We consider high-dimensional distribution estimation through autoregressive networks. By combining the concepts of sparsity, mixtures and parameter sharing we obtain a simple model which is fast to train and which achieves state-of-the-art or better results on several standard benchmark datasets. Specifically, we use an L1-penalty to regularize the conditional distributions and introduce a procedure for automatic parameter sharing between mixture components. Moreover, we propose a simple distributed representation which permits exact likelihood evaluations since the latent variables are interleaved with the observable variables and can be easily integrated out. Our model achieves excellent generalization performance and scales well to extremely high dimensions.

Perhaps the most important news of our day is that datasets--not algorithms--might be the key limiting factor to development of human-level artificial intelligence. At the dawn of the field of artificial intelligence, in 1967, two of its founders famously anticipated that solving the problem of computer vision would take only a summer. Now, almost a half century later, machine learning software finally appears poised to achieve human-level performance on vision tasks and a variety of other grand challenges. What took the AI revolution so long? A review of the timing of the most publicized AI advances over the past thirty years suggests a provocative explanation: perhaps many major AI breakthroughs have actually been constrained by the availability of high-quality training datasets, and not by algorithmic advances.

We propose to model the fixation locations of the human eye when observing a still image by a Markovian point process in R 2 . Our approach is data driven using k-means clustering of the fixation locations to identify distinct salient regions of the image, which in turn correspond to the states of our Markov chain. Bayes factors are computed as model selection criterion to determine the number of clusters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the behaviour of the human eye differs from this model when colour information is removed from the given image.

What a wonderful treasure trove this paper is! Schmidhuber provides all the background you need to gain an overview of deep learning (as of 2014) and how we got there through the preceding decades. Starting from recent DL results, I tried to trace back the origins of relevant ideas through the past half century and beyond. The main part of the paper runs to 35 pages, and then there are 53 pages of references. Now, I know that many of you think I read a lot of papers – just over 200 a year on this blog – but if I did nothing but review these key works in the development of deep learning it would take me about 4.5 years to get through them at that rate! And when I'd finished I'd still be about 6 years behind the then current state of the art!

The official title of this free book available in PDF format is Machine Learning Cheat Sheet. See table of content screenshot below. The chapters 17 to 28 (the most interesting ones in my opinion) seem like a work in progress - I'm sure the authors intend to make them a bit bigger. For a more modern and applied book, get Dr Granville's book on data science.

Internet user behavior models characterize user browsing dynamics or the transitions among web pages. The models help Internet companies improve their services by accurately targeting customers and providing them the information they want. For instance, specific web pages can be customized and prefetched for individuals based on sequences of web pages they have visited. Existing user behavior models abstracted as time-homogeneous Markov models cannot efficiently model user behavior variation through time. This demo presents DECT, a scalable time-variant variable-order Markov model. DECT digests terabytes of user session data and yields user behavior patterns through time. We realize DECT using Apache Spark and deploy it on top of Yahoo! infrastructure. We demonstrate the benefits of DECT with anomaly detection and ad click rate prediction applications. DECT enables the detection of higher-order path anomalies and provides deep insights into ad click rates with respect to user visiting paths.

Probabilistic models with weighted formulas, known as Markov models or log-linear models, are used in many domains. Recent models of weighted orderings between elements that have been proposed as flexible tools to express preferences under uncertainty, are also potentially useful in applications like planning, temporal reasoning, and user modeling. Their computational properties are very different from those of conventional Markov models; because of the transitivity of the “less than” relation, standard methods that exploit structure of the models, such as variable elimination, are not directly applicable, as there are no conditional independencies between the orderings within connected components. The best known algorithms for general inference inthese models are exponential in the number of statements. Here, we present the first algorithms that exploit the available structure. We begin with the special case of models in the form of chains; we present an exact O(n^3) algorithm, where n is the total number of elements. Next, we generalize this technique to models in which the set of statements are comprised of arbitrary sets of atomic weighted preference formulas (while the query and evidence are conjunctions of atomic preference formulas), and the resulting exact algorithm runs in time O(m * n^2 * n^c), where m is the number of preference formulas, n is the number of elements, and c is the maximum number of elements in a linear cut (which depends both on the structure of the model and the order in which the elements are processed)—therefore, this algorithm is tractable for cases in which c can be bounded to a low value. Finally, we report on the results of an empirical evaluation of both algorithms, showing how they scale with reasonably-sized models.

We introduce the concept of weighted rules under the stable model semantics following the log-linear models of Markov Logic. This provides versatile methods to overcome the deterministic nature of the stable model semantics, such as resolving inconsistencies in answer set programs, ranking stable models, associating probability to stable models, and applying statistical inference to computing weighted stable models. We also present formal comparisons with related formalisms, such as answer set programs, Markov Logic, ProbLog, and P-log.

Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our ac- tion planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typ- ically unobservable, and must be inferred in order to learn new skills by demonstration, or to as- sist others in completing their tasks. For example, an assistant who has learned the subgoal struc- ture of a colleague’s task can more rapidly rec- ognize and support their actions as they unfold. Here we model how humans infer subgoals from observations of complex action sequences using a nonparametric Bayesian model, which assumes that observed actions are generated by approxi- mately rational planning over unknown subgoal sequences. We test this model with a behavioral experiment in which humans observed different se- ries of goal-directed actions, and inferred both the number and composition of the subgoal sequences associated with each goal. The Bayesian model predicts human subgoal inferences with high ac- curacy, and significantly better than several al- ternative models and straightforward heuristics. Motivated by this result, we simulate how learn- ing and inference of subgoals can improve perfor- mance in an artificial user assistance task. The Bayesian model learns the correct subgoals from fewer observations, and better assists users by more rapidly and accurately inferring the goal of their actions than alternative approaches.

This paper presents to the best of our knowledge the first end-to-end object tracking approach which directly maps from raw sensor input to object tracks in sensor space without requiring any feature engineering or system identification in the form of plant or sensor models. Specifically, our system accepts a stream of raw sensor data at one end and, in real-time, produces an estimate of the entire environment state at the output including even occluded objects. We achieve this by framing the problem as a deep learning task and exploit sequence models in the form of recurrent neural networks to learn a mapping from sensor measurements to object tracks. In particular, we propose a learning method based on a form of input dropout which allows learning in an unsupervised manner, only based on raw, occluded sensor data without access to ground-truth annotations. We demonstrate our approach using a synthetic dataset designed to mimic the task of tracking objects in 2D laser data — as commonly encountered in robotics applications — and show that it learns to track many dynamic objects despite occlusions and the presence of sensor noise.