I have a little secret: I don't like the terminology, notation, and style of writing in statistics. I find it unnecessarily complicated. This shows up when trying to read about Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Take, for example, the abstract to the Markov Chain Monte Carlo article in the Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a technique for estimating by simulation the expectation of a statistic in a complex model. Successive random selections form a Markov chain, the stationary distribution of which is the target distribution.

We introduce Delay Pruning, a simple yet powerful technique to regularize dynamic Boltzmann machines (DyBM). The recently introduced DyBM provides a particularly structured Boltzmann machine, as a generative model of a multi-dimensional time-series. This Boltzmann machine can have infinitely many layers of units but allows exact inference and learning based on its biologically motivated structure. DyBM uses the idea of conduction delays in the form of fixed length first-in first-out (FIFO) queues, with a neuron connected to another via this FIFO queue, and spikes from a pre-synaptic neuron travel along the queue to the post-synaptic neuron with a constant period of delay. Here, we present Delay Pruning as a mechanism to prune the lengths of the FIFO queues (making them zero) by setting some delay lengths to one with a fixed probability, and finally selecting the best performing model with fixed delays. The uniqueness of structure and a non-sampling based learning rule in DyBM, make the application of previously proposed regularization techniques like Dropout or DropConnect difficult, leading to poor generalization. First, we evaluate the performance of Delay Pruning to let DyBM learn a multidimensional temporal sequence generated by a Markov chain. Finally, we show the effectiveness of delay pruning in learning high dimensional sequences using the moving MNIST dataset, and compare it with Dropout and DropConnect methods.

Bibliographic analysis considers the author's research areas, the citation network and the paper content among other things. In this paper, we combine these three in a topic model that produces a bibliographic model of authors, topics and documents, using a nonparametric extension of a combination of the Poisson mixed-topic link model and the author-topic model. This gives rise to the Citation Network Topic Model (CNTM). We propose a novel and efficient inference algorithm for the CNTM to explore subsets of research publications from CiteSeerX. The publication datasets are organised into three corpora, totalling to about 168k publications with about 62k authors. The queried datasets are made available online. In three publicly available corpora in addition to the queried datasets, our proposed model demonstrates an improved performance in both model fitting and document clustering, compared to several baselines. Moreover, our model allows extraction of additional useful knowledge from the corpora, such as the visualisation of the author-topics network. Additionally, we propose a simple method to incorporate supervision into topic modelling to achieve further improvement on the clustering task.

Several machine learning problems arising in natural language processing can be modeled as a sequence labeling problem. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a Bayesian approach to learning such problems in a kernel based framework. We develop Gaussian process models based on pseudo-likelihood to solve sequence labeling problems. The pseudo-likelihood model enables one to capture multiple dependencies among the output components of the sequence without becoming computationally intractable. We use an efficient variational Gaussian approximation method to perform inference in the proposed model. We also provide an iterative algorithm which can effectively make use of the information from the neighboring labels to perform prediction. The ability to capture multiple dependencies makes the proposed approach useful for a wide range of sequence labeling problems. Numerical experiments on some sequence labeling problems in natural language processing demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or belongs to a parametric family. In this paper, we study the estimation of an $m$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with only smoothness assumptions, such as H\"olderian conditions, on the emission densities. By leveraging some recent advances in continuous linear algebra and numerical analysis, we develop a computationally efficient spectral algorithm for learning nonparametric HMMs. Our technique is based on computing an SVD on nonparametric estimates of density functions by viewing them as \emph{continuous matrices}. We derive sample complexity bounds via concentration results for nonparametric density estimation and novel perturbation theory results for continuous matrices. We implement our method using Chebyshev polynomial approximations. Our method is competitive with other baselines on synthetic and real problems and is also very computationally efficient.

We establish general conditions under which Markov chains produced by the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method will and will not be geometrically ergodic. We consider implementations with both position-independent and position-dependent integration times. In the former case we find that the conditions for geometric ergodicity are essentially a non-vanishing gradient of the log-density which asymptotically points towards the centre of the space and does not grow faster than linearly. In an idealised scenario in which the integration time is allowed to change in different regions of the space, we show that geometric ergodicity can be recovered for a much broader class of tail behaviours, leading to some guidelines for the choice of this free parameter in practice.

Secret to GoogleBrain and RankBrain algorithm revealed. One is going to give a historical overview about GoogleBrain and analyse the pattern, then we will conclude our finding about the current situation and future changes in search engine algorithm. Back in 2006 there were some interests in implementing artificial intelligence in Google search engine algorithm. A few years later in 2014, GoogleBrain was established after acquisition of DeepMind, a British artificial intelligence company which was founded in 2010. They worked on how to play video games based on machine learning and artificial neural networks (ANNs).

This would limit me to predicting changes one district at a time. I'm still in the planning stage of this homework assignment, but before I went too far down the HMM track I wanted to see if I'm barking up the right tree. I want to predict the number of Ebola cases by geographical district, over time. I have a data set which tracks new confirmed Ebola cases across 20 districts, through 100 weeks. This data is in the form of discrete integers representing the number of confirmed new cases.

This paper presents an end-to-end framework for task-oriented dialog systems using a variant of Deep Recurrent Q-Networks (DRQN). The model is able to interface with a relational database and jointly learn policies for both language understanding and dialog strategy. Moreover, we propose a hybrid algorithm that combines the strength of reinforcement learning and supervised learning to achieve faster learning speed. We evaluated the proposed model on a 20 Question Game conversational game simulator. Results show that the proposed method outperforms the modular-based baseline and learns a distributed representation of the latent dialog state.

Which authors of this paper are endorsers? Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)