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 Markov Models


Compressed Conditional Mean Embeddings for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

AAAI Conferences

We present a model-based approach to solving Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the system dynamics are learned using conditional mean embeddings (CMEs). This class of methods comes with strong performance guarantees, and enables planning to be performed in an induced finite (pseudo-)MDP, which approximates the MDP, but can be solved exactly using dynamic programming. Two drawbacks of existing methods exist: firstly, the size of the induced finite (pseudo-)MDP scales quadratically with the amount of data used to learn the model, costing much memory and time when planning with the learned model; secondly, learning the CME itself using powerful kernel least-squares is costly – a second computational bottleneck. We present an algorithm which maintains a rich kernelized CME model class, but solves both problems: firstly we demonstrate that the loss function for the CME model suggests a principled approach to compressing the induced (pseudo-)MDP, leading to faster planning, while maintaining guarantees; secondly we propose to learn the CME model itself using fast sparse-greedy kernel regression well-suited to the RL context. We demonstrate superior performance to existing methods in this class of modelbased approaches on a range of MDPs.


Reinforcement Learning with Parameterized Actions

AAAI Conferences

We introduce a model-free algorithm for learning in Markov decision processes with parameterized actions—discrete actions with continuous parameters. At each step the agent must select both which action to use and which parameters to use with that action. We introduce the Q-PAMDP algorithm for learning in these domains, show that it converges to a local optimum, and compare it to direct policy search in the goal-scoring and Platform domains.


Decoding Hidden Markov Models Faster Than Viterbi Via Online Matrix-Vector (max, +)-Multiplication

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for the maximum a posteriori decoding (MAPD) of time-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (HMM), improving the worst-case running time of the classical Viterbi algorithm by a logarithmic factor. In our approach, we interpret the Viterbi algorithm as a repeated computation of matrix-vector (max, +)-multiplications. On time-homogeneous HMMs, this computation is online: a matrix, known in advance, has to be multiplied with several vectors revealed one at a time. Our main contribution is an algorithm solving this version of matrix-vector (max,+)-multiplication in subquadratic time, by performing a polynomial preprocessing of the matrix. Employing this fast multiplication algorithm, we solve the MAPD problem in O(mn 2 /log n) time for any time-homogeneous HMM of size n and observation sequence of length m, with an extra polynomial preprocessing cost negligible for m > n . To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm for the MAPD problem requiring subquadratic time per observation, under the assumption — usually verified in practice — that the transition probability matrix does not change with time.


Distance Minimization for Reward Learning from Scored Trajectories

AAAI Conferences

Many planning methods rely on the use of an immediate reward function as a portable and succinct representation of desired behavior. Rewards are often inferred from demonstrated behavior that is assumed to be near-optimal. We examine a framework, Distance Minimization IRL (DM-IRL), for learning reward functions from scores an expert assigns to possibly suboptimal demonstrations. By changing the expert’s role from a demonstrator to a judge, DM-IRL relaxes some of the assumptions present in IRL, enabling learning from the scoring of arbitrary demonstration trajectories with unknown transition functions. DM-IRL complements existing IRL approaches by addressing different assumptions about the expert. We show that DM-IRL is robust to expert scoring error and prove that finding a policy that produces maximally informative trajectories for an expert to score is strongly NP-hard. Experimentally, we demonstrate that the reward function DM-IRL learns from an MDP with an unknown transition model can transfer to an agent with known characteristics in a novel environment, and we achieve successful learning with limited available training data.


Building End-To-End Dialogue Systems Using Generative Hierarchical Neural Network Models

AAAI Conferences

We investigate the task of building open domain, conversational dialogue systems based on large dialogue corpora using generative models. Generative models produce system responses that are autonomously generated word-by-word, opening up the possibility for realistic, flexible interactions. In support of this goal, we extend the recently proposed hierarchical recurrent encoder-decoder neural network to the dialogue domain, and demonstrate that this model is competitive with state-of-the-art neural language models and back-off n-gram models. We investigate the limitations of this and similar approaches, and show how its performance can be improved by bootstrapping the learning from a larger question-answer pair corpus and from pretrained word embeddings.


