ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to investigate how noisy and incomplete observations can be integrated in the process of building a reduced-order model. This problematic arises in many scientific domains where there exists a need for accurate low-order descriptions of highly-complex phenomena, which can not be directly and/or deterministically observed. Within this context, the paper proposes a probabilistic framework for the construction of "POD-Galerkin" reduced-order models. Assuming a hidden Markov chain, the inference integrates the uncertainty of the hidden states relying on their posterior distribution. Simulations show the benefits obtained by exploiting the proposed framework. Index Terms-- Reduced-order modeling, POD-Galerkin projection, hidden Markov model, uncertainty, optic-flow. 1. INTRODUCTION In many fields of Sciences, one is interested in studying the spatiotemporal evolution of a state variable characterized by a differential equation.

The Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) can be used either as classifiers or as generative models. The quality of the generative RBM is measured through the average log-likelihood on test data. Due to the high computational complexity of evaluating the partition function, exact calculation of test log-likelihood is very difficult. In recent years some estimation methods are suggested for approximate computation of test log-likelihood. In this paper we present an empirical comparison of the main estimation methods, namely, the AIS algorithm for estimating the partition function, the CSL method for directly estimating the log-likelihood, and the RAISE algorithm that combines these two ideas. We use the MNIST data set to learn the RBM and then compare these methods for estimating the test log-likelihood.

This paper is about the asymptotic behavior of the Kalman filter [11]. The Kalman-Bucy filter merges predictions from a trusted model of the dynamics of the system with incoming measurements in order to get an accurate, real-time estimate of the unknown internal state of the system. The estimation relies on the computation of a positive semidefinite matrix P, the covariance of the estimation error. The difference equation verified by P is a discrete-time algebraic Riccati equation. Kalman showed that, for a linear time-invariant system, under detectability conditions, the Riccati equation converges to a fixed point, which is unique under certain stabilizability conditions ([10], see also [9]). The classical convergence analysis requires several steps, showing that the error covariance is upper bounded, that, with zero initial value, it is monotone increasing, so that it admits a limit, and then proving that the corresponding filter is stable and that the limit is the same for all initial covariances. In [4] Bougerol proposed a more geometric convergence analysis by showing that the discrete-time Riccati iteration is a contraction for the Riemannian metric associated to the cone of positive definite matrices. Other authors elaborated along these lines (see e.g.

This paper considers a Bayesian view for estimating a sub-network in a Markov random field. The sub-network corresponds to the Markov blanket of a set of query variables, where the set of potential neighbours here is big. We factorize the posterior such that the Markov blanket is conditionally independent of the network of the potential neighbours. By exploiting this blockwise decoupling, we derive analytic expressions for posterior conditionals. Subsequently, we develop an inference scheme which makes use of the factorization. As a result, estimation of a sub-network is possible without inferring an entire network. Since the resulting Gibbs sampler scales linearly with the number of variables, it can handle relatively large neighbourhoods. The proposed scheme results in faster convergence and superior mixing of the Markov chain than existing Bayesian network estimation techniques.

In this paper, a Bayesian inference technique based on Taylor series approximation of the logarithm of the likelihood function is presented. The proposed approximation is devised for the case, where the prior distribution belongs to the exponential family of distributions. The logarithm of the likelihood function is linearized with respect to the sufficient statistic of the prior distribution in exponential family such that the posterior obtains the same exponential family form as the prior. Similarities between the proposed method and the extended Kalman filter for nonlinear filtering are illustrated. Furthermore, an extended target measurement update for target models where the target extent is represented by a random matrix having an inverse Wishart distribution is derived. The approximate update covers the important case where the spread of measurement is due to the target extent as well as the measurement noise in the sensor.

Humans can learn the use of language through physical interaction with their environment and semiotic communication with other people. It is very important to obtain a computational understanding of how humans can form a symbol system and obtain semiotic skills through their autonomous mental development. Recently, many studies have been conducted on the construction of robotic systems and machine-learning methods that can learn the use of language through embodied multimodal interaction with their environment and other systems. Understanding human social interactions and developing a robot that can smoothly communicate with human users in the long term, requires an understanding of the dynamics of symbol systems and is crucially important. The embodied cognition and social interaction of participants gradually change a symbol system in a constructive manner. In this paper, we introduce a field of research called symbol emergence in robotics (SER). SER is a constructive approach towards an emergent symbol system. The emergent symbol system is socially self-organized through both semiotic communications and physical interactions with autonomous cognitive developmental agents, i.e., humans and developmental robots. Specifically, we describe some state-of-art research topics concerning SER, e.g., multimodal categorization, word discovery, and a double articulation analysis, that enable a robot to obtain words and their embodied meanings from raw sensory--motor information, including visual information, haptic information, auditory information, and acoustic speech signals, in a totally unsupervised manner. Finally, we suggest future directions of research in SER.

We propose a particularly structured Boltzmann machine, which we refer to as a dynamic Boltzmann machine (DyBM), as a stochastic model of a multi-dimensional time-series. The DyBM can have infinitely many layers of units but allows exact and efficient inference and learning when its parameters have a proposed structure. This proposed structure is motivated by postulates and observations, from biological neural networks, that the synaptic weight is strengthened or weakened, depending on the timing of spikes (i.e., spike-timing dependent plasticity or STDP). We show that the learning rule of updating the parameters of the DyBM in the direction of maximizing the likelihood of given time-series can be interpreted as STDP with long term potentiation and long term depression. The learning rule has a guarantee of convergence and can be performed in a distributed matter (i.e., local in space) with limited memory (i.e., local in time).

For large matrix factorisation problems, we develop a distributed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) that we call Parallel SGLD (PSGLD). PSGLD has very favourable scaling properties with increasing data size and is comparable in terms of computational requirements to optimisation methods based on stochastic gradient descent. PSGLD achieves high performance by exploiting the conditional independence structure of the MF models to sub-sample data in a systematic manner as to allow paralleli-sation and distributed computation. We provide a convergence proof of the algorithm and verify its superior performance on various architectures such as Graphics Processing Units, shared memory multi-core systems and multi-computer clusters.

Consider the problem of a controller sampling sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by random variables $X^i_k$, $ i = 1,\ldots , N,$ and $k = 1, 2, \ldots$; where $X^i_k$ denotes the outcome from population $i$ the $k^{th}$ time it is sampled. It is assumed that for each fixed $i$, $\{ X^i_k \}_{k \geq 1}$ is a sequence of i.i.d. uniform random variables over some interval $[a_i, b_i]$, with the support (i.e., $a_i, b_i$) unknown to the controller. The objective is to have a policy $\pi$ for deciding, based on available data, from which of the $N$ populations to sample from at any time $n=1,2,\ldots$ so as to maximize the expected sum of outcomes of $n$ samples or equivalently to minimize the regret due to lack on information of the parameters $\{ a_i \}$ and $\{ b_i \}$. In this paper, we present a simple inflated sample mean (ISM) type policy that is asymptotically optimal in the sense of its regret achieving the asymptotic lower bound of Burnetas and Katehakis (1996). Additionally, finite horizon regret bounds are given.

IllinoisSL is a Java library for learning structured prediction models. It supports structured Support Vector Machines and structured Perceptron. The library consists of a core learning module and several applications, which can be executed from command-lines. Documentation is provided to guide users. In Comparison to other structured learning libraries, IllinoisSL is efficient, general, and easy to use.