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 Markov Models


Visualizing and Understanding Sum-Product Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are recently introduced deep tractable probabilistic models by which several kinds of inference queries can be answered exactly and in a tractable time. Up to now, they have been largely used as black box density estimators, assessed only by comparing their likelihood scores only. In this paper we explore and exploit the inner representations learned by SPNs. We do this with a threefold aim: first we want to get a better understanding of the inner workings of SPNs; secondly, we seek additional ways to evaluate one SPN model and compare it against other probabilistic models, providing diagnostic tools to practitioners; lastly, we want to empirically evaluate how good and meaningful the extracted representations are, as in a classic Representation Learning framework. In order to do so we revise their interpretation as deep neural networks and we propose to exploit several visualization techniques on their node activations and network outputs under different types of inference queries. To investigate these models as feature extractors, we plug some SPNs, learned in a greedy unsupervised fashion on image datasets, in supervised classification learning tasks. We extract several embedding types from node activations by filtering nodes by their type, by their associated feature abstraction level and by their scope. In a thorough empirical comparison we prove them to be competitive against those generated from popular feature extractors as Restricted Boltzmann Machines. Finally, we investigate embeddings generated from random probabilistic marginal queries as means to compare other tractable probabilistic models on a common ground, extending our experiments to Mixtures of Trees.


An example Markov Decision Process model on setting rewards in a text sentence?

#artificialintelligence

I'm looking to build a MDP and a reinforcement program in Python which works on generating text based on reward points in training data which is text sentences. I could not find any basic example program models which gives idea on how to build MDP on text sentences training data or identify which reinforcement model to use to generate texts. Can you please provide some suggestions / advice.


Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python

#artificialintelligence

The Hidden Markov Model or HMM is all about learning sequences. A lot of the data that would be very useful for us to model is in sequences. Stock prices are sequences of prices. Language is a sequence of words. Credit scoring involves sequences of borrowing and repaying money, and we can use those sequences to predict whether or not you're going to default.


Learning Temporal Dependence from Time-Series Data with Latent Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the setting where a collection of time series, modeled as random processes, evolve in a causal manner, and one is interested in learning the graph governing the relationships of these processes. A special case of wide interest and applicability is the setting where the noise is Gaussian and relationships are Markov and linear. We study this setting with two additional features: firstly, each random process has a hidden (latent) state, which we use to model the internal memory possessed by the variables (similar to hidden Markov models). Secondly, each variable can depend on its latent memory state through a random lag (rather than a fixed lag), thus modeling memory recall with differing lags at distinct times. Under this setting, we develop an estimator and prove that under a genericity assumption, the parameters of the model can be learned consistently. We also propose a practical adaption of this estimator, which demonstrates significant performance gains in both synthetic and real-world datasets.


An Exclusive Look at How AI and Machine Learning Work at Apple โ€“ Backchannel

#artificialintelligence

Three years earlier, Apple had been the first major tech company to integrate a smart assistant into its operating system. Siri was the company's adaptation of a standalone app it had purchased, along with the team that created it, in 2010. Initial reviews were ecstatic, but over the next few months and years, users became impatient with its shortcomings. All too often, it erroneously interpreted commands. So Apple moved Siri voice recognition to a neural-net based system for US users on that late July day (it went worldwide on August 15, 2014.)


The Speech Recognition Wiki

#artificialintelligence

In acoustic modelling Artificial Neural Networks can be used as an alternative approach to Hidden Markov Models for phoneme recognition. A pre-processed feature vector is fed into the input layer of a neural network. The goal is to correctly match different phones to phonems, which can then be further processed in the language model. The dynamic nature of speech is an impairing factor when using artificial neural networks for phonem recognition. Traditional neural networks require the phones to be perfectly aligned in time to allow for flawless allocation.


Master the Basics of Machine Learning With These 6 Resources

#artificialintelligence

It seems like machine learning and artificial intelligence are topics at the top of everyone's mind in tech. Be it autonomous cars, robots, or machine intelligence in general, everyone's talking about machines getting smarter and being able to do more. At the same time, for many developers, machine learning and artificial intelligence are nebulous terms representing complex mathematical and data problems they just don't have the time to explore and learn. As I've spoken with lots of developers and CTOs about Fuzzy.io and our mission to make it easy for developers to start bringing intelligent decision-making to their software without needing huge amounts of data or AI expertise, some were curious to learn more about the greater landscape of machine learning. Here are some of the links to articles, podcasts and courses discussing some of the basics of machine learning that I've shared with them.


Outlier Detection on Mixed-Type Data: An Energy-based Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Outlier detection amounts to finding data points that differ significantly from the norm. Classic outlier detection methods are largely designed for single data type such as continuous or discrete. However, real world data is increasingly heterogeneous, where a data point can have both discrete and continuous attributes. Handling mixed-type data in a disciplined way remains a great challenge. In this paper, we propose a new unsupervised outlier detection method for mixed-type data based on Mixed-variate Restricted Boltzmann Machine (Mv.RBM). The Mv.RBM is a principled probabilistic method that models data density. We propose to use \emph{free-energy} derived from Mv.RBM as outlier score to detect outliers as those data points lying in low density regions. The method is fast to learn and compute, is scalable to massive datasets. At the same time, the outlier score is identical to data negative log-density up-to an additive constant. We evaluate the proposed method on synthetic and real-world datasets and demonstrate that (a) a proper handling mixed-types is necessary in outlier detection, and (b) free-energy of Mv.RBM is a powerful and efficient outlier scoring method, which is highly competitive against state-of-the-arts.


Datasets VS Algorithms - A Breakthrough in AI 6x Faster -

#artificialintelligence

The past years have witnessed strong emergence for different datasets and algorithms repositories. Some inquiries accompanied this emergence. An increasing amount of market research started to investigate which is more important for the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) sciences, which segments are of highest demand and can have greater market share in the future. By reviewing the artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs timeline over 30 years, Wissner-Gross found that the availability of high-quality datasets was the key limiting factor for AI advances and not algorithms. He also found that high-quality dataset availability can cause a breakthrough in the field of AI six times faster than Algorithms.


Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning Without Episodes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This is a brief technical note to clarify some of the issues with applying the application of the algorithm posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) in environments without fixed episodes. In particular, this paper aims to: - Review some of results which have been proven for finite horizon MDPs (Osband et al 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2016) and also for MDPs with finite ergodic structure (Gopalan et al 2014). - Review similar results for optimistic algorithms in infinite horizon problems (Jaksch et al 2010, Bartlett and Tewari 2009, Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2011), with particular attention to the dynamic episode growth. - Highlight the delicate technical issue which has led to a fault in the proof of the lazy-PSRL algorithm (Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2015). We present an explicit counterexample to this style of argument. Therefore, we suggest that the Theorem 2 in (Abbasi-Yadkori and Szepesvari 2015) be instead considered a conjecture, as it has no rigorous proof. - Present pragmatic approaches to apply PSRL in infinite horizon problems. We conjecture that, under some additional assumptions, it will be possible to obtain bounds $O( \sqrt{T} )$ even without episodic reset. We hope that this note serves to clarify existing results in the field of reinforcement learning and provides interesting motivation for future work.