Solving Risk-Sensitive POMDPs With and Without Cost Observations

AAAI Conferences

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often used to model planning problems under uncertainty. The goal in Risk-Sensitive POMDPs (RS-POMDPs) is to find a policy that maximizes the probability that the cumulative cost is within some user-defined cost threshold. In this paper, unlike existing POMDP literature, we distinguish between the two cases of whether costs can or cannot be observed and show the empirical impact of cost observations. We also introduce a new search-based algorithm to solve RS-POMDPs and show that it is faster and more scalable than existing approaches in two synthetic domains and a taxi domain generated with real-world data.


Detection of Plan Deviation in Multi-Agent Systems

AAAI Conferences

Plan monitoring in a collaborative multi-agent system requires an agent to not only monitor the execution of its own plan, but also to detect possible deviations or failures in the plan execution of its teammates. In domains featuring partial observability and uncertainty in the agents’ sensing and actuation, especially where communication among agents is sparse (as a part of a cost-minimized plan), plan monitoring can be a significant challenge. We design an Expectation Maximization (EM) based algorithm for detection of plan deviation of teammates in such a multi-agent system. However, a direct implementation of this algorithm is intractable, so we also design an alternative approach grounded on the agents’ plans, for tractability. We establish its equivalence to the intractable version, and evaluate these techniques in some challenging tasks.


A Probabilistic Approach to Knowledge Translation

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we focus on a novel knowledge reuse scenario where the knowledge in the source schema needs to be translated to a semantically heterogeneous target schema. We refer to this task as “knowledge translation” (KT). Unlike data translation and transfer learning, KT does not require any data from the source or target schema. We adopt a probabilistic approach to KT by representing the knowledge in the source schema, the mapping between the source and target schemas, and the resulting knowledge in the target schema all as probability distributions, specially using Markov random fields and Markov logic networks. Given the source knowledge and mappings, we use standard learning and inference algorithms for probabilistic graphical models to find an explicit probability distribution in the target schema that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the implicit distribution. This gives us a compact probabilistic model that represents knowledge from the source schema as well as possible, respecting the uncertainty in both the source knowledge and the mapping. In experiments on both propositional and relational domains, we find that the knowledge obtained by KT is comparable to other approaches that require data, demonstrating that knowledge can be reused without data.


A Scalable Framework to Choose Sellers in E-Marketplaces Using POMDPs

AAAI Conferences

In multiagent e-marketplaces, buying agents need to select good sellers by querying other buyers (called advisors). Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) have shown to be an effective framework for optimally selecting sellers by selectively querying advisors. However, current solution methods do not scale to hundreds or even tens of agents operating in the e-market. In this paper, we propose the Mixture of POMDP Experts (MOPE) technique, which exploits the inherent structure of trust-based domains, such as the seller selection problem in e-markets, by aggregating the solutions of smaller sub-POMDPs. We propose a number of variants of the MOPE approach that we analyze theoretically and empirically. Experiments show that MOPE can scale up to a hundred agents thereby leveraging the presence of more advisors to significantly improve buyer satisfaction.


Offline Evaluation of Online Reinforcement Learning Algorithms

AAAI Conferences

In many real-world reinforcement learning problems, we have access to an existing dataset and would like to use it to evaluate various learning approaches. Typically, one would prefer not to deploy a fixed policy, but rather an algorithm that learns to improve its behavior as it gains more experience. Therefore, we seek to evaluate how a proposed algorithm learns in our environment, meaning we need to evaluate how an algorithm would have gathered experience if it were run online. In this work, we develop three new evaluation approaches which guarantee that, given some history, algorithms are fed samples from the distribution that they would have encountered if they were run online. Additionally, we are the first to propose an approach that is provably unbiased given finite data, eliminating bias due to the length of the evaluation. Finally, we compare the sample-efficiency of these approaches on multiple datasets, including one from a real-world deployment of an educational game.