We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions approximating the local beliefs at each note of the MRF. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that it provides more accurate results than the Particle Belief Propagation (PBP) algorithm of Ihler and McAllester (2009) at a fraction of the computational cost and is additionally more robust empirically. The computational complexity of our algorithm at each iteration is quadratic in the number of particles. We also propose an accelerated implementation with sub-quadratic computational complexity which still provides consistent estimates of the loopy BP marginal distributions and performs almost as well as the original procedure.

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models. We demonstrate that the learning problem consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem in terms of an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three approaches from the continuous time Markov chain literature to the CT-HMM domain. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer's disease dataset.

By making personalized suggestions, a recommender system is playing a crucial role in improving the engagement of users in modern web-services. However, most recommendation algorithms do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users. Two central but less explored questions are how to recommend the most desirable item \emph{at the right moment}, and how to predict \emph{the next returning time} of a user to a service. To address these questions, we propose a novel framework which connects self-exciting point processes and low-rank models to capture the recurrent temporal patterns in a large collection of user-item consumption pairs. We show that the parameters of the model can be estimated via a convex optimization, and furthermore, we develop an efficient algorithm that maintains $O(1 / \epsilon)$ convergence rate, scales up to problems with millions of user-item pairs and thousands of millions of temporal events. Compared to other state-of-the-arts in both synthetic and real datasets, our model achieves superb predictive performance in the two time-sensitive recommendation questions. Finally, we point out that our formulation can incorporate other extra context information of users, such as profile, textual and spatial features.

Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P\'{o}lya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.

Recently, there has been growing interest in lifting MAP inference algorithms for Markov logic networks (MLNs). A key advantage of these lifted algorithms is that they have much smaller computational complexity than propositional algorithms when symmetries are present in the MLN and these symmetries can be detected using lifted inference rules. Unfortunately, lifted inference rules are sound but not complete and can often miss many symmetries. This is problematic because when symmetries cannot be exploited, lifted inference algorithms ground the MLN, and search for solutions in the much larger propositional space. In this paper, we present a novel approach, which cleverly introduces new symmetries at the time of grounding. Our main idea is to partition the ground atoms and force the inference algorithm to treat all atoms in each part as indistinguishable. We show that by systematically and carefully refining (and growing) the partitions, we can build advanced any-time and any-space MAP inference algorithms. Our experiments on several real-world datasets clearly show that our new algorithm is superior to previous approaches and often finds useful symmetries in the search space that existing lifted inference rules are unable to detect.

In this paper, we explore the inclusion of latent random variables into the hidden state of a recurrent neural network (RNN) by combining the elements of the variational autoencoder. We argue that through the use of high-level latent random variables, the variational RNN (VRNN) can model the kind of variability observed in highly structured sequential data such as natural speech. We empirically evaluate the proposed model against other related sequential models on four speech datasets and one handwriting dataset. Our results show the important roles that latent random variables can play in the RNN dynamics.

Deep learning presents notorious computational challenges. These challenges include, but are not limited to, the non-convexity of learning objectives and estimating the quantities needed for optimization algorithms, such as gradients. While we do not address the non-convexity, we present an optimization solution that ex- ploits the so far unused “geometry” in the objective function in order to best make use of the estimated gradients. Previous work attempted similar goals with preconditioned methods in the Euclidean space, such as L-BFGS, RMSprop, and ADA-grad. In stark contrast, our approach combines a non-Euclidean gradient method with preconditioning. We provide evidence that this combination more accurately captures the geometry of the objective function compared to prior work. We theoretically formalize our arguments and derive novel preconditioned non-Euclidean algorithms. The results are promising in both computational time and quality when applied to Restricted Boltzmann Machines, Feedforward Neural Nets, and Convolutional Neural Nets.

Many recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers leverage continuous dynamics to define a transition kernel that efficiently explores a target distribution. In tandem, a focus has been on devising scalable variants that subsample the data and use stochastic gradients in place of full-data gradients in the dynamic simulations. However, such stochastic gradient MCMC samplers have lagged behind their full-data counterparts in terms of the complexity of dynamics considered since proving convergence in the presence of the stochastic gradient noise is non-trivial. Even with simple dynamics, significant physical intuition is often required to modify the dynamical system to account for the stochastic gradient noise. In this paper, we provide a general recipe for constructing MCMC samplers--including stochastic gradient versions--based on continuous Markov processes specified via two matrices. We constructively prove that the framework is complete. That is, any continuous Markov process that provides samples from the target distribution can be written in our framework. We show how previous continuous-dynamic samplers can be trivially reinvented in our framework, avoiding the complicated sampler-specific proofs. We likewise use our recipe to straightforwardly propose a new state-adaptive sampler: stochastic gradient Riemann Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGRHMC). Our experiments on simulated data and a streaming Wikipedia analysis demonstrate that the proposed SGRHMC sampler inherits the benefits of Riemann HMC, with the scalability of stochastic gradient methods.

Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding reinforcement learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) by deriving tight sample complexity bounds. However, in many real-world applications, an interactive learning agent operates for a fixed or bounded period of time, for example tutoring students for exams or handling customer service requests. Such scenarios can often be better treated as episodic fixed-horizon MDPs, for which only looser bounds on the sample complexity exist. A natural notion of sample complexity in this setting is the number of episodes required to guarantee a certain performance with high probability (PAC guarantee). In this paper, we derive an upper PAC bound of order O(|S|²|A|H² log(1/δ)/ɛ²) and a lower PAC bound Ω(|S||A|H² log(1/(δ+c))/ɛ²) (ignoring log-terms) that match up to log-terms and an additional linear dependency on the number of states |S|. The lower bound is the first of its kind for this setting. Our upper bound leverages Bernstein's inequality to improve on previous bounds for episodic finite-horizon MDPs which have a time-horizon dependency of at least H³.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal can lead to arbitrarily inaccurate estimates of the target distribution. This paper presents a new method for automatically adapting the proposal using an approximation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the proposal distribution. The method is very flexible, applicable to any parameterized proposal distribution and it supports online and batch variants. We use the new framework to adapt powerful proposal distributions with rich parameterizations based upon neural networks leading to Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (NASMC). Experiments indicate that NASMC significantly improves inference in a non-linear state space model outperforming adaptive proposal methods including the Extended Kalman and Unscented Particle Filters. Experiments also indicate that improved inference translates into improved parameter learning when NASMC is used as a subroutine of Particle Marginal Metropolis Hastings. Finally we show that NASMC is able to train a latent variable recurrent neural network (LV-RNN) achieving results that compete with the state-of-the-art for polymorphic music modelling. NASMC can be seen as bridging the gap between adaptive SMC methods and the recent work in scalable, black-box variational inference.