; logically, a quantitative modal $μ$-calculus with separate reward and transition modalities is shown, for a broad class of systems, to be expressively complete for the behavioral pseudo-metric, with a countable fully abstract fragment suitable for computation. The theory is developed coalgebraically over Polish spaces and the Giry monad and validated on finite-state models using optimal-transport solvers, with experiments corroborating the predicted contraction properties and structural stability and aligning with the theoretical value-loss bounds, thereby providing a rigorous foundation for quantitative state abstraction and representation learning in probabilistic domains.


Decentralized Aerial Manipulation of a Cable-Suspended Load using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents the first decentralized method to enable real-world 6-DoF manipulation of a cable-suspended load using a team of Micro-Aerial Vehicles (MAVs). Our method leverages multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to train an outer-loop control policy for each MAV. Unlike state-of-the-art controllers that utilize a centralized scheme, our policy does not require global states, inter-MAV communications, nor neighboring MAV information. Instead, agents communicate implicitly through load pose observations alone, which enables high scalability and flexibility. It also significantly reduces computing costs during inference time, enabling onboard deployment of the policy. In addition, we introduce a new action space design for the MAVs using linear acceleration and body rates. This choice, combined with a robust low-level controller, enables reliable sim-to-real transfer despite significant uncertainties caused by cable tension during dynamic 3D motion. We validate our method in various real-world experiments, including full-pose control under load model uncertainties, showing setpoint tracking performance comparable to the state-of-the-art centralized method. We also demonstrate cooperation amongst agents with heterogeneous control policies, and robustness to the complete in-flight loss of one MAV. Videos of experiments: https://autonomousrobots.nl/paper_websites/aerial-manipulation-marl


Context-Aware Regularization with Markovian Integration for Attention-Based Nucleotide Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformers have revolutionized nucleotide sequence analysis, yet capturing long-range dependencies remains challenging. Recent studies show that autoregressive transformers often exhibit Markovian behavior by relying on fixed-length context windows for next-token prediction. However, standard self-attention mechanisms are computationally inefficient for long sequences due to their quadratic complexity and do not explicitly enforce global transition consistency. We introduce CARMANIA (Context-Aware Regularization with Markovian Integration for Attention-Based Nucleotide Analysis), a self-supervised pretraining framework that augments next-token (NT) prediction with a transition-matrix (TM) loss. The TM loss aligns predicted token transitions with empirically derived n-gram statistics from each input sequence, encouraging the model to capture higher-order dependencies beyond local context. This integration enables CARMANIA to learn organism-specific sequence structures that reflect both evolutionary constraints and functional organization. We evaluate CARMANIA across diverse genomic tasks, including regulatory element prediction, functional gene classification, taxonomic inference, antimicrobial resistance detection, and biosynthetic gene cluster classification. CARMANIA outperforms the previous best long-context model by at least 7 percent, matches state-of-the-art on shorter sequences (exceeding prior results on 20 out of 40 tasks while running approximately 2.5 times faster), and shows particularly strong improvements on enhancer and housekeeping gene classification tasks, including up to a 34 percent absolute gain in Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for enhancer prediction. The TM loss boosts accuracy in 33 of 40 tasks, especially where local motifs or regulatory patterns drive prediction.


When Is Diversity Rewarded in Cooperative Multi-Agent Learning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The success of teams in robotics, nature, and society often depends on the division of labor among diverse specialists; however, a principled explanation for when such diversity surpasses a homogeneous team is still missing. Focusing on multi-agent task allocation problems, we study this question from the perspective of reward design: what kinds of objectives are best suited for heterogeneous teams? We first consider an instantaneous, non-spatial setting where the global reward is built by two generalized aggregation operators: an inner operator that maps the $N$ agents' effort allocations on individual tasks to a task score, and an outer operator that merges the $M$ task scores into the global team reward. We prove that the curvature of these operators determines whether heterogeneity can increase reward, and that for broad reward families this collapses to a simple convexity test. Next, we ask what incentivizes heterogeneity to emerge when embodied, time-extended agents must learn an effort allocation policy. To study heterogeneity in such settings, we use multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) as our computational paradigm, and introduce Heterogeneity Gain Parameter Search (HetGPS), a gradient-based algorithm that optimizes the parameter space of underspecified MARL environments to find scenarios where heterogeneity is advantageous. Across different environments, we show that HetGPS rediscovers the reward regimes predicted by our theory to maximize the advantage of heterogeneity, both validating HetGPS and connecting our theoretical insights to reward design in MARL. Together, these results help us understand when behavioral diversity delivers a measurable benefit.


From Solo to Symphony: Orchestrating Multi-Agent Collaboration with Single-Agent Demos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Training a team of agents from scratch in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is highly inefficient, much like asking beginners to play a symphony together without first practicing solo. Existing methods, such as offline or transferable MARL, can ease this burden, but they still rely on costly multi-agent data, which often becomes the bottleneck. In contrast, solo experiences are far easier to obtain in many important scenarios, e.g., collaborative coding, household cooperation, and search-and-rescue. To unlock their potential, we propose Solo-to-Collaborative RL (SoCo), a framework that transfers solo knowledge into cooperative learning. SoCo first pretrains a shared solo policy from solo demonstrations, then adapts it for cooperation during multi-agent training through a policy fusion mechanism that combines an MoE-like gating selector and an action editor. Experiments across diverse cooperative tasks show that SoCo significantly boosts the training efficiency and performance of backbone algorithms. These results demonstrate that solo demonstrations provide a scalable and effective complement to multi-agent data, making cooperative learning more practical and broadly applicable.


Learning Interactive World Model for Object-Centric Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agents that understand objects and their interactions can learn policies that are more robust and transferable. However, most object-centric RL methods factor state by individual objects while leaving interactions implicit. We introduce the Factored Interactive Object-Centric World Model (FIOC-WM), a unified framework that learns structured representations of both objects and their interactions within a world model. FIOC-WM captures environment dynamics with disentangled and modular representations of object interactions, improving sample efficiency and generalization for policy learning. Concretely, FIOC-WM first learns object-centric latents and an interaction structure directly from pixels, leveraging pre-trained vision encoders. The learned world model then decomposes tasks into composable interaction primitives, and a hierarchical policy is trained on top: a high level selects the type and order of interactions, while a low level executes them. On simulated robotic and embodied-AI benchmarks, FIOC-WM improves policy-learning sample efficiency and generalization over world-model baselines, indicating that explicit, modular interaction learning is crucial for robust control.


Adaptive Cooperative Transmission Design for Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications via Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Next-generation wireless communication systems must support ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC) service for mission-critical applications. Meeting stringent URLLC requirements is challenging, especially for two-hop cooperative communication. In this paper, we develop an adaptive transmission design for a two-hop relaying communication system. Each hop transmission adaptively configures its transmission parameters separately, including numerology, mini-slot size, and modulation and coding scheme, for reliable packet transmission within a strict latency constraint. We formulate the hop-specific transceiver configuration as a Markov decision process (MDP) and propose a dual-agent reinforcement learning-based cooperative latency-aware transmission (DRL-CoLA) algorithm to learn latency-aware transmission policies in a distributed manner. Simulation results verify that the proposed algorithm achieves the near-optimal reliability while satisfying strict latency requirements.


Natural Building Blocks for Structured World Models: Theory, Evidence, and Scaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The field of world modeling is fragmented, with researchers developing bespoke architectures that rarely build upon each other. We propose a framework that specifies the natural building blocks for structured world models based on the fundamental stochastic processes that any world model must capture: discrete processes (logic, symbols) and continuous processes (physics, dynamics); the world model is then defined by the hierarchical composition of these building blocks. We examine Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (sLDS) as natural building blocks for discrete and continuous modeling--which become partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and controlled sLDS when augmented with actions. This modular approach supports both passive modeling (generation, forecasting) and active control (planning, decision-making) within the same architecture. We avoid the combinatorial explosion of traditional structure learning by largely fixing the causal architecture and searching over only four depth parameters. We review practical expressiveness through multimodal generative modeling (passive) and planning from pixels (active), with performance competitive to neural approaches while maintaining interpretability. The core outstanding challenge is scalable joint structure-parameter learning; current methods finesse this by cleverly growing structure and parameters incrementally, but are limited in their scalability. If solved, these natural building blocks could provide foundational infrastructure for world modeling, analogous to how standardized layers enabled progress in deep learning.