A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the $d$-Sphere and a large-scale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research.

Heuristic optimisers which search for an optimal configuration of variables relative to an objective function often get stuck in local optima where the algorithm is unable to find further improvement. The standard approach to circumvent this problem involves periodically restarting the algorithm from random initial configurations when no further improvement can be found. We propose a method of partial reinitialization, whereby, in an attempt to find a better solution, only sub-sets of variables are re-initialised rather than the whole configuration. Much of the information gained from previous runs is hence retained. This leads to significant improvements in the quality of the solution found in a given time for a variety of optimisation problems in machine learning.

Approximate Message Passing (AMP) has been shown to be an excellent statistical approach to signal inference and compressed sensing problem. The AMP framework provides modularity in the choice of signal prior; here we propose a hierarchical form of the Gauss-Bernouilli prior which utilizes a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) trained on the signal support to push reconstruction performance beyond that of simple iid priors for signals whose support can be well represented by a trained binary RBM. We present and analyze two methods of RBM factorization and demonstrate how these affect signal reconstruction performance within our proposed algorithm. Finally, using the MNIST handwritten digit dataset, we show experimentally that using an RBM allows AMP to approach oracle-support performance.

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov models, and to any datasets generated by emission distributions in the exponential family. Our experiment results on two discrete datasets show that our inference is both more efficient and more accurate than its uncollapsed version, stochastic variational inference.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) [1] are popular probabilistic models for modelling sequential data in a variety of fields including natural language processing, speech recognition, weather forecasting, financial prediction and bioinformatics. However, their traditional inference methods such as vari-ational inference (VI) [2] and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [3] are not readily scalable to large datasets. For example, one dataset in our experiment consists of 100 million observations. An important milestone for scaling VI was made by Hoffman et al. [4], who proposed stochastic VI (SVI) that computes cheap gradients based on minibatches of data, updating the model parameters before a complete pass of the full dataset. A recent scalable and more accurate algorithm was proposed by Foulds et al. [5], who applied such stochastic optimization to the collapsed latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) [6], and their stochastic collapsed variational inference (SCVI) algorithm has been successful in large scale topic modelling.

Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is based on a novel family of particle-based variational approximations that can be fit using simple, fast, deterministic search techniques. Like Monte Carlo, DPVI can handle multiple modes, and yields exact results in a well-defined limit. Like unstructured mean-field, DPVI is based on optimizing a lower bound on the partition function; when this quantity is not of intrinsic interest, it facilitates convergence assessment and debugging. Like both Monte Carlo and combinatorial search, DPVI can take advantage of factorization, sequential structure, and custom search operators. This paper defines DPVI particle-based approximation family and partition function lower bounds, along with the sequential DPVI and local DPVI algorithm templates for optimizing them. DPVI is illustrated and evaluated via experiments on lattice Markov Random Fields, nonparametric Bayesian mixtures and block-models, and parametric as well as non-parametric hidden Markov models. Results include applications to real-world spike-sorting and relational modeling problems, and show that DPVI can offer appealing time/accuracy trade-offs as compared to multiple alternatives.

We introduce a model-free algorithm for learning in Markov decision processes with parameterized actions--discrete actions with continuous parameters. At each step the agent must select both which action to use and which parameters to use with that action. We introduce the Q-PAMDP algorithm for learning in these domains, show that it converges to a local optimum, and compare it to direct policy search in the goalscoring and Platform domains.

Kalman Filters are one of the most influential models of time-varying phenomena. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption in a variety of disciplines. Motivated by recent variational methods for learning deep generative models, we introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad spectrum of Kalman filters. Of particular interest is the use of temporal generative models for counterfactual inference. We investigate the efficacy of such models for counterfactual inference, and to that end we introduce the "Healing MNIST" dataset where long-term structure, noise and actions are applied to sequences of digits. We show the efficacy of our method for modeling this dataset. We further show how our model can be used for counterfactual inference for patients, based on electronic health record data of 8,000 patients over 4.5 years.

To identify the location of objects of a particular class, a passive computer vision system generally processes all the regions in an image to finally output few regions. However, we can use structure in the scene to search for objects without processing the entire image. We propose a search technique that sequentially processes image regions such that the regions that are more likely to correspond to the query class object are explored earlier. We frame the problem as a Markov decision process and use an imitation learning algorithm to learn a search strategy. Since structure in the scene is essential for search, we work with indoor scene images as they contain both unary scene context information and object-object context in the scene. We perform experiments on the NYU-depth v2 dataset and show that the unary scene context features alone can achieve a significantly high average precision while processing only 20-25\% of the regions for classes like bed and sofa. By considering object-object context along with the scene context features, the performance is further improved for classes like counter, lamp, pillow and sofa.

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to represent the local policy of each agent. These variable-size FSCs are constructed using a stick-breaking prior, leading to a new framework called \emph{decentralized stick-breaking policy representation} (Dec-SBPR). This approach learns the controller parameters with a variational Bayesian algorithm without having to assume that the Dec-POMDP model is available. The performance of Dec-SBPR is demonstrated on several benchmark problems, showing that the algorithm scales to large problems while outperforming other state-of-the-art methods.