The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its observation process is often addressed via the Baum-Welch algorithm, which is known to be susceptible to local optima. In this paper, we first give a general characterization of the basin of attraction associated with any global optimum of the population likelihood. By exploiting this characterization, we provide non-asymptotic finite sample guarantees on the Baum-Welch updates, guaranteeing geometric convergence to a small ball of radius on the order of the minimax rate around a global optimum. As a concrete example, we prove a linear rate of convergence for a hidden Markov mixture of two isotropic Gaussians given a suitable mean separation and an initialization within a ball of large radius around (one of) the true parameters. To our knowledge, these are the first rigorous local convergence guarantees to global optima for the Baum-Welch algorithm in a setting where the likelihood function is nonconvex. We complement our theoretical results with thorough numerical simulations studying the convergence of the Baum-Welch algorithm and illustrating the accuracy of our predictions.

Vehicles are becoming more and more connected, this opens up a larger attack surface which not only affects the passengers inside vehicles, but also people around them. These vulnerabilities exist because modern systems are built on the comparatively less secure and old CAN bus framework which lacks even basic authentication. Since a new protocol can only help future vehicles and not older vehicles, our approach tries to solve the issue as a data analytics problem and use machine learning techniques to secure cars. We develop a Hidden Markov Model to detect anomalous states from real data collected from vehicles. Using this model, while a vehicle is in operation, we are able to detect and issue alerts. Our model could be integrated as a plug-n-play device in all new and old cars.

This paper discusses real-time alignment of audio signals of music performance to the corresponding score (a.k.a. score following) which can handle tempo changes, errors and arbitrary repeats and/or skips (repeats/skips) in performances. This type of score following is particularly useful in automatic accompaniment for practices and rehearsals, where errors and repeats/skips are often made. Simple extensions of the algorithms previously proposed in the literature are not applicable in these situations for scores of practical length due to the problem of large computational complexity. To cope with this problem, we present two hidden Markov models of monophonic performance with errors and arbitrary repeats/skips, and derive efficient score-following algorithms with an assumption that the prior probability distributions of score positions before and after repeats/skips are independent from each other. We confirmed real-time operation of the algorithms with music scores of practical length (around 10000 notes) on a modern laptop and their tracking ability to the input performance within 0.7 s on average after repeats/skips in clarinet performance data. Further improvements and extension for polyphonic signals are also discussed.

Latent Variable Models (LVMs) are a large family of machine learning models providing a principled and effective way to extract underlying patterns, structure and knowledge from observed data. Due to the dramatic growth of volume and complexity of data, several new challenges have emerged and cannot be effectively addressed by existing LVMs: (1) How to capture long-tail patterns that carry crucial information when the popularity of patterns is distributed in a power-law fashion? (2) How to reduce model complexity and computational cost without compromising the modeling power of LVMs? (3) How to improve the interpretability and reduce the redundancy of discovered patterns? To addresses the three challenges discussed above, we develop a novel regularization technique for LVMs, which controls the geometry of the latent space during learning to enable the learned latent components of LVMs to be diverse in the sense that they are favored to be mutually different from each other, to accomplish long-tail coverage, low redundancy, and better interpretability. We propose a mutual angular regularizer (MAR) to encourage the components in LVMs to have larger mutual angles. The MAR is non-convex and non-smooth, entailing great challenges for optimization. To cope with this issue, we derive a smooth lower bound of the MAR and optimize the lower bound instead. We show that the monotonicity of the lower bound is closely aligned with the MAR to qualify the lower bound as a desirable surrogate of the MAR. Using neural network (NN) as an instance, we analyze how the MAR affects the generalization performance of NN. On two popular latent variable models --- restricted Boltzmann machine and distance metric learning, we demonstrate that MAR can effectively capture long-tail patterns, reduce model complexity without sacrificing expressivity and improve interpretability.

We define two algorithms for propagating information in classification problems with pairwise relationships. The algorithms are based on contraction maps and are related to non-linear diffusion and random walks on graphs. The approach is also related to message passing algorithms, including belief propagation and mean field methods. The algorithms we describe are guaranteed to converge on graphs with arbitrary topology. Moreover they always converge to a unique fixed point, independent of initialization. We prove that the fixed points of the algorithms under consideration define lower-bounds on the energy function and the max-marginals of a Markov random field. The theoretical results also illustrate a relationship between message passing algorithms and value iteration for an infinite horizon Markov decision process. We illustrate the practical application of the algorithms under study with numerical experiments in image restoration, stereo depth estimation and binary classification on a grid.

Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on information-theoretic ideas. We provide a conceptual justification for using the free energy functional as the objective function for characterizing bounded-rational decisions. This functional possesses three crucial properties: it controls the size of the solution space; it has Monte Carlo planners that are exact, yet bypass the need for exhaustive search; and it captures model uncertainty arising from lack of evidence or from interacting with other agents having unknown intentions. We discuss the single-step decision-making case, and show how to extend it to sequential decisions using equivalence transformations. This extension yields a very general class of decision problems that encompass classical decision rules (e.g.

We consider the \mnk{classical} problem of a controller activating (or sampling) sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by unknown distributions. Over some time horizon, at each time $n = 1, 2, \ldots$, the controller wishes to select a population to sample, with the goal of sampling from a population that optimizes some "score" function of its distribution, e.g., maximizing the expected sum of outcomes or minimizing variability. We define a class of \textit{Uniformly Fast (UF)} sampling policies and show, under mild regularity conditions, that there is an asymptotic lower bound for the expected total number of sub-optimal population activations. Then, we provide sufficient conditions under which a UCB policy is UF and asymptotically optimal, since it attains this lower bound. Explicit solutions are provided for a number of examples of interest, including general score functionals on unconstrained Pareto distributions (of potentially infinite mean), and uniform distributions of unknown support. Additional results on bandits of Normal distributions are also provided.

We develop asymptotically optimal policies for the multi armed bandit (MAB), problem, under a cost constraint. This model is applicable in situations where each sample (or activation) from a population (bandit) incurs a known bandit dependent cost. Successive samples from each population are iid random variables with unknown distribution. The objective is to design a feasible policy for deciding from which population to sample from, so as to maximize the expected sum of outcomes of $n$ total samples or equivalently to minimize the regret due to lack on information on sample distributions, For this problem we consider the class of feasible uniformly fast (f-UF) convergent policies, that satisfy the cost constraint sample-path wise. We first establish a necessary asymptotic lower bound for the rate of increase of the regret function of f-UF policies. Then we construct a class of f-UF policies and provide conditions under which they are asymptotically optimal within the class of f-UF policies, achieving this asymptotic lower bound. At the end we provide the explicit form of such policies for the case in which the unknown distributions are Normal with unknown means and known variances.

When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many applications in biology, like motif discovery and genome annotation. In this paper, we present a flexible frame- work for jointly modeling both latent sequence features and the functional mapping that relates the summary response variables to the hidden state sequence. The algorithm is com- patible with a rich set of mapping functions. Results show that the availability of additional continuous response vari- ables can simultaneously improve the annotation of the se- quential observations and yield good prediction performance in both synthetic data and real-world datasets.

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the $d$-Sphere and a large-scale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research